Dumb Signal has archived 2,328 posts
from π§ (@Pentosh1) and classified
143 as real trade calls β each priced the day it was
made and graded by direction-signed returns at 1D / 1W / 1M / 1Y, deletion-proof.
@Pentosh1
Aug 20, 2026 Β· 10:27 ET
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That's over a 2x+ on $PUMP from op + a scalp from the .028-3 area originally last week.
Around .04 the ico price, I assume is going to be a trickier spot so it could get a bit more sluggish. So I'm going to close out this thread/trade entirely and look for another setup or another trade entirely.
This will be something I likely trade a few times moving forward since I think the overall asset selection we have to trade leaves a lot to be desired.
β Quoting @Pentosh1
$PUMP
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $PUMPshort |
-5.8% | -27.1% | -10.8% | β | -53.6% |
$eth is the clear winner of majors.
Best performer thus far https://t.co/ad7Tm7MiVm
β Quoting @pentosh1
$ETH
$HYPE
Good shit https://t.co/ZuFe9tqRyq https://t.co/p3kK3niOsT
β Quoting @Pentosh1
$HYPE
Holy crap $hype
$HYPE
@R89Capital What if btc is just a risk off / defensive asset now and trades well when defensives do π
$BTC
Wow just saw $NBIS price. Very happy Peng today.
$NBIS
@Pentosh1
Aug 09, 2026 Β· 10:44 ET
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$PUMP coming into a logical spot to start trimming soon, and reload on a pullback from .0028-.003
However the ICO price is likely the stickiest place as there will be some people/ vc's with monthly unlocks that want out around there.
Very nice trend off the lows so far https://t.co/wwsAvk3wGm https://t.co/LYH3XWZVG7
β Quoting @Pentosh1
$PUMP
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $PUMPshort |
-3.8% | +0.3% | -61.3% | β | -120.4% |
@LucaNetz pengus looking good here
$PENGU
People have spent like 8 months tweeting about $btc pa while itβs largely been the same price. If you were a fruit fly. Thatβd be about 20 generations that would have passed for some perspective. While nothing really happened. 20 generations.
$BTC
@insainox Sol I think will be the eth of this cycle overall. It is over-owned relative to most things in the space.
$SOL$ETH
@Pentosh1
Aug 05, 2026 Β· 09:40 ET
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Current alt trades updates (outside of majors) eth + sol
$PUMP .001701 current .002530. 50%, coming into some resistance soon. Worth trimming. I assume once we cross the .003 range we'll start to see some heavier selling any time we approach ico price as some of those investors want to get out at break even and some unlocks will be sold there that haven't been yet.
$HYPE 52.20 current 56.81. Would like to get a good position on if we see 48-52 again.
Eth and Sol also never traded under entries either thus far. Although Sol Ill be out of pretty quick here.
Have had nearly a 100% hit rate all year on crypto although a small sample size. mostly by doing nothing and taking a few strategic longs. For example the big prev hype rally. And staying out of the way of the big down trends.
$PUMP$HYPE$ETH$SOL
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $ETHlong |
-0.3% | -1.6% | +28.8% | β | +40.6% |
| $HYPElong |
-1.3% | -1.6% | +48.3% | β | +60.1% |
| $PUMPlong |
-0.7% | +14.3% | +76.2% | β | +144.9% |
| $SOLlong |
-1.8% | +2.1% | +37.8% | β | +59.3% |
@jchapper123 @blknoiz06 Aaoi is one example. 79% past 5 days.
$AAOI
@Pentosh1
Aug 04, 2026 Β· 09:50 ET
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ai is once again sending to the heavens lmao.
Sold my $aaoi though. thats a huge move from last weeks lows in just a week. 75% in 7 days, and a bit of earnings front running. https://t.co/93BpIKnwDQ
β Quoting @Pentosh1
$AAOI
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $AAOIshort |
+2.3% | -2.1% | +23.7% | β | +24.6% |
Bc that doesnt accrue value to the token.
The emissions still are 5m a day at these prices, and much higher the higher price goes. Even with the new proposals it will still be inflationary.
it is also likely the more owned asset in the space on the speculative side. What makes me think that? When Eth was moving up, sol was the worst performer still of the majors
$ETH$SOL
@Pentosh1
Aug 03, 2026 Β· 12:13 ET
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only crypto changes for me is the following:
bought some $sol, not a lot at 73.58 this am and $hype at an average of 52.23. $PUMP is unchanged
If Sol passes these proposals I'll likely sell into that so its short term for me, honestly feels like it will be like eth from last cycle imo in terms of performance.
HYPE I bought back some of what I had previously sold. Not all yet, just due to the uncertainty of KYC stuff. But 48-52 is a good spot, especially with aqav2 beginning this month.
$SOL$HYPE$PUMP
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $HYPElong |
+2.0% | +2.0% | +51.8% | β | +68.9% |
| $PUMPlong |
+13.6% | +30.2% | +91.7% | β | +176.4% |
| $SOLlong |
+0.3% | +3.3% | +36.6% | β | +60.4% |
@Pentosh1
Aug 03, 2026 Β· 11:15 ET
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@realfeaq laugh at me all you want fren, IREN is trading at the same pirce it was a year ago. I'm up a very good amount on my NBIS buys.
I'm here to make money personally, idk about you.
$IREN$NBIS
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $IRENlong |
+2.8% | -2.5% | -0.4% | β | +2.8% |
| $NBISlong |
+6.2% | -13.4% | -4.0% | β | +11.0% |
$NBIS summer
$NBIS
Look at all those underside retests.
