Serenity @aleabitoreddit

The more I look at ESMT, the more excited I get researching legacy memory themes. So looked through H1 sellside models... From March ESMT reports: Huanan: DDR3 4Gb ASP +50% QoQ in Q2 Fubon: cited roughly +40% Q2 DRAM pricing By August... Huanan was citing ESMT Q2 ASP growth of: +105–113% Q/Q blended. Saying DDR3 pricing had come in substantially better than expected. So legacy memory pricing translated into much more operating leverage at ESMT. About PSMC wafer cost hikes: Huanan estimated manufacturing costs could rise ~100% in 2H26, but customers remained highly willing to accept the pass-through If we look at July net income was roughly $109M... way above the earnings levels the earlier models were built around. If I had to give a TLDR "consensus" of reports 1. DDR3/DDR2 supply remains structurally tight as competitors move capacity toward higher-value memory. 2. Concord saw no conditions supporting a price reversal during 2026. 3. Concord expected contract-price increases to cover higher foundry costs. 4. Huanan later found that customer willingness to accept those cost increases was stronger than expected. Fun thing I read from Huanan was DDR3 is used in products such as IP cameras and HDDs where the memory component is a relatively small part of the customer's total BOM. So even very large legacy DRAM price hike may only add a few dollars to the finished product's BOM... and for many customers, paying a few extra dollars would be more economical than redesigning + requalifying (but this flows materially into ESMT's net income) Anyway, just excited about this idea (*disclosure I have positions) TLDR: -> Huanan updated ESMT blended Q2 ASP to +105-113% Q/Q -> Given July's blowout net income (putting ESMT at 1.9x p/e annualized RR), implications for the future are exciting if inelasticity continues + ESMT has the ability to hike further due to low % of finished product BOM cost. -> Indication customers were still willing to accept pass through for PSMC wafer hikes.

Just some random ideas from Elon’s post: $AAON - Chillers / liquid cooling $NVT - Cooling $MOD - Chillers / Cooling $IESC - Wiring $MTRS - chillers $JCI - chillers $HPS.A - Transformers (disclosure I own positions in this) $PRY.MI - networking/wiring(fiber) $CRDO / $AAOI (same) / $LITE / $COHR - networking Since Elon Musk cited: - transformers - wiring - liquid cooling - massive chillers + complex networking As the point of failure for AI compute buildout. Which is “harder than finding power”

So far, what I've seen is market volatility stemming from communication failures and noise. Thesis break would be 1. issues with their foundry allocations, since that would affect supply. (But they have 2 now). 2. Or failing qualifications. (they signaled $JBL orders for H1, but we'll see). Fundamentally I think $SIVE is in an amazing spot during a CW laser bottleneck. I also see more potential for Sivers to become a larger optical giant rather than remain just a chokepoint supplier... which is why I focus on company direction a lot more.

Just my final recap on thoughts + fundamentals of $SIVE from ER: Pluggables (1.6T Ramp) for 2027: - $JBL (1.6T LRO, confirmed) Orders H1 2027, Ramp H2 2027 -> -> Likely multiple hyperscaler customers - 3 pluggable makers (evaluation) - 3 pluggable makers (supply assessment) Reference Design for likely H2 2027–28+: - $GFS (Globalfoundries) SCALE (confirmed)) -> -> Likely $AMD and other hyperscalers as CPO customers External Light Sources / Optical Engines for 2027: - $POET (confirmed) -> -> Lumilens / hyperscaler end users - O-Net (confirmed) -> -> Massive ODM/OEM for Hyperscalers + Asia - Likely $AEVA (mapping) -> -> supplying to OE -> hyperscalers / lidar - SemiNex (confirmed) Optical I/O for 2028: - Ayar Labs (confirmed) -> -> Likely $AMD, ALchip, and hyperscaler ASIC program end users + $NVDA NVLink - $MRVL Celestial (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures) - Lightmatter (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures) - Lightelligence (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures) Then potentially $AAPL for 2028 for next-generation wearable updates and other programs from TFLN with Lightium. In terms of capacity allocations: - Win Semi - 1 other foundry (with tremendous allocations) during an InP CW DFB laser shortage. These are all on-going developments/qualifications since Sivers is targeting next-generation SiPH + CW with 1.6T and CPO for 2027-2028. Especially as Goldman Sachs models the CPO opportunity going from effectively near-zero today to ~$91B TAM by 2028. However my criticisms were: => Main focus was not on communicating economic scale of 2027-2028 optical ramps to Western audiences. => Legal vagueposts around NASDAQ listing should be dropped, and clear direction should be set + executed faster on. =>Too much focus was put on defending smaller current revenue/TTM revenue/pipeline conversion (allspace, Tachyon.) relative to future qualifications/partner size/capacity/potential. $SIVE needs to position themselves as a forward looking, global hypergrowth optical company supplying lasers to hyperscaler programs. And not let the narrative get dominated by backward looking metrics. And as Morgan Stanley put it... "Key [CPO] participants include … $LITE, $COHR, and Sivers laser supply". I'm personally a happy $SIVE shareholder for high-beta exposure to the next 2027-2028 optical shift with 1.6T/CPO.

