Dumb Signal has archived 2,328 posts
from π§ (@Pentosh1) and classified
143 as real trade calls β each priced the day it was
made and graded by direction-signed returns at 1D / 1W / 1M / 1Y, deletion-proof.
@Pentosh1
Jul 23, 2026 Β· 12:03 ET
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@Sammy_Paradise7 @wiseeeee2 not out of bb, idk how to make my views any clearer on that lmao. i wont be out of it for a few years either. hype i cut at 66 tho for now.
$BB$HYPE
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $BBlong |
-1.0% | -2.2% | -6.8% | β | +4.8% |
| $HYPEshort |
+0.2% | +2.9% | -38.2% | β | -58.5% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 23, 2026 Β· 10:09 ET
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$NBIS 40% off the lows in under a week is crazy work. I almost doubled the position at 197 but decided to hold off lmao. oops
but I will get that in at some point in the next week or two.
The worst buy hit +13%
semis just continue to provide the best opportunities in any market and the most volatility for those who like that
β Quoting @Pentosh1
$NBIS
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $NBISlong |
-15.0% | -14.7% | -0.8% | β | +6.7% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 21, 2026 Β· 11:26 ET
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$SHAZ also looking like it may be forming a bottom
I have this ranked behind $NBIS, just bc I think it will be more volatile in both directions long term. It has more upside potential, but the same goes for downside.
Buy near $60 would be great. fwiw I didnt get any new fills since it didnt' spike lower. So this is one I missed getting adds on.
β Quoting @Pentosh1
$SHAZ$NBIS
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $NBISlong |
+0.6% | -21.8% | +1.5% | β | +8.7% |
| $SHAZlong |
-0.7% | -36.6% | -14.3% | β | -23.0% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 21, 2026 Β· 11:14 ET
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$CRDO is another one I'd like to build a position in, I started a partial position today. Going to try to take my time on this but at least started exposure. As not in a huge rush atm in the market.
For anything that I view as a longer term trade, I'll start doing a writeup on if I'm viewing it on a 6+ month lens.. So this one will receive that vs a trade. Which is typically days to weeks.
$CRDO
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $CRDOlong |
+2.0% | -14.1% | +3.3% | β | -13.0% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 21, 2026 Β· 10:39 ET
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@NoLimits_Crypto BB is part of my core, I have done long writeups on my views on it. None of them have changed. price doesnt go up in a straight line (had also told people at $13 it would likely pullback. I think in 1-3 years. It is 5x higher personally. at least
$BB
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $BBlong |
-0.4% | -10.0% | -9.5% | β | +0.6% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 21, 2026 Β· 10:19 ET
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@dippuccini I like shaz. Didn't get any additional fills but still in my position. Its a more volatile bet than NBIS but has more upside if they deliver
$NBIS
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $NBISlong |
+0.6% | -21.8% | +1.5% | β | +8.7% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 21, 2026 Β· 10:14 ET
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$AAOI + $NBIS both +22% in 2 trading days
Would like to add to these given the opportunity as well. NBIS a year from now, I think is much different price.
ups and downs as with everything. But they are positioned so well https://t.co/IjDsqrVFSs
β Quoting @Pentosh1
$AAOI$NBIS
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $AAOIlong |
-7.3% | -26.1% | +8.3% | β | -16.8% |
| $NBISlong |
+0.6% | -21.8% | +1.5% | β | +8.7% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 20, 2026 Β· 14:29 ET
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@v1n5anity15 I bought 700k at market. You can verify via VPVR.
Iβve fudded pump many times. Including before unlocks.
To me. Looks like a skill issue
$PUMP
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $PUMPlong |
-1.1% | +4.5% | +48.2% | β | +191.2% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 19, 2026 Β· 22:46 ET
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@pointlesseth token unlock already happened.
i have fudded pump, and memes for some time. But the math maths. there is no platform that is generating these types of fees vs marketcap, not even hype. i also didnt buy the ico
i have no incentives here, outside of what i bought
$PUMP$HYPE
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $HYPElong |
-2.5% | -10.2% | +11.5% | β | +46.0% |
| $PUMPlong |
-1.1% | +4.5% | +48.2% | β | +191.2% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 19, 2026 Β· 21:30 ET
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Let's talk $PUMP buybacks
Buybacks imo should always be viewed through the same lens as bodybuilding. You will not see the growth overnight, or the impact from lifting if you look in the mirror each day. It will however have an impact over time.
The coins themselves can be viewed as real physical supply. In a bear market, there is always more supply than demand. No coin is immune to that broadly speaking. In this case, they have removed 15.15% of the supply forever. Those coins are deleted, they can no longer be sold again.
