Serenity @aleabitoreddit

Yeah, I saw Quantum namedropped, alongside photonics/AI. Personally I think quantum sector is still a bit far out, Foxconn said commercialization was 2030. So even if quantum players get funding, I'm personally not too focused on that area aside from maybe Riber that dip in multiple areas.

Fun to see my highest conviction Neocloud pick in $NBIS age well. I wrote a thesis last year on the Neocloud sector becoming a major theme. And then picked the King. -> Nebius is #1 out of the entire sector from $IREN to $CRWV. $84 -> $260. Thesis validated by markets. https://t.co/RGOt3GSNjW https://t.co/1CKhfpy1BO

There we go. My CPO longs in Taiwan are finally starting to take off today. Shunsin +10% Foci +10% Xintec +10% Just waiting on Win Semi, Msscorp, and Nextronics to catch up.

Good times with $AEHR, it’s now ~$3.5B MC. Haven’t mentioned it as much since there’s nothing too new. Just waiting on volume orders for these types of players like $LPK, and others. https://t.co/W8k0ce3RSE https://t.co/MhEQmNgAek

$NBIS has anime plot armor! Happy to hear Weebius has been outperforming the market and Neocloud basket ( $IREN / $CIFR ). Last year post MSFT earnings, I gave a prediction after Q4 earnings, Nebius would reach a $100B MC. We’re currently sitting at $60B MC, getting close! https://t.co/e96TirkJT8 https://t.co/53pyspTHj9

Just some mobile shower thoughts around $XFAB and train of thought: 1. 800vdc $NVDA push look for GaN/SiC players / power semis. 2. $NVTS and other fabless/fab-lite beneficiaries of $NVDA push probably use foundry models 3. care more about Western supply chains over Asia, want to build up Western capabilities + Western premiums. 4 China has a lot of capacity, maybe risk into 2028, but again it’s building up Western supply chains 5. XFAB only high volume SiC foundry in America (others like $ON or Infineon are vertically integrated) 6. advanced 6in SiC, 8in GaN on Si, building out 8in GaN 7. Maybe likely they’re developing 8in SiC from CHIPS backing, just not public material 8. check SiC revenue -> 152% Y/Y growth okay. Probably something markets missed, since blended looks worse from automotive slump, that should come out recovery 9. $NVTS and others turns out to use $XFAB. $POWI cites $XFAB in filings, among others. 10. both are $NVDA power semi explicit partners, great exposure indicator to 800vdc power semi players. 11. US Dpt. of commerce cites $XFAB as only high volume SiC foundry in the US, $50M PMT 12. validation from US Gov about critical component in supply chains is amazing 13. EU CHIPS Act gives $XFAB $128M EU, for foundry (MEMS, AI, etc), okay turns out they’re critical MEMS player 14. So that’s validation from EU gov about critical component in supply chains, dual continent subsidies 15. So now we know $XFAB is a critical MEMS foundry so you get SiC capabilities, GaN development, and MEMS upside 16. they also got $47.6M EU funding for leading Silicon Photonics supply chain in EU. So that’s EU funding on multiple angles. 17. Turns out, I know all the players there from smartphotonics from $GFS deck. 18. $NVDA and $NOK are qualifying them for silicon photonics HVM. I think this is just a government backing angle for success in EU photonics so likely to succeed… kinda like how Us gov encourages everyone to use $INTC. 19. Okay chips act 2 is coming out next week… so they’ll probably get funding there or more revenue commitments 20. 1.28 p/b, now that’s probably just book cost? Likely coming out of $SOI type legacy drag cycle. 21. Did some modeling around actually replacement values, true replacement p/b cost likely ~.5/.7. 22. Getting business for free, while having upside from SiC near term into Silicon Photonics / GaN as main growth past H2 2027. Thoughts: derisked by p/b values + replacement value. maybe like 20% downside from macro. However, critical dual continent importance. So downside risk seems low, but upside is compelling. Lot of capex likely backstopped by upcoming chips act catalyst + national security concerns. Maybe 2.5-4x rerating seems possible/likely. Not a 10-20x, but recovery from depressed valuations from silicon photonics upside with SiC / GaN bridge. TLDR: likely trading lower than replacement value, dual continent subsidies likely subsidize capex. Gov grants shows importance to Western supply chains, photonics longer term upside, SiC/GaN demand likely near term upside and bridge. Don’t control any recent volatility, should shake out anyone not really confident in the thesis though. CHIPS act 2 from EU is coming up, $XFAB was listed in earlier blueprints for optical ecosystem, so should get a boost after that comes out as near term event catalysts. So now is the risk reward seems compelling, we’ll see if this is right or not

私の(4092)赤リンの投資シナリオ、誰か覚えてる？ ほぼ100%上がってるよ！ https://t.co/J5Db900gl2 https://t.co/a3tQZVZ6nO

Can’t believe $ARM went straight from $134 to $354 when I took positions. The ~$15B annual revenue coming from these cool name AI CPUs seemed a bit insane at the time. At Computex, looks like $NVDA is unveiling new ARM based processors too. Counterpoint them shows them dominating AI ASIC servers by 2029, projections which is crazy… GPU:CPU ratios are requiring more and more CPUs. Seems like they have everything going for them?

