Chris Camillo @ChrisCamillo

@amitisinvesting Small short position, so don’t read too much into that. The point of this thread is to push Google to clarify how AI-originating traffic is classified for advertisers and to restore data integrity to Google Trends for consumer research.

@bbquedveggies I hope not. Google needs to fix this which is mostly why I constructed this thread

@cryptoinsider22 Even under the assumption that those Gtrend charts are inflated I’m still very long $LULU

@Chris00847463 Appears to be inflated, not fully artificial. I’m still very long $LULU

11/11 If you’re seeing AI-generated search traffic or Google Trends anomalies, reply with receipts. If I’m missing something or misinterpreting, push back. Disclosure: Short $GOOGL, seeking truth and transparency in Google’s policies and disclosures.

10/11 Why it matters: advertisers could be unknowingly paying for AI traffic. Investors and analysts leaning on Google Trends data may be misled. And Google’s stock at all-time highs could be partly built on revenue from query growth that isn’t human. If Google is pushed to disclose and bill separately for AI vs human queries, expect volatility.

9/11 Now, Google Ads. This is where the money is made, and where policy clarity matters. Google says you don’t pay for invalid clicks but isn’t it suspicious that their Adwords policy does not mention clicks from AI apps or chatbots? If AI traffic is interacting with ads, advertisers may be paying for it without knowing the true value of that AI engagement.

7/11 I suspected AI might be driving these odd patterns, so I ran a micro test. Phrase “organic abercrombie socks” had 0 search history as it’s a made-up product category. After a handful of ChatGPT prompts, it showed up in Trends within 24h. Trends docs say Google filters out its own AI searches, but make no mention of external AIs like ChatGPT. The socks test suggests AI traffic leaks through.

5/11 Let’s talk about Google Trends. Investors treat it as a clean read on relative search volume, but recently when stacked against other signals, the picture doesn’t line up. Lululemon product terms (leggings, bras, tops, shorts, joggers, bags) are spiking this summer to holiday-level highs. In nearly two decades analyzing Google Trends data, I’ve never seen a mature brand’s products broadly spike like this outside peak seasonality. Implausible given that card swipes, web traffic, app engagement, and store traffic show only modest improvement. And it’s not just Lululemon…

4/11 Google’s response: “We continue to see overall query growth in Search.” Q2 showed $54.2B in Search revenue, +12% YoY. But this came right after Apple testified that human searches are falling. How is that possible?

3/11 Example: Apple’s Eddy Cue testified Safari searches fell for the first time in 22 years because of AI use. Alphabet stock dropped ~9% that day.

2/11 Evidence is piling up that people using AI queries through ChatGPT are generating Google searches and clicks at scale. That can mask slowing human search activity while still printing "growth."

1/11 🧵 THREAD: Google’s reported search query growth may be AI-driven, not human.

@Dewey_Capital @jbulltard1 Totally understand. $LULU is only medium conviction right now and evolving daily as I surface new data. I like giving my chartist friends a hard time, but they know it’s all love. Appreciate the kind words.

@PokeBearGuru @Mr_Derivatives Only medium conviction on $LULU

If you think Apple missed the mark on AI, what they’re cooking up in the robotics lab is looking to be a trainwreck of epic proportions. https://t.co/pemtuujWnL

@wook_404 I’m seeing several recent positives at $LULU others seem to be missing. We’ll find out soon enough if I’m right.

@Tamir99903Cohen I focus my research on sales-impacting data, not price action, but I’m now tracking $LULU consumer traction daily. Like the risk/reward and while still not a high conviction trade my visibility’s improving by the day.

@valuemaverick @childrensplace @hellokitty Nothing interesting in the data yet, but worth watching.

@ndsa1208 @T3_RM @JonahLupton @tonestar_x @DumbMoneyTV No opinion on $LULU beyond the current quarter

@T3_RM As you know, she flopped for Heydude and early data shows her AE impact is neutral. AE might get a short-term traffic bump, but I suspect the campaign will be a net loss if we look out a yr. TBD.

Recently told a friend the only thing that would get me long $SBUX is a Taylor Swift collab.

@fpl_haizees @DumbMoneyTV Probably not. I’ve already shared my Microsoft / OAI thesis and prefer everyone make their own trade decision rather than mirror mine, especially since I don’t have meaningful alpha on timing this one.

$ONON was just the appetizer. $LULU set to be the main course. Big thanks to those in the @DumbMoneyTV community for sharing daily store checks and insights on these trades. https://t.co/4dOGAXM521

Tough backdrop for apparel from tariffs, FX, and margin pressure, but I like the risk/reward on $ONON into earnings, expecting strong top-line growth as a stand out brand this Summer. The open question is whether investors will prioritize top line over margins.