Each day, the max supply shrinks, so the longer price trades at this mc with these revenues, the less supply is available. Eventually, all of that supply would be absorbed until there were no willing sellers at these prices. Short term flows dicate the intraday moves which are of course larger than the revenue. So its important to keep that in mind.
These revenues have largely been in a bear market, not in a bull market which could easily see these 2-3x. Either way. Time + revenue will do it's work. Just not always in the way you think.
It is clear to me that the sell momentum has stalled, and like a pendulum markets always swing the other way. Whether you agree with their business or not, the numbers are real, and verifiable on chain. Do you want to be right, or do you want to make money? That's the question. If we are entering a crypto bull market, than this is one of the best bets there is due to attention + the sol economy. it's a beneficiary of both. Imo, this is good for a few, to several multiples. But time will tell. 400k per day, over another 3-6 months at this MC? I'm not sure the willing supply exists at this price point. I think demand > supply. I dont think there is any large, liquid crypto that has this revenue to MC in terms of buybacks which makes this so appealing. It could, and should be trading much higher. Imo had to wait out the price capitulation + time capitulation for this to work
My plan is to add another 100m this week, bringing me to 500m Pump, and potentially, and tactically add another 500m at obvious HL points, or levels I deem important personally. When I have conviction on a trade, this is the way i do it. If I don't, I typically just set a hard entry/target.
β Quoting @Pentosh1
$PUMP
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $PUMPlong |
-1.1% | +4.5% | +48.2% | β | +191.2% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 19, 2026 Β· 20:56 ET
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$pump already +20%
Will look for spots to add and drop my thesis tmw. In terms of adding. Looking for logical HLβs of course https://t.co/KNNv2N1pPP
β Quoting @pentosh1
$PUMP
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $PUMPlong |
-1.1% | +4.5% | +48.2% | β | +191.2% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 19, 2026 Β· 20:05 ET
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If there is one thing I'm great at. It's knowing when to go on offense, and when to go on defense, and capture large parts of trends regardless of what market it is. Equities, or crypto. Especially the time aspect of defense which is where most people struggle. (see all the repeated bottom calls in the bear market on this platform) Right now, in crypto there are a few good long opps out there that should see some significant returns. But I dont think they are wide spread. Each cycle is less.
This past year I sat out crypto, outside of HYPE which luckily did almost a 3x from the original entry, and a few BTC scalps. The same can be said for 2022, where I largely sat out for a year. From above 60k to just under 20k.
There is a time and place for everything, and the time aspect needs a lot more respect and understanding.
I do my best to help people avoid the long, drawn out drawdowns, and try to get in the best trades possible on the long side. of course nobody is perfect, and we all make mistakes. But I do the best I can. And will continue to try to do that. Im looking forward to sharing a little more crypto content again.
$HYPE$BTC
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $BTClong |
+2.0% | -2.3% | +6.3% | β | +28.4% |
| $HYPElong |
-2.5% | -10.2% | +11.5% | β | +46.0% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 19, 2026 Β· 16:12 ET
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$PUMP average buy .001701. Good size bag.
Will look to add more on dips if given, and likely compound this on the way up. Last time we traded this we hit a 2x. This time I think the upside is a bit higher. Will write a more detailed thesis this week that I . But I think the time to fade this is over and we are going to see a very decent repricing on this.
This imo is one of the best r/r setups inside the sol eco. The math, is beginning to math finally.
$PUMP
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $PUMPlong |
+1.4% | +0.9% | +54.9% | β | +195.3% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 17, 2026 Β· 10:54 ET
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Grabbed some $EWY at 155.52, $AAOI at $93, $NBIS at 166.3, $SNDK at 1395. AAOI will be a longer term position for me, same with NBIS. Ewy and SNDK ill dump within the week most likely.
