Dumb Signal has archived 2,008 posts
from π§ (@Pentosh1) and classified
116 as real trade calls β each priced the day it was
made and graded by direction-signed returns at 1D / 1W / 1M / 1Y, deletion-proof.
Look at all those underside retests.
Despite all the hootin and hollerin from these young whippersnappers, $sol is up 10% from its lowest weekly close over a month ago. $BTC is up 5-6% from its lowest weekly close, and $ETH is up 20%.
There has been no reclaims, just underside retests. Not a lot of fun volatility. Just boring chop. I do think downside is quite limited, but again, this next cycle upside is too. We can only do the best with what we are given and make the most of it.
β Quoting @Pentosh1
$SOL$BTC$ETH
@Pentosh1
Jul 30, 2026 Β· 10:15 ET
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Wow $NBIS 30% today. This has been a very volatile ride since I originally bought at 166 lmao. We have seen it go +40% from entry last week, into a -10% loss and then up 30% today. I shaved 20% off at 194 and will look to re-buy that and lower the effective cost a bit more. Normally I would have sold a big win like that early. I'm going to consider myself a bit lucky here with the amount of vol. It was quite painful seeing those swings and just sitting there watching that PNL go all over the place. I will continue to trade around the core, bc I do think this is a great long term bet so not willing to fully exit, and bc I still really liked the entry.
$NBIS
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $NBISlong |
+1.0% | β | β | β | +1.0% |
$SNDK earnings august 5th
Going to be an interesting week for memory ahead
$SNDK
@Pentosh1
Jul 28, 2026 Β· 12:19 ET
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$ETH still the strongest major, if 1700's come again next month, it could be a good spot to double down. Something to hunt for the next couple weeks. Short term upside may be the low 2000's.
Pre-mid terms my expectations are a bit of chop. That is the general range Im working with currently
β Quoting @Pentosh1
$ETH
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $ETHlong |
-0.8% | β | β | β | -4.1% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 28, 2026 Β· 11:26 ET
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@philxnft i bought eth in 1700's, pump 1701 lol. i just dont like the upside of crypto and think its going to be crap. its not really that incredibly attractive at all imo. sol is goign to do what a 2-3x this cycle?
$ETH$SOL
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $ETHlong |
-0.8% | β | β | β | -4.1% |
| $SOLlong |
-0.4% | β | β | β | -2.7% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 28, 2026 Β· 11:16 ET
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This doesn't really say much bc of notional exposure isnt really terrible by any means. So there is no real context in terms of what % is deployed or overall drawdown. But I talk about defense often. and I live by that. I would never put myself in a position where something could materially negatively impact me or the future. That is a big reason why I also have a family office now where the focus isn't on having beta to the market.
I always always always keep a big portion in box spreads, and in general non correlated assets/fund mangers that are non directional like Qube, Statar, special credit etc like Chicago atlantic, etc. This helps smooth out the path of returns and reduce overall volatility. I also have never once flexed a + pnl in terms of the exact dollar amount im up or down on a trade. But I dont mind sharing the loss porn. We all have it. Its unavoidable and none of us are perfect
Im blessed to be in a position to have days like this. Obviously I bought quite a bit on July 17th after waiting 6 weeks to grab thos entries on NBIS, sndk, ewy, and AAOI with the plan of only selling SNDK and EWY which I did at least sell those two on the rally. NBIS I doubled the position. AAOI is now at a loss, NBIS is back to where I originally bought but now at a loss after the add. This also includes BB which that position is almost entirely de-risked or risk free which we traded quite well. I don't expect v reversals either, but i do think a lot of these are attractive entry points, and we grabbed them. 40-60% down, and did that with patience. There are a lot of people who rode those down. Things of course can get worse. We can also always have a big time aspect of chop on these. But I think overall, the risk management, and timing has been incredibly strong and consistent. If made further changes, I'll be sure to share them but wanted to share this.
This also doesnt reflect realized gains for the month. But just wanted to share on a day that isnt so great.
β Quoting @Pentosh1
$NBIS$SNDK$EWY$AAOI$BB
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $AAOIlong |
-13.2% | β | β | β | +7.0% |
| $BBlong |
-3.5% | β | β | β | +4.3% |
| $EWYlong |
-4.8% | β | β | β | +3.7% |
| $NBISlong |
-12.7% | β | β | β | +12.2% |
| $SNDKlong |
-7.3% | β | β | β | +10.8% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 28, 2026 Β· 10:38 ET
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I think i did quite well. Of course having nbis bounce 40% in a week and not taking profit sucks but I do like the value here.
I sold sndk /ewy and derisked those while keeping NBIS / AAOI. So that offsets a good amount of this.
NBIS is right where i bought, AAOI at a loss. I got to buy these 50% from there highs. avoided the crypto drawdown.
The box spreads, are doing box spread things. They get a little more than the risk free rate.
My family office stuff is doing really well, Qube is doing 30%+ a year, Statar also doing great. I have talked about these a number of times. Hows your family office doing?
$NBIS$SNDK$EWY$AAOI
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $AAOIlong |
-13.2% | β | β | β | +7.0% |
| $EWYshort |
+4.8% | β | β | β | -3.7% |
| $NBISlong |
-12.7% | β | β | β | +12.2% |
| $SNDKshort |
+7.3% | β | β | β | -10.8% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 27, 2026 Β· 12:55 ET
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@wockjones @bubbleboi :) i already sold that one, as said here. was only playing sndk for a bounce
https://t.co/Sk8zUY46hg
β Quoting @Pentosh1
$SNDK
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $SNDKshort |
+14.2% | β | β | β | +5.0% |
KYC coded.