Okay chat, it’s been awhile since the previous one. And a ton of names from $VPG to $ASPI cooked. So crowdsourcing a new list: What’s your highest conviction ticker that you think can 10x in a short timeframe, and why?

@AsianbeBlazin Because I’m confident $SIVE management knows what to do by themselves. If they operated like $SNAP I’d be more activist.

The “You’re So Rich Now” $NVDA ETF. These were just some of the supply chain partners Jensen made a toast to with that comment: TSMC (https://t.co/klkdidhdwN / TSM) - $1.95T Micron (MU) - $1.10T Delta (https://t.co/QU9iDMM1OA) - $202.28B Amphenol ( $APH )- $183.00B Foxconn (https://t.co/aTlwrBvYTH) - $128.88B Vertiv Holdings ( $VRT ) - $121.26B Luxshare (https://t.co/HXnZe7hGCv) - $78.99B STMicroelectronics ( $STM )- $61.60B Unimicron (https://t.co/hpt0Ophv4o) - $52.90B Asia Vital (https://t.co/RvcM9ecvSB) - $33.27B Lite-On (https://t.co/m9p28o5iLO) - $16.97B King Slide Works (https://t.co/KiNhmXtumB) - $15.35B BizLink Holding (https://t.co/yNk855AwXy) - $12.95B Megmeet Electrical (https://t.co/YdTe5Lhinp) - $10.78B Innoscience (https://t.co/1unM4FPf65) - $8.30B Chenbro Micom (https://t.co/8RU12cTJDW) - $5.44B JPC (https://t.co/6EU7QhvSnh) - $1.15B WUS Printed Circuit (https://t.co/52yoDEJ8Wh) - $972M

Everyone is out there making life changing returns on $RDDT. Fully leveraged on the wrong $SPCE (Virgin Galactic) ticker. Instead of $SPCX, which is yet to launch. I guess this just goes to show how much retail demand there is for SpaceX’s IPO.

Per Foxconn shareholder meeting: CPO switch products expected to begin Q3. 10K units 2026, explosive grow to next year. Aims/expected to be #1 globally. Anyone remember which Foxconn subsidiary handles their advanced optical work? cough.. cough.. Shunsin (6451). Lot of these exponentially scaling volume shipments won’t show up in balance sheet yet, but will likely soon H2. This is called frontrunning the next supercycle.

When I first joined it was primarily folks trying to sell expensive community paywalls or TAs. Everyone crowded around the same large stock $PYPL or $UNH investing if they had public thesis. Or hype names like $HIMS. Large part of my popularity was focusing on critical chokepoints, which was my own investing style. Having them validated in markets like $AXTI that went up a few thousand percent. Then not gatekeeping any information. I’ve been getting a lot of copycats that are rising in popularity, but I actually encourage it if they bring their own opinions. As this helps democratize alpha and ideas. I think the recent popularity is just from starting a completely new trend.

> markets went from doubting $SIVE customers ($150m MC) Turns out it’s likely companies eg. $JBL, Ayar, $AAPL, Defense Primes, $MRVL celestial. > to doubting their execution ($600m mc) Turns out you skip the capex if you go with Win Semi > to doubting what share they get vs competitors like $LITE ($1.2B mc) Turns out it’s likely sole source for companies like $JBL and primary suppliers for Ayar. > to doubting their revenue opportunities ($2B MC) Turns out they got 77% pipeline growth in just a few months > to doubting their partners like Win Semi’s ability to scale (we are here) Anyone who thinks Win Semi… one of the worlds most important foundries for $AVGO, $LITE, SpaceX supply chains… can’t scale capability by 2028 is a stupid bear. We’re at the point where US retail investors acquired the float off Swedish investors. But I’m expecting US institutions to find a way to shake out US retail like they did with $NBIS or $RKLB before the next supercycle.

I still find it funny how all the software bros are happy about a 10-15% recovery with $CRM to $FIG. After getting wiped 25-60% of their portfolio. Meanwhile all the AI names from $SNDK to $AAOI are casually up 200-1000%.

- $AAOI at $12B - $SIVE at $2B - Foci at $2.8B - Shunsin at $2B Usually the best risk/reward to me currently. Lot of my answers before like $AXTI already 10x’d, so different lineup this time. $AAOI due to absurd H1 2027 revenue projections from capacity ramp, doing everything from laser fab to assembly in America. $471M/month… that’s in 2027, the TAM increases exponentially in 2028. $SIVE is also ramping absurdly high, 77% revenue pipeline growth of the entire company’s history to ~$799M Primarily from photonics… in a single quarter. And they’re projecting 60% gross margins off that. Foci - $NVDA / $TSM primarily FAU supplier and bottleneck for COUPE. Genuinely not sure how this is $2.8B. BOM share for their passive components + FAU are massive in 2028. Just a bit early H1 2026. Shunsin - Legit you see Foxconn get CPO/photonics related orders over and over for $NVDA and others. Just nobody knows the packaging/testing gets done by Shunsin. A lot of contracts are also under Shunsin’s subsidiary too.. so markets/algorithms don’t know what’s coming imo. Runner up is $XFAB, they’ll probably be central to EU CHIPS act 2 for silicon photonics at ~$1.5B MC. And of course SiC/GaN foundries should go brr with 800vdc push by Nvidia. Especially if they’re the only high volume one in United States per Dpt. Of Commerce. And it’s such a low price/book ratio so you’re kinda getting the company upside for free, while US Gov/EU Gov subsidize their capex.