The one thing I would caution however is there's a very real possibility that we have some extended chop/sideways period due to the amount of deleveraging that occurred. I think it would be quite easy to get harmed each direction. At least until vol dies off a bit. These entries were the result of waiting 6 weeks. The market structure is pretty poor now overall, so I'd rather keep the higher conviction stuff, and start building those positions. As we could easily bleed lower. Will go into more of my detailed thinking tomorrow when I have some time. But the 6 weeks of waiting for these looks to be off to a great start each direction
β Quoting @Pentosh1
$EWY$AAOI$NBIS$SNDK
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $AAOIlong |
+0.6% | -2.2% | +46.7% | β | -3.1% |
| $EWYlong |
+0.2% | +0.3% | +10.6% | β | +12.5% |
| $NBISlong |
+2.8% | +5.7% | +56.3% | β | +32.7% |
| $SNDKlong |
+2.7% | +6.0% | +21.1% | β | +28.4% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 15, 2026 Β· 10:27 ET
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It's been a good year, and for the most part we cooked
avoided all the drawdown in crypto this year, and had been long hype + adding a lot on the way up as the core exposure
Got a good amount of the AI trade in stonks and general stock exposure for the past 18 months
longed eth at 1766. not crazy size tho
Also, just some general thoughts on this year below:
The average person would be better off trying to capture the meat of the move. vs trying to time bottoms. How many times did people call a macro bottom in the past year? it felt like everyday.
Let's keep this idea simple, Im going to oversimplify it but as a framework. lets say instead of catching a bottom. You pay a 20% premium from the lows to enter but you structurally get a reclaim. The first HH. You can then ride that up bc your invalidation is so so so so cheap at that point and so is the entry. You know the spot it can't lose structurally. if it's the start of an uptrend, you have all the upside without the time cost, opp costs, emotional costs, and very real drawdowns. And instead get to ride momentum from the reclaims.
Lets say $100 is that HH point, buying at $99 can be extremely expensive but buying at $101 can be very cheap. Bc of market structure + trend. The 99 can just be trend continuation and the next LH, while the 101 is a restest of a major reclaim that leads to continuation but also gives you a cheap exit if wrong.
$HYPE$ETH
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $ETHlong |
-2.8% | +0.9% | -1.9% | β | +40.0% |
| $HYPElong |
-9.2% | -11.2% | -15.5% | β | +36.4% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 14, 2026 Β· 08:23 ET
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$ETH is currently the most interesting major
On the eth/btc pair is is right under resistance where the prev LL had formed. So in
On the eth/sol pair its slowly been in an uptrend for the past year. In saying that, while it's at resistance on both. It looks decent. But it's also the reason I am not putting on a full position. This price can be expensive, while a reclaim can be cheap.
and USD pair is not too far above it's multi-year support
its also likely less crowded due to the hate. I don't care for it myself in saying that, and view owning it as a rental.
I started a 1/4 position in it at 1,766 and will look to hopefully get to add more to that over time. But at least have some exposure now
$ETH$BTC$SOL
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $BTClong |
-0.4% | +2.4% | -2.4% | β | +28.8% |
| $ETHlong |
+1.4% | +2.0% | -0.3% | β | +41.9% |
| $SOLlong |
-0.7% | +0.4% | -2.1% | β | +51.5% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 09, 2026 Β· 10:26 ET
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Iβd rather just trade in reality vs hope.
I am here to make money. Not try to make a square fit into a circular hole.
Iβll buy cryptos that are real. Like hype. Btc etc. but the rest. We are 15 years in with basically nothing to show.
We know the general capex of Ai. The people who fight it are prob quite unhappy.
$HYPE$BTC
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $BTClong |
+1.5% | +0.9% | +2.7% | β | +32.5% |
| $HYPElong |
+0.5% | -9.5% | -17.9% | β | +35.8% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 09, 2026 Β· 08:13 ET
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I once again, did not by the memory dip, those are up big today. Oh well. but I did get in $SHAZ on the latest dip and it looks like that will open up 20% above yesterdays lows. Still holding out on the big memory names for now. Hoping to eventually get MU in the sub 850 range.
$SHAZ$MU
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $MUlong |
-1.2% | -14.0% | -11.5% | β | +7.8% |
| $SHAZlong |
-6.7% | -18.0% | -37.8% | β | -31.6% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 01, 2026 Β· 20:44 ET
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BB is something I consider a core position in my portfolio. I've had to basically vertically accumulate it. Buy spikes down, sell those on the mean reversion back up, then keep the difference. with varying size.
In this instance, Im denominating in shares, not USD. I hold a core positionI believe in long term, and I trade a little around it. for example the 25k share buy and sell that i had around earnings. selling into spikes and buying dips on that. can have scalp account + core account
but technically you're harvesting volatility. so the effective cost price remains the same, but the amount of shares grow. the shares are just paid for by the volatility in the market vs deploying new cash in general.
the risk is if you sell some of the core, and its trending up then you end up with less shares. so if you're going to try that has to be very tactical.
selling high to rebuy lower is more accretive. 100 Γ 0.05/0.95 = +5.26 shares on a drop for example bc you redeploy the same dollars.
vs buy low and sell: 100 Γ 0.05/1.05 = +4.76 shares.
so best to harvest the chop, during times it is when it forms little ranges
$BB
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $BBlong |
-10.1% | -13.2% | -33.6% | β | -29.4% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 01, 2026 Β· 11:47 ET
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Sophon I never ended up actually working for. My father passed away a good year before they launched. I never got any compensation etc
Beam has a treasury that is worth more than the market cap. And we bought and burned over 200m worth of tokens. It was just in bear like anything else.