Despite all the hootin and hollerin from these young whippersnappers, $sol is up 10% from its lowest weekly close over a month ago. $BTC is up 5-6% from its lowest weekly close, and $ETH is up 20%.
There has been no reclaims, just underside retests. Not a lot of fun volatility. Just boring chop. I do think downside is quite limited, but again, this next cycle upside is too. We can only do the best with what we are given and make the most of it.
β Quoting @Pentosh1
$SOL$BTC$ETH
@Pentosh1
Jul 30, 2026 Β· 10:15 ET
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Wow $NBIS 30% today. This has been a very volatile ride since I originally bought at 166 lmao. We have seen it go +40% from entry last week, into a -10% loss and then up 30% today. I shaved 20% off at 194 and will look to re-buy that and lower the effective cost a bit more. Normally I would have sold a big win like that early. I'm going to consider myself a bit lucky here with the amount of vol. It was quite painful seeing those swings and just sitting there watching that PNL go all over the place. I will continue to trade around the core, bc I do think this is a great long term bet so not willing to fully exit, and bc I still really liked the entry.
$NBIS
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $NBISlong |
+1.1% | +0.8% | +11.0% | β | +25.2% |
$SNDK earnings august 5th
Going to be an interesting week for memory ahead
$SNDK
@Pentosh1
Jul 28, 2026 Β· 12:19 ET
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$ETH still the strongest major, if 1700's come again next month, it could be a good spot to double down. Something to hunt for the next couple weeks. Short term upside may be the low 2000's.
Pre-mid terms my expectations are a bit of chop. That is the general range Im working with currently
β Quoting @Pentosh1
$ETH
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $ETHlong |
-0.6% | -2.7% | +30.8% | β | +39.7% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 28, 2026 Β· 11:26 ET
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@philxnft i bought eth in 1700's, pump 1701 lol. i just dont like the upside of crypto and think its going to be crap. its not really that incredibly attractive at all imo. sol is goign to do what a 2-3x this cycle?
$ETH$SOL
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $ETHlong |
-0.6% | -2.7% | +30.8% | β | +39.7% |
| $SOLlong |
-0.2% | -0.1% | +48.0% | β | +59.8% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 28, 2026 Β· 11:16 ET
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This doesn't really say much bc of notional exposure isnt really terrible by any means. So there is no real context in terms of what % is deployed or overall drawdown. But I talk about defense often. and I live by that. I would never put myself in a position where something could materially negatively impact me or the future. That is a big reason why I also have a family office now where the focus isn't on having beta to the market.
I always always always keep a big portion in box spreads, and in general non correlated assets/fund mangers that are non directional like Qube, Statar, special credit etc like Chicago atlantic, etc. This helps smooth out the path of returns and reduce overall volatility. I also have never once flexed a + pnl in terms of the exact dollar amount im up or down on a trade. But I dont mind sharing the loss porn. We all have it. Its unavoidable and none of us are perfect
Im blessed to be in a position to have days like this. Obviously I bought quite a bit on July 17th after waiting 6 weeks to grab thos entries on NBIS, sndk, ewy, and AAOI with the plan of only selling SNDK and EWY which I did at least sell those two on the rally. NBIS I doubled the position. AAOI is now at a loss, NBIS is back to where I originally bought but now at a loss after the add. This also includes BB which that position is almost entirely de-risked or risk free which we traded quite well. I don't expect v reversals either, but i do think a lot of these are attractive entry points, and we grabbed them. 40-60% down, and did that with patience. There are a lot of people who rode those down. Things of course can get worse. We can also always have a big time aspect of chop on these. But I think overall, the risk management, and timing has been incredibly strong and consistent. If made further changes, I'll be sure to share them but wanted to share this.
This also doesnt reflect realized gains for the month. But just wanted to share on a day that isnt so great.
β Quoting @Pentosh1
$NBIS$SNDK$EWY$AAOI$BB
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $AAOIlong |
-13.2% | +49.3% | +28.5% | β | +12.6% |
| $BBlong |
-3.5% | +9.6% | +6.9% | β | +11.7% |
| $EWYlong |
-4.8% | +13.0% | +20.3% | β | +20.7% |
| $NBISlong |
-12.7% | +33.0% | +28.8% | β | +39.0% |
| $SNDKlong |
-7.3% | +30.2% | +35.5% | β | +58.7% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 28, 2026 Β· 10:38 ET
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I think i did quite well. Of course having nbis bounce 40% in a week and not taking profit sucks but I do like the value here.
I sold sndk /ewy and derisked those while keeping NBIS / AAOI. So that offsets a good amount of this.
NBIS is right where i bought, AAOI at a loss. I got to buy these 50% from there highs. avoided the crypto drawdown.
The box spreads, are doing box spread things. They get a little more than the risk free rate.
My family office stuff is doing really well, Qube is doing 30%+ a year, Statar also doing great. I have talked about these a number of times. Hows your family office doing?
$NBIS$SNDK$EWY$AAOI
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $AAOIlong |
-13.2% | +49.3% | +28.5% | β | +12.6% |
| $EWYshort |
+4.8% | -13.0% | -20.3% | β | -20.7% |
| $NBISlong |
-12.7% | +33.0% | +28.8% | β | +39.0% |
| $SNDKshort |
+7.3% | -30.2% | -35.5% | β | -58.7% |
@Pentosh1
Jul 27, 2026 Β· 12:55 ET
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@wockjones @bubbleboi :) i already sold that one, as said here. was only playing sndk for a bounce
https://t.co/Sk8zUY46hg
β Quoting @Pentosh1
$SNDK
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $SNDKshort |
+14.2% | -0.8% | -17.3% | β | -36.1% |