To be fair Trump did tell everyone to buy $DELL, multiple times this year. He did go out and buy $1-$5M worth of Dell stock himself after all… But should have seen this coming with Dell blowout earnings. After what happened with $INTC. If you feel like you’re late, there’s a lot of implications to Dell’s upstream suppliers that markets might not have priced in yet.

$HPS.A is close is to a 2M timeframe. Transformers in the Sky are up 83.3% since. Bumblebee go brrr? But in all reality, transformers demand visibility is very high, solid backlog, high market share (of dry). Not exactly parabolic, but looks like a compelling compounder. https://t.co/bNGwjqfZ4M https://t.co/NkOSKHXXDo

Holy crap… My $EWY 2028 leaps are now up 428%+. So 5.2x ROI trade, in 3 months. Thats what happens when IV increases and underlying memory assets in SK Hynix / Samsung also appreciate. https://t.co/XdE21DOyoz https://t.co/bOADobOLLx

@duedilligently I haven’t seen anyone credible doubt Win Semi’s ability to scale capacity. They’re extremely dominant, and are a critical part of current supply chains from SpaceX to $AVGO.

$SIVE is the most compelling CPO/photonics exposure to me. Addressing the disinformation: I haven’t sold and don’t plan to sell a single share. I do think this ends up the next $80B+ $LITE one day from ~$2.1B. And I personally have plans to acquire more ownership + support their M&A prospects. I believe earnings transcripts will be strongly positive. As in the part few months we’ve discovered: > AlChip/Amazon private placements, which is positive for Ayar -> $SIVE implying Trainium 4 design in > Wiwynn + Ayar CPO scale up > $JBL 1.6T optical transceiver ramp with Sivers incoming faster than markets expected (with relatively dramatic moat + demand as much as they can produce) > O-Net scaling up ELS efforts with $SIVE > $YSS acquisition of $SIVE allspace lead partner, designing Sivers into Space defense primes > New CHIPS ACT funding for $SIVE > $POET H2 volume ramp and their new $50m -> $500m order (with $SIVE as light source) > information discovery around $AAPL using $SIVE lasers for next gen consumer devices > information discovery around links to Lightelligence (went public $10B+ MC) + Lightmatter as likely customers. > Celestial volume ramp with $MRVL indicators. > new customers working on TFLN with $SIVE like Lightium > $AMD going with $GFS for CPO, and GFS listing sivers as one of two laser suppliers > Ayar removing $MTSI / $LITE from their website and signaling $SIVE as primary source/sole source > Ayar raising $500m for volume ramp (intel, Mediatek, Nvidia, amd etc) > pluggable TAM expansion signaled from 2025 annual report > Nasdaq listing expected soon > MSCI small cap index / Nasdaq omx inclusion, making Blackrock, Vanguard and others passive buyers > M&A signaled from 2025 annual report + 2 new board members that have experience in that area > $NOK as likely customer from 2025 annual report. > $LITE getting cw bottlenecked from EML contracts, $SIVE signaling capacity agreements in place with Win, making the a likely bottleneck owner + chokepoint in CPO sector. All of this market research was done before earnings. Any results is just confirmation of supply chain mapping done. I don’t think anyone cares about former quarter revenue since $SIVE is an exceptionally compelling 2027 long, especially H2 onward. Only thing I’m looking at are: > TAM expansion of the overall photonics supercycle (eg. optical engine, ELS, pluggables) either from M&A or developments > volume ramp expectations from existing companies > Nasdaq listing timelines for more liquidity to support their M&A efforts > any new customers signaled for CPO/Pluggables

@cchronobreakk I have something planned for $HOOD retail users and international equities like $SIVE, don’t worry.

Just in case people are wondering about my track record with European equities: $RPI: $280 -> $800 (agentic AI hardware demand thesis). $LPK: ~$6, thesis at $13 -> $24.2 (glass cores substrates close monopoly) $SOI: $44 -> $181 (silicon photonics, monopoly over substrates) $SIVE: $4 -> $71 (CPO, critical chokepoints over lasers). $IQE: $12 -> $47 (latent epiwafer capacity, information discovery around downstream photonics companies). $ALRIB: $5 -> $15 (duopoly, synthesis around quantum buyers with photonics growth verticals). And now $XFAB at $9. I’m not always right. But every single one of my European longs thesis have been validated so far by either earnings, investments (eg. $MTSI in IQE) or market returns.

I mean all my European longs from $SOI, $IQE, $RPI, $SIVE, $ALRIB followed this trend if we just look at chart. Long term they’ve all ended up directionally right, and now they’re all up hundreds of percent. I don’t control or trade volatility with $XFAB, but interested in being a part of their long term growth vectors with power semis/photonics.