I also have all my tokens and am down over 8 figures on that. If someone would like to put up a million as a bet that this isnβt true. Iβd be happy to take that. Iβve never even taken my initials out since joining the team in Jan 2022
$BEAM$SOPH
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $BEAMlong |
+3.9% | +10.2% | -23.8% | β | -27.0% |
| $SOPHlong |
-4.3% | -1.4% | +1.4% | β | +49.9% |
@Pentosh1
Jun 29, 2026 Β· 11:53 ET
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$BB obviously we've been in this since the 5's and this has been a great move. My expectations are that we are coming into an area of HTF resistance so we will likely need to consolidate here above here for a bit. it may pullback (idk)
Dips if given, are an opportunity to buy. I myself, will be looking for them with the same strategy as on prev dips
buy, sell the rally, and keep the net difference at 0 cost essentially
$BB
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $BBlong |
+1.4% | -8.8% | -37.4% | β | -27.6% |
@Pentosh1
Jun 29, 2026 Β· 09:42 ET
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Let's go over $BOT since there's a lot of misunderstandings around it and NAV.
Why own bot? Bc you get liquid exposure to the leading robotics companies. It's essentially a bet that there will be mark appreciation from further funding rounds sometime over the next 12-18 months. *IF* you believe that happens, THEN its likely a pretty good bet. If you think Figure, apptronik, or any others raise more capital, then you essentially should see that jump in AUM. When value is created in the private rounds, it should be expressed in the public shares.
Two: you aren't going to get to buy it at nav bc that implies that you are going to buy a valuation that was never available to the public in the first place, and get to buy at that nav while being liquid while their shares are illiquid and may not IPO for several years. It's a closed end fund, of course there is a premium. You are paying a premium to get to trade liquid shares of pre-ipo companies
The main risk is that you see one of the portco's do a down round. But considering VC funding is set to increase over the next year or two for robotics. It is more likely than not you get to capture some of that upside.
This just my take, and opinion. Subject to change if new information comes in. In terms of the issuance, it is accretive and has been done privately. If you own shares, and they raise for example. 36m, your shares capture that value that bc it increases the nav per share . That money then goes on the books, which can then is re-invested into a new robotics company, which then in theory does a round, and we capture the mark up. Theoretically.
Do your own research. This is just my opinion.
I am long from 29. For you, you'll have to decide if its something you even want to own, and where it makes the most sense. My bet, or thesis, is that we see private valuations continue to markup further.
$BOT
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $BOTlong |
+19.4% | +1.5% | -18.2% | β | -21.1% |
@Pentosh1
Jun 26, 2026 Β· 13:17 ET
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@_sprotisma_ Yep, not saying to buy either of those today. I have no dram exposure yet, obviously in bb from the 5's.
$BB
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $BBlong |
+9.5% | +1.0% | -25.1% | β | -20.7% |
@Pentosh1
Jun 24, 2026 Β· 10:52 ET
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people have been buying the lows for almost a year fwiw. there hasnt been one yet. If I were to really, really invest here again which I will. I'd rather pay the small price of seeing a reclaim from a technical level. then try to knife catch. pay a small price to get in a trend and capture the meat of the move. otherwise, it makes no sense to me. for all i know we could still have time capitulation ahead. if this bases out. (idk)
i think its better to just go where the money is. I for example only traded and shared HYPE this year, and 3 btc trades which luckily were profitable. hype is where the money was in crypto. outside of that. all stocks. i can come right back here without having stayed and make it just as easily without having been raped over and over
$HYPE$BTC
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $BTClong |
-2.1% | -1.7% | +5.1% | β | +37.3% |
| $HYPElong |
+0.4% | -2.3% | -10.0% | β | +42.8% |
@Pentosh1
Jun 24, 2026 Β· 10:00 ET
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$BB + $1 since this post. I have kept the "free shares" and added them to my core position
So far have been able to accumulate 20k free shares on top of the original position without bringing up my original cost basis through buying the recent dips and selling those portions higher.
Original cost basis 5.79
Now 5.8 (with +20k shares)
$BB
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $BBlong |
+20.0% | +48.6% | -0.9% | β | +4.9% |