Dumb Signal has archived 2,330 posts
from π§ (@Pentosh1) and classified
143 as real trade calls β each priced the day it was
made and graded by direction-signed returns at 1D / 1W / 1M / 1Y, deletion-proof.
@alisun0302 @fomosaurus They arenβt small anymore
Quite a few at 15-20B with zero revenue.
Scams pump the hardest
@Pentosh1
Oct 19, 2025 Β· 14:26 ET
stock
1st mention
@fomosaurus In talking to a lot of people I think most donβt realize how much things are up
Bc they use the index of SPX as the comparison vs an individual ticker. They will say. Oh stonks up 15% this year. Which isnβt a fair comparison.
Without realizing many are up 10x-100x even lmao
$SPX
@Pentosh1
Oct 17, 2025 Β· 10:48 ET
stock
1st mention
trade
position
My current tradfi setup is boring, but it's intentionally boring. We can go over it a bit now, and then later on get into more details around it.
I have viewed crypto as a barbell strategy since end of 21. Where, I take risk in crypto, but little risk outside it and nothing inbetween.. When money leaves, it never re-enters. That's a rule that I think the people who survive follow and allows you to hit "save game" on your net worth and compound wealth without the big drawdowns in this asset class.
At least twice a year I reset my trading account to a baseline number. The rest now goes into trad markets.
This year I shifted to a bit more risk from that complete barbell. Into a more traditional barbell. The design isn't for ultra high returns currently. But that can change as there is some flexibility
My current setup is something like this with different risk buckets:
1. Long/Short stocks and commodities
2: Hedge Fund exposure examples: (millennium, goldentree, discovery, chicago atlantic)
3. Bonds, purchased a bit before the last cuts (these will be rotated into stocks in a downturn) SPY box spreads via options
4. Very small vc exposure, private deals
Then some AQR delphi. There are a few funds within that. But one of them I'd highlight is AQR is for tax efficiency to offset some taxable gains
Very basic explanation of how they work.
You buy some stocks for $100.
Half of them go to 150
Half go to $50
The value is still the same. They then sell the losing stocks and immediately buy the closest beta to the stock they sold. So the bet is actually the same as well.
But now youβve locked in the $50 loss. But your portfolio is still the same value
On taxes it looks like you lost money. But the account value actually went up. You have realized losses but net portfolio gains. = tax offset, less tax paid and more gains and compounding.
$SPY
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $SPYlong |
+1.0% | +1.9% | +1.1% | β | +16.3% |
Was talking to this old bloke at the gym today, probably in his 70s and he saw the eth chart on my phone and he asked why the price was going the wrong way and what the red is. Says in all his years of investing in stocks they rarely see that and thought things going down was mostly a meme
Told him thatβs basically what most of crypto does everyday. That the ups last like 2 weeks.
Then he said. βIβm up 12x this year on my stock picksβ¦ faggotβ and walked away
$ETH
@juchawild I truly never understand these replies as it only matters when you took the trade. When btc hit 69l last year you could say the same thing.
Or sol this year
It implies you held for years. Bought the top and did nothing?
$BTC
$ETH maybe a little chopsolidation but then we see it teleport above 5k in the next couple weeks imo
a little patience goes a long ways here
$ETH
And this $btc bear market
Is it in the room with us now Peter? https://t.co/3cQMliA4vi https://t.co/NM9LOiHn2k
β Quoting @PeterSchiff
$BTC
$XPL update:
moon that https://t.co/3iHHGsFaJq https://t.co/LfdqqNp0YJ
β Quoting @Pentosh1
$XPL
@Pentosh1
Oct 03, 2025 Β· 10:40 ET
stock
1st mention
@Jim_buildr Usar and Intel in the past month alone https://t.co/HZMQ3ezzoe
β Quoting @mkkkmoo
$INTC
@cryptoklotz The reality is. That stock traders have outperformed crypto bros bigly.
If crypto is going to do something like that. It prob has to be in the next couple months imo
Itβs wild to me that there are many stocks that have done liquid 10-50x gains this cycle or similar returns to crypto of 17 and 21 while crypto just hasnβt been able to get that same bid thus far on medium to big caps so much
I failed to really capitalize on that in a meaningful way even though the idea was there. The execution was not
@B2Lammy @FloodCapital sold those a long time ago (it was a knife catch) and the dat trades imo are short term in general
@TheGreenCha5er Correct. Looks like a timely rotation
Btc into eth at 2.4k then into sol
I donβt care what the chain is as Iβm
Not a toxic maxi or tribalist.
