Dumb Signal has archived 2,008 posts
from π§ (@Pentosh1) and classified
116 as real trade calls β each priced the day it was
made and graded by direction-signed returns at 1D / 1W / 1M / 1Y, deletion-proof.
My 2026 trading guidelines:
Trump escalates the heaviest on Fridays. Futures sell off
Trump always descalates every Sunday night without fail. Futures make new highs
If SPX is down more than 1bp at the end of a trading day then we announce that a deal with Iran is imminent. Possibly coming tomorrow. Every day is tomorrow technically
Rinse and repeat the above
$SPX
@DtDcTr What do you think they waited until now.
Do you think the buybacks are enough to overcome the supplies incoming 2x?
@Pentosh1
Apr 28, 2026 Β· 15:09 ET
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trade
position
When your semiconductor stocks are down 1% after being up 1000% ytd
We got the 80k push on $BTC. Whether this ends up as a macro LH is yet to be determined. But long term I don't think it's a bad spot with quite a bit of patience. Right now I think it's more important to reclaim a prev level if we want true expansion. For example 84-86k area HTF close for momentum
I'll likely return to crypto when things look better. 3 trades on btc in over half a year and one on HYPE and all went very well. this one I had already exited back when we first hit 76k a month ago tho. Sometimes less is more. Gotta know when to push it and when to sit back.
β Quoting @Pentosh1
$BTC$HYPE
Comparing MSTRβs BTC hoard to Blackrock in NVDA ignores why Bitcoin exists. Stocks are corporate equity. Bitcoin is supposed to be decentralized digital gold. no CEOs, no dilution, no single. entity control. Thatβs the whole point
Stocks are suppose to represent ownership in a hopefully productive company.
Bitcoin is a fixed supply. Decentralized asset with no issuer and no dilution.
It was literally created to be peer to peer cash with no centralized control.
They just canβt be compared imo.
$MSTR$NVDA
I do think that in general. The idea is kinda simple at least what we are seeing.
The biggest race between countries right now is AI. So anything from top down related to it has done well. There's been an infinite bid. I think it will deflate and re-inflate several times but overall the next few years should be exciting.
It has sucked up all the capital and attention though for anything that is at any point involved with AI for retail, vc's, countries etc competing for resources.
I also think to some degree we will see that in some defense/drone stocks do very well. Which also will be ai related.
Nope. I didnβt trade any of these 4.
One of them I did want to buy a week ago. But didnβt. Most the charts that look like this are in semis and are cyclical
I was early to energy/rare earths though
I only really got in stocks 12 months ago. I think a lot of it has been broadcasted like memory for example. Anything AI related.
It looks like defense will also have quite a few boom and bust cycles.
@anondeguerre Well some of these are like billions and billions and billions and billions in marketcap.
I donβt think the tickers matter. Theres like 100 charts that look like this in semiβs atm
@cmc816 yea. 2 of the others are semis then another one feels like crime lmao. 2 crime, 2 cyclicals
@Pentosh1
Apr 21, 2026 Β· 09:58 ET
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1st mention
@notthreadguy Thereβs a few out there that are up well over 100x lol
Ridiculous and Avis is just the same as rave lol
$CAR
@Pentosh1
Apr 15, 2026 Β· 12:11 ET
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1st mention
Might be time for $NKE to pivot to ai and quit the shoe business as well https://t.co/H8J7qmidar
β Quoting @Pentosh1
$NKE
@Pentosh1
Apr 13, 2026 Β· 14:09 ET
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1st mention
$SNDK plz go down fren π
$SNDK
@Pentosh1
Mar 19, 2026 Β· 09:31 ET
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1st mention
By the way, you can buy $OIL in the US for $97, and sell it in China for $150 and make a killing on arbitrage
free money on the ground, all you have to do is pick it up
$OIL
@Pentosh1
Mar 12, 2026 Β· 11:58 ET
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1st mention
2000 $BTC already for Saylor today. A record setting day inbound for STRC. I dont know how long he can sustain this pace, but any meaningful time will likely have a very large impact for $STRC. fun to watch and track
https://t.co/ZDSPcGcMTO
$STRC$BTC
@Pentosh1
Feb 18, 2026 Β· 17:01 ET
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@crypto_condom @Carvana Looking forward to closing it tmw. Gg
$CVNA
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $CVNAshort |
+7.9% | +7.4% | +22.2% | β | +13.8% |
@Pentosh1
Feb 18, 2026 Β· 17:00 ET
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1st mention
@crypto_condom @Carvana Letβs go. Iβve been sitting in this trade with you for a long time.