$AXTI would need to hike ASPs of InP substrates to extreme levels you see in memory to see further rerating eg. $20-30B valuations. I think the bottleneck is proven, their chokepoint is proven. However, I don't know what the contracts or LTAs with $LITE and $COHR entail. We'll find out over time (disclosure* own AXT shares).

If I had to be critical of $SIVE earnings: 1. Management underweighted the two disclosures that matter most. -> 6 pluggable engagements -> Foundry capacity (during an industry bottleneck) That's the most important part of the call and should have been the focus to provide economic scale of them. But we got 2-3 sentences about it. And it shouldn't take an Anime avatar on X to talk most about the implications of those. 2. CFO needs retraining or bring on a new one. The lawyer like answers were infuriating to listen to as a shareholder. Even I got pissed off with this statement: "we will evaluate the timing and decide whether the conditions are right to move forward at that particular time." It should be a 100% given by now they file for dual listing to escape hostile Swedish markets. Shareholders didn't fund a future growth type company to hear lawyer-like answers. Again, this was probably one of the worst answers the CFO could have gave and there needs to be firm commitment along with faster timelines. 3. $70M should have gone toward M&A and dual listing. -> Brutally honestly speaking, it's a waste of capital to focus on hybrid manufacturing at this stage and I was disappointed to hear this during this timeframe. It's eventually needed but with 2 foundry suppliers -> You have a ton of new capital and large marketcap. Use it to pull $AVGO style acquisitions of Cloud Light style IP for pluggables or optical engines. Lumilens went from 0 -> $5.5B in 2 years and now with hyperscaler engagements. Sivers should expand out of the laser chokepoint as fast as possible and not stay just a component vendor. And most of all, who cares about competing with customers? If a customer says: "if you do pluggables, we'll go with other players for lasers" who?? $LITE / $COHR / $AAOI reroutes their lasers to internal usage. Lot of your Asian players already allocated. Abuse the current bottleneck as much as possible because there's almost no qualified choices left. And I'm certain all the partners are trying to vertically integrate upward toward the laser level too and compete. If there was a new OE/pluggable accusation attempted during the Q2 time frame, things would have been a lot different. _ TLDR: $SIVE should aim to be the next $LITE and blitzscale like a Silicon Valley company. Use that $70m capital to move faster H2, and at the bare minimum finish readiness then. And expect NASDAQ listing to be finished H1 2027. Not "evaluation" at that timeframe. And use the capital + equity to expand downward into optical engines/ELS/optical transceivers using your equity valuation, and buy a Celestial/Ayar/Cloud Lite type startup. As for the wording of the call, markets care about economic value of the foundry allocation + 6 pluggable players, not other business segments. $SIVE has been extremely conservative to date, but they need to speed up and communicate to forward looking US/Int shareholders. Not geared toward local Swedish audiences who care about Q2/TTM revenue. Otherwise they'll be treated like an Asian component supplier and eventually be valued like an EU one.

