Chris Camillo @ChrisCamillo

Being smart matters less than being smart differently. $20k to $80M by getting ahead of undiscovered niches. $AMZN

Dumb Signal has archived 3,945 posts from Chris Camillo (@ChrisCamillo) and classified 165 as real trade calls — each priced the day it was made and graded by direction-signed returns at 1D / 1W / 1M / 1Y, deletion-proof.

Recent trade calls

@ChrisCamillo Sep 19, 2025 · 19:50 ET stock 1st mention

@PowersWils84543 @iwantmorecars Haven’t done enough work on $SOFI to comment

$SOFI

@ChrisCamillo Sep 19, 2025 · 18:11 ET stock

@Jiggiexx @s_curves_boutit It’s a moving target but best guess would be a 1-year delay on that earlier timeline due to the struggles at Optimus this summer. So assuming Optimus 3 is capable, best estimate is 1M cumulative Optimus bots by end of 2031.

$TSLA

@ChrisCamillo Sep 18, 2025 · 22:41 ET stock

@ThirteenCanuck Doubt we see Optimus v3 doing much of anything before Q1 ‘26 but maybe we get a preview sooner

$TSLA

@ChrisCamillo Sep 18, 2025 · 12:42 ET stock trade position

@s_curves_boutit My long Tesla thesis hasn’t changed, just the timeline has shifted due to engineering missteps on Optimus 2.

$TSLA

return	1D	1W	1M	1Y	now
$TSLAlong	+2.2%	+1.6%	+5.4%	—	-25.3%

@ChrisCamillo Sep 18, 2025 · 12:21 ET stock

Talking to a top non-Tesla roboticist yesterday about Optimus and he said, “I’m pro-robot, I hope Elon hits it out of the park.” The robotic age is being fueled by the mission itself, not the rivalry.

$TSLA

@ChrisCamillo Sep 17, 2025 · 09:04 ET stock

As pure social arb as it gets. $SPHR

$SPHR

@ChrisCamillo Sep 15, 2025 · 17:22 ET stock

If $SPHR goes any higher I might need to rent it out to celebrate with my FinX fam.

$SPHR

@ChrisCamillo Sep 15, 2025 · 09:18 ET stock 1st mention trade

Exited the Labubu Popmart trade last week on flattening consumer data.

$9992

return	1D	1W	1M	1Y	now
$9992short

@ChrisCamillo Sep 12, 2025 · 12:33 ET stock

Hard to see $MSFT letting OpenAI off the profit sharing hook for under 30% equity, which at today’s valuations would be the biggest one-time investment gain in corporate history.

$MSFT

@ChrisCamillo Sep 11, 2025 · 23:23 ET stock

@LoloJoho99572 It’s unfortunate but I’m not seeing anything interesting in the public market outside of Tesla for Optimus but that requires taking on auto and robotaxi risk

$TSLA

@ChrisCamillo Sep 07, 2025 · 14:25 ET stock

@DanDong812312 @ABC12D2 Varies by company, but for $LULU the just-reported $240M tariff hit cuts annual profit by about 14%.

$LULU

@ChrisCamillo Sep 06, 2025 · 17:51 ET stock

@merkle_eric @JonBryant421 They’re all burning cash, but Google and Meta have unrelated cash flow to cover it, while OpenAI and Anthropic have massive AI ARR plus insatiable investor demand. XAI has neither - an infusion or acquisition by Tesla may be the fix.

$GOOGL$META$TSLA

@ChrisCamillo Sep 05, 2025 · 23:34 ET stock

@Somnium_Magnus Optimus isn’t where it should be, and that’s on him. He’s said it’s the company’s future, and he needs to start treating it that way. I think he will.

$TSLA

@ChrisCamillo Sep 05, 2025 · 23:25 ET stock

If a trillion-dollar pay package gets Elon locked back in with intensity, it might go down as the best money $TSLA shareholders ever spent.

$TSLA

@ChrisCamillo Sep 05, 2025 · 22:18 ET stock

@Jukanlosreve OAI is months from $20B ARR, holds 80%+ AI market share, and 1B users. Capital markets will keep funding that path, but if not, they can always slow frontier model spend. The real question is whether they can convert Microsoft’s $120B future rev share liability into equity

$MSFT

@ChrisCamillo Sep 05, 2025 · 22:01 ET stock

@peachteadrink37 @wholemars @Jason @herbertong Jason’s take on Optimus are reasonable for someone with surface-level insight. I agree and have touted Tesla’s capital, resources, creativity, and speed edge over competitors. This I why Optimus is positioned to be a op 3 bot company. But his logic on Elon’s manufacturing

$TSLA

@ChrisCamillo Sep 05, 2025 · 20:38 ET stock

@VelichkoYanchev Unprecedented and tough to game out, especially with Elon and Tesla involved. Expect the unexpected.

$TSLA

@ChrisCamillo Sep 05, 2025 · 17:12 ET stock

@ElonMuskSavage Same with Robotaxi and Optimus. Sky-high ceiling, but full execution isn’t there yet and a lot is sitting on Elon’s shoulders right now.

$TSLA

@ChrisCamillo Sep 05, 2025 · 15:01 ET stock 1st mention

@LukeNeeley26 Anything’s possible. That said, OAI with ~1B users is months from $20B ARR and could see another ~$25B cash from SoftBank EOY if they resolve profit conversion and the Microsoft equity negotiation. Lots of unknowns and moving parts for every frontier model.

$MSFT

@ChrisCamillo Sep 05, 2025 · 13:38 ET stock

@MuldoonMartin More likely $TSLA does the investing/acquiring direct

$TSLA

@ChrisCamillo Sep 05, 2025 · 13:29 ET stock

@DarkStoneCap @elonmusk I agree he has always found a way. That way for XAI appears to be $TSLA

$TSLA

@ChrisCamillo Sep 05, 2025 · 13:14 ET stock

@beefcubee @darthvaderbater The investor is $TSLA. Most of the private investors I know putting money into XAI this Summer are doing so under the assumption that they sell to Tesla next yr

$TSLA

@ChrisCamillo Sep 05, 2025 · 13:12 ET stock

@purvil_g We all want XAI to flourish. A Tesla acquisition is probably its best chance.

$TSLA

@ChrisCamillo Sep 05, 2025 · 13:01 ET stock

@SnowballHustle I’m very much pro Grok and XAI. It’s not what I think but what has already happened. Their fundraising hit a wall and most paths leads to Tesla as a stop gap savior

$TSLA

@ChrisCamillo Sep 05, 2025 · 12:56 ET stock

@RMadelmayer Neutral. I think it’s more likely than not that Tesla fully acquires XAI

$TSLA