Hard to comprehend? https://t.co/P9RbxLzPpD
β Quoting @Pentosh1
$BTC$ETH$SOL
@Pentosh1
Sep 09, 2025 Β· 10:53 ET
stock
trade
@FloodCapital Added another 10k shares this am
I still think it will be a few months before the market appreciates what theyβve done and are doing
@Professor_XN @OpenledgerFdn @binance yes, I was an early investor and am locked for 12 months.
and correct, I dont reply to tge tweets (and tbh most the time they dont do well at tge) this one has done great.
@Pentosh1
Sep 08, 2025 Β· 11:09 ET
stock
1st mention
The past 3 months has been free money and then more free money non stop
The eth dats sub 2.4k, Ena, Sol and even pump buybacks. In each case we were told at or around the lows for free rides
For the people who have faded them and there's been a few. You can dislike something and still make money on it. That's what we are here trading for
I could be a shit faggot penguin but still be a good trader
$ETH$ENA$SOL
@Pentosh1
Aug 27, 2025 Β· 11:31 ET
stock
1st mention
@cryptoklotz I understand this thought process but itβs not fair to compare the index to q small cap alt. It should be index vs index from here or alt vs stock
When you could have hit 10-40x on stocks in the past two years like hood. MSTR. NVDA. Coin. CRCl etc.
$HOOD$MSTR$NVDA$COIN$CRCL
Btc and eth are far more favorable Due to their narratives which sol kinda lacks currently.
Blackrock has also said they donβt plan to file ETFs around it for now and even if they did the demand would be far less.
Sol builds its entire narrative of βour tpsβ but it doesnβt have DeFi like eth, stable coins, or tom Lee.
Also higher inflation at 7% per year or so and being further down the risk curve. I donβt think we see anything like we have with btc and eth to that extent.
In conclusion. The demand would be far less. With far more risk bc itβs further down the risk curve. It will happen but in smaller batches imo
$BTC$ETH$SOL
BTC and ETH are both in the top 25 assets in the entire world
People def aren't "early" at this point and returns will continue to diminish as time goes on naturally
in terms of alts, its as you said. But the downside remains the same which is 100% with less and less 100x-1000x plays.
In saying that however, there is always a bubble somewhere.
japan 1980's stock market
1990's Dot com bubble
2000's housing
2017-current crypto (bubble is somewhat popping for alts)
2026-2040 prob AI / Robotics
People just need to migrate to the new feeding zones
$BTC$ETH
@skrollups Right but I laid out my thesis for the trade 2-3 weeks ago
Since then weβve seen an increase in the thesis points
More treasury buys
Less supply on exchanges
More in the staking Queue
Very reflexive
Another 5B to be bought by sbet alone as of July 24th
$SBET
Is it possible. Yes of course. Do I think its unlikely. Also yes. But would personally I will add more at 3.3
SBET will raise 5B, and be selling atm to buy more eth. They likely already have around 750-1B cash on hand ready to deploy and will continue to raise cash buying daily for months on end.
ETH on exchanges is at its lowest point (have to go back to eth ico)
Staked eth queue is larger than its ever been with the highest amount ever staked
There are multiple eth treasury companies, and likely a few more to be announced at or around that 500m mark
I think its easier to just buy dips and ride with those flows personally
$SBET
@Pentosh1
Jul 18, 2025 Β· 14:28 ET
stock
trade
@DJohnson_CPA @WazzCrypto Bought a small bag at 29.4 on this big dip
Iβm guessing they will be in a rush to deploy
$SBET
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $SBETlong |
-12.9% | -24.1% | -31.5% | -80.4% | -68.0% |
@WazzCrypto And selling to raise before then https://t.co/ZaDni71hGs
β Quoting @DJohnson_CPA
$SBET
@Pentosh1
Jul 18, 2025 Β· 14:23 ET
stock
1st mention
@WazzCrypto Sbet is likely down bc they are going to do this next week I believe
Prepping to ape 6B https://t.co/rmJgWcFC8B
β Quoting @DJohnson_CPA
$SBET
@Pentosh1
Jun 29, 2025 Β· 19:42 ET
stock
1st mention
@LigmaSqueeze Both Blackrock and Robinhood chose eth
Eth doesnβt have down time
Stables are issued on eth. It has all the infra and tvl
Solana so far is only for memes (basically)
$BLK$HOOD