I've always been bullish on memory with $MU / Samsung / $SKHY for the 2026-2027 period. Same opinion, even after $NVDA call. And I've been fervently defending how high end memory demand is structural + OP for operating income (especially during Iran tensions around LNG/Helium). Nvidia earnings just reaffirms what we know about extreme demand since commitments went from $119B -> $279B largely driven by memory procurement. Nvidia's CFO also said: "We are experiencing extreme pricing conditions in memory." As for what I've done, H1 2026 I was extremely overweight in memory: With $MU, $SNDK, Phison, $SIMO, Nanya, Macronix, Winbond, and $EWY / SK Hynix (HBM/DRAM + NAND + legacy DRAM/NAND + controllers + NOR Flash). I trimmed down those positions aside from Samsung/SK Hynix longs, since I do believe many have been rerated (eg. Micron $300 -> $1000+ already). I think the largest price discovery period has played out, but just a waiting game for the operating income to catch up (esp u samsung) And I used that period to go overweight on photonics. But I do believe we're seeing a relatively newer cascade down into the "legacy legacy" memory like DDR2/DDR3 with the "legacy" players like Winbond leaving some of those segments. Where the price hikes finally hit the 40-60% Q/Q mark, which reminds me of the extreme $SNDK days, across DDR2/DDR3. Which is why I started up positions in ESMT (1.9x P/E from July annualized) and Etron. Maybe we'll see a price discovery moment further down the legacy memory stack (could be wrong), but that's the area I've focused on recently.

I wanted exposure to DDR2/DDR3 bottleneck ongoing and found ESMT (3006). A $2.5B MC fabless company with PSMC wafer allocation (esp. focused on DDR2). Last month's net income was: $109.5M (July month), which annualized is $1.31B net profit (1.9x runrate P/E). If we look at net profit throughout the months tracking legacy DRAM price hikes: Jan 2026: ~$16M (est) Feb 2026: ~$17M Mar 2026: ~$31M (est) April 2026: ~$58M May 2026: ~$60M (est) June 2026: ~$67M (est) Jul 2026: ~$110M (Estimated months are inferred from reported quarterly totals. July is company reported) This earnings progression reminds me of $SNDK style price hikes + earnings inflection (esp. the report released this month). And I do expect DDR2/DDR3 capacity to remain constrained throughout 2027 (with legacy players like Winbond withdrawing from certain lines too like DDR2). It's not quite all inventory liquidation like the other peers. Sure lower cost inventory helped, but the primary driver seems to be the widening spread between wafer costs/supply and legacy dram ASPs? Their balance sheet is extremely solid as well: - Cash on hand: ~$395.9M net cash - $249.6M inventory, $146.3M receivables And the net income progression... is before further legacy DRAM hikes expected in Q3. *disclosure own positions, NFA It's always a bit daunting being early without much commentary around the idea. Wondering if anyone can stress test this thesis? Since a company that grew monthly net income from $16M -> $100m this year alone (July Annualized would be 1.9x P/E). And benefits from another projected wave of DDR2/DDR3 hikes this quarter... maybe like 35-40% for DDR2 lines per Trendforce, and DDR3 likely continuing to rise. Do markets just not know about this bottleneck/company or am I missing something from my research?

Lot of misinterpretations flying left and right around the $600m ATM. I'm still bullish on $AAOI and I have large positions (which is why I care more). What I've been consistent with is not being a fan of overusing ATMs/dilution for financing. I've said this before with $IREN + $POET. And I'll be consistent with my own positions like AOI. However, the reason I'm still overweight on AOI vs. the rest (looking at you Poet): Is that AOI is actually capacity constrained with high demand visibility. In terms of timing: - AOI should have waited until completion of 1.6T qualifications (expected in the next few weeks) - Could have used other structures like convertible notes above market prices. But they did it on the drop from $220 -> $130, and it's likely there will be short term structural overhang whenever they want to tap into it. I don't have to support every single business decision to remain long.

@OscarCantInvest I still have $AAOI positions but I can dislike financing methods/timing/amounts.

@EnamelEquity Nope, all my thematic baskets were picked earlier this year with memory like $EWY and CPO like $SIVE. Only recent was kinda humanoids with $CCXI, but that's one-off. I'm just waiting for everything to play out, not a fan of jumping ship to ship.

Yeah, $SIVE is my favorite high-beta optical long. You have a small company supplying lasers for: - Hyperscaler suppliers like $JBL with pluggables. - ELS + optical engines with $POET / O-Net. - Scale up with optical I/O with Ayar and others. - Photonic Foundries like $GFS across all architectures like NPO/pluggables/CPO. with independent CW capacity coming online with Win Semi during a structural bottleneck... NASDAQ listing likely in the next few quarters. And the CEO actually knows what he's doing + aligned with shareholders (in terms of buying stock on the open market), with low dilution to get all of this done. And they hinted at M&A, which is ideal for TAM expansion (look at what happened with Lumentum after Cloud Light H2 2023 M&A). Then you have $MTSI, $AAOI likely no meaningful participating in first-gen CPO deployments (smaller pool of players)... Industry CW shortages currently before volume ramp. Regulation tailwinds targeting Chinese competition. I'm not sure if it's just me but they have the ideal setup, main downside is that it's just listed on some small Swedish exchange and that harms valuations.