This was always going to happen in some way to $HYPE. Especially with trading US securities etc
However, I don't think it will have to be long term bearish. Will update my thoughts on that a bit, and have written why this doesn't have to be the end of the world as some people make it out to be
β Quoting @rajivpoc
$HYPE
The math is mathing for $pump
As on chain activity continues to grow it should be a large beneficiary by default.
Hate it or love it. Itβs here to stay.
And I say this as someone who has been a pump hater https://t.co/I4go3QoLNr https://t.co/KNNv2N1pPP
β Quoting @pentosh1
$PUMP
$PUMP still looking very constructive imo. nice s/r flip potentially forming
$PUMP
Global liquidity I think has hit an ath.
In 2020. Rates were being cut. Now they could be raised.
People were locked inside getting stimmies. Today. People are outside.
Itβs really just not the same at all.
Capital and liquidity is in abundance
Iβm not saying btc isnβt a great buy here. I just think itβs clear and has been for some time where the capital is and has been going. And thatβs equities. Especially AI ones.
$BTC
@Pentosh1
Jul 23, 2026 Β· 12:03 ET
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@Sammy_Paradise7 @wiseeeee2 not out of bb, idk how to make my views any clearer on that lmao. i wont be out of it for a few years either. hype i cut at 66 tho for now.
$BB$HYPE
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $BBlong |
-1.0% | -2.2% | β | β | -2.2% |
| $HYPEshort |
+0.1% | +2.8% | β | β | +9.4% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 23, 2026 Β· 10:09 ET
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$NBIS 40% off the lows in under a week is crazy work. I almost doubled the position at 197 but decided to hold off lmao. oops
but I will get that in at some point in the next week or two.
The worst buy hit +13%
semis just continue to provide the best opportunities in any market and the most volatility for those who like that
β Quoting @Pentosh1
$NBIS
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $NBISlong |
-15.0% | -14.7% | β | β | -13.9% |
A bit of chop, a bit of time, and no V reversal. Time needed
$BTC, $ETH, and $SOL weekly shown. https://t.co/dpp7whUzkr https://t.co/f89otLWFwu
β Quoting @Pentosh1
$BTC$ETH$SOL
@seethrunoise idk, all the btc miners have switched to data centers bc its more profitable.
$BTC
@jellysmithrave In 1-2 days. Theyβve rallied more than btc has in a month off its lows
And in the last 4 months. Have rallied more than btc has off its lows from 2022
$BTC
@Pentosh1
Jul 21, 2026 Β· 11:26 ET
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$SHAZ also looking like it may be forming a bottom
I have this ranked behind $NBIS, just bc I think it will be more volatile in both directions long term. It has more upside potential, but the same goes for downside.
Buy near $60 would be great. fwiw I didnt get any new fills since it didnt' spike lower. So this is one I missed getting adds on.
β Quoting @Pentosh1
$SHAZ$NBIS
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $NBISlong |
+0.6% | -21.8% | β | β | -12.3% |
| $SHAZlong |
-0.7% | -36.6% | β | β | -32.0% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 21, 2026 Β· 11:14 ET
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$CRDO is another one I'd like to build a position in, I started a partial position today. Going to try to take my time on this but at least started exposure. As not in a huge rush atm in the market.
For anything that I view as a longer term trade, I'll start doing a writeup on if I'm viewing it on a 6+ month lens.. So this one will receive that vs a trade. Which is typically days to weeks.
$CRDO
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $CRDOlong |
+2.0% | -14.1% | β | β | -7.5% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 21, 2026 Β· 10:39 ET
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@NoLimits_Crypto BB is part of my core, I have done long writeups on my views on it. None of them have changed. price doesnt go up in a straight line (had also told people at $13 it would likely pullback. I think in 1-3 years. It is 5x higher personally. at least
$BB
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $BBlong |
-0.4% | -10.0% | β | β | -6.1% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 21, 2026 Β· 10:19 ET
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@dippuccini I like shaz. Didn't get any additional fills but still in my position. Its a more volatile bet than NBIS but has more upside if they deliver
$NBIS
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $NBISlong |
+0.6% | -21.8% | β | β | -12.3% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 21, 2026 Β· 10:14 ET
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$AAOI + $NBIS both +22% in 2 trading days
Would like to add to these given the opportunity as well. NBIS a year from now, I think is much different price.
ups and downs as with everything. But they are positioned so well https://t.co/IjDsqrVFSs
β Quoting @Pentosh1
$AAOI$NBIS
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $AAOIlong |
-7.3% | -26.1% | β | β | -20.9% |
| $NBISlong |
+0.6% | -21.8% | β | β | -12.3% |
$NBIS lfg, great $NVDA news, even though the news is not technically entirely new.
Up nicely after hours. https://t.co/V74ocpJqDY https://t.co/IjDsqrV82U
β Quoting @Pentosh1
$NBIS$NVDA
@Pentosh1
Jul 20, 2026 Β· 14:29 ET
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@v1n5anity15 I bought 700k at market. You can verify via VPVR.
Iβve fudded pump many times. Including before unlocks.
To me. Looks like a skill issue
$PUMP
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $PUMPlong |
-1.1% | +4.5% | β | β | +5.0% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 19, 2026 Β· 22:46 ET
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@pointlesseth token unlock already happened.
i have fudded pump, and memes for some time. But the math maths. there is no platform that is generating these types of fees vs marketcap, not even hype. i also didnt buy the ico
i have no incentives here, outside of what i bought
$PUMP$HYPE
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $HYPElong |
-2.5% | -10.2% | β | β | -16.5% |
| $PUMPlong |
-1.1% | +4.5% | β | β | +5.0% |