$CVNA
$btc has rallied 4-5k today in the first two hours since the daily open. Just as we planned. If it continues at this pace it could rally 40-50k by the close.
π π
$BTC
@Pentosh1
Feb 04, 2026 Β· 13:24 ET
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intent
Almost fully filled.
Want to reiterate Iβm not calling a bottom. I think that's going to take time to form. It's just a trade. My last trade was 84k-93k way back in Nov. I just would hate myself for not trying here which is a level that is a key HTF inflection point.
I think buying another 20k lower than that. Since it was there 2 weeks ago and 50k from the highs is likely a decent spot to take a shot. Right at or around the prev ath from last cycle for at least a bounce. I think it could even go as high as the y.o but we should trade into the mid 80's. If all goes well.
$BTC
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $BTClong |
-14.1% | -8.2% | -6.7% | β | -13.0% |
@BradPrick @chuck_xrp164 last time was 84k to 93k
this time I think will be 70-74k, mid 80's bounce then from there we will see.
$BTC
@Pentosh1
Feb 03, 2026 Β· 20:46 ET
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$BTC entry so far
have some bids still scattered lower.
$BTC
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $BTClong |
-14.1% | -8.2% | -6.7% | β | -13.0% |
Have only posted two $BTC trades in the past 3-4 months now. I think, trends take longer than people think. As do bottoms. People always underestimate the time aspect of markets and end up giving a lot of money back as a result.
I think crypto is largely struggling bc it has to compete with every other market right now. It's incredibly hard to compete with AI, bc AI isn't just AI. It has a lot of synergy across various markets, like energy, robotics, defense, minerals, magnets, you name it. It's a very real, tangible trade with results people can see and touch. We've seen the amounts of capital these things are drawing in which takes away from places like this. Trading equities has been a blast, and a bit refreshing. I again, will advocate for owning and trading both. I also feel, people see that many stocks are doing 5-10-25x and think. Why buy a shitcoin when I can buy a real company. And that's made it tough on alts. We need projects, that actually generate real revenue. Not much has come out the last several years outside of $HYPE, at least since the DeFi boom in 2018-2020.
BTC, is likely going to take time to form a bottom. If equities locally top soon that could be in the high 50's in a few months. I think it's worth being open to that idea. But locally here. I think 70-75k at least for a decent bounce and then we can evaluate based on how that market structure forms. You can trade less, and outperform everyone by just trading the extremes atm imo.
β Quoting @Pentosh1
$BTC$HYPE
@Pentosh1
Feb 01, 2026 Β· 23:16 ET
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Well. Itβs not March yet. But think this 70-75k area is attractive for $btc
Got some first small bids hit
Might become active in this market again for the first time in awhile
$BTC
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $BTClong |
-3.9% | -10.8% | -7.5% | β | -19.2% |
@Pentosh1
Jan 20, 2026 Β· 13:40 ET
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1st mention
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Absolute Worst case scenario things just kinda bleed out or go sideways for years while people invest in asset classes that go up or require allocation like defense, ai, robotics, etc with tangible results and fiduciary duties. And have charts like $mu that never give pullbacks (as someone who wanted one and never got one)
$MU
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $MUlong |
+6.6% | +12.4% | +14.3% | β | +125.6% |
$HYPE
imo will bounce to $33-34 next. from there idk. reclaim and it opens up a lot of upside but let's focus on one thing at a time
but i like the way the last 3 daily candles have or are in the process of forming
$HYPE
@Pentosh1
Nov 28, 2025 Β· 17:44 ET
stock
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Before this cycle even began. I had said that this cycle would likely be the worst yet for alts and laid out my thesis similar to the poster above.
I started playing heavily in stocks this year, mostly beginning in april. It's been great
I don't see why it matters WHERE you make your money or what ticker. As long as you put yourself in a position to win.
Some people can't adapt, and others can