I still have positions in both companies? What I hold shouldn't affect your own decisions. Transformer bottlenecks are stalling the US AI buildout now and lead times are very long for both dry and liquid (which is more extreme). Backlog is +96.9% Y/Y for $HPS.A and given their market share... I don't they're going anywhere. Pretty sure I shared this idea at ~170, it did 2x, but corrected back to 240 now, but cost average is different per person I guess. The Belgian company is primarily H1 2028 as a CPO/photonics volume ramp beneficary. And the work they're doing with MTP with IMEC for $NVDA as an end user in evaluation stage should be very interesting. Their CHIP act facility for MEMS/photonics also comes online H2 2028 too, and 800V transitions should bring them material revenue growth for anything SiC adjacent next year. I'm down -31%, since my cost average is a lot higher. But they're approaching levels where replacement book value is a lot higher than MC.

@abbysuyuyan $AAOI is actually the one stock I'm hoping goes back to $80 so I can acquire more. The demand visibility is pretty insane for laser names throughout 2027... Same can be said with neoclouds like $NBIS or memory names like $SNDK.

@tRbW6qAUT717891 I can't buy A-Shares, so I'm sticking with US markets. Agility via $CCXI( $NVDA, $AMZN, Softbank backed) is my personal exposure to humanoids. But I'm cheering on everyone who won the lottery for Unitree shares.

Uhh I mainly just increased MLCC positions rather than NAND exposure personally. Since MLCC prices/tightening resembles the early NAND hike cycle… if your passive component players want to tag along $SNDK path. Just saying it shows resemblance, but I’m not sure we’ll get something as extreme. Will need to wait a quarter or two.

Walsin (2494) is top 4 in the world in terms of overall MLCC marketshare (I actually added some recently to track how this guess plays out), with apparently less AI server related compared to Yaiyo Yuden. ~$4.5B MC relative to Yageo, so relatively higher exposure if MLCC supply imbalance broadens. There's primary Walsin document they state "10% global MLCC share" / "4th or 5th globally"

I think we're seeing AI server MLCC demand cause an interesting effect... with tightening capacity for consumer/general-purpose MLCCs. If you get Vietnam flashbacks like I do to $MU / Samsung / SK Hynix -> Legacy DRAM: My thesis is we'll see the same thing here maybe late H2, early 2027 with consumer/broad MLCCs. From July 6th: "the crowding-out effect from AI-oriented high-end MLCC production has begun spilling over into both the automotive and consumer markets." July 28th: "AI Demand Pushes Japanese and Korean MLCC Suppliers to Record Monthly Shipments; Consumer-Grade Order Spillovers Continue to Surge" Aug 12: As [MLCC] capacity shifts from consumer grades to AI-oriented products... (Trendforce) Aug 12: China's electronics market channel checks found 22µF and 47µF MLCCs (used more broadly) out of stock. Then found and said certain manufacturers had stopped taking orders. (for reference: Walsin said high-volume smartphone/PC products such as... 22µF, so it's broader MLCCs) Obviously Samsung Electro-Mechanics/Murata are main beneficiaries of AI server MLCC ramp. But companies with large market share of overall MLCCs like Taiyo Yuden (6976, disclosure: I have positions) with less AI server share, would be a major beneficiary of this. Fun part is, we're only in H2 2026, so the next major bottleneck should be fun!

As for names Jensen / Nvidia directly invested in: - $MRVL (Celestial), $LITE, $COHR for photonics... - $CCXI (Agility) for humanoids. I tend to do more complex investing, for my own thought process: -> I know CPO theme is coming next -> Nvidia secures all CW laser capacity. -> Maybe, $AAOI, $MTSI, $AVGO, $SIVE, $SMTC are remaining CW western players. -> $SIVE probably the highest-beta exposure. SO that was my personal long. Can probably do something similar for the other themes.

@_stockResearch I also like really like $CCXI. I bought somewhere between .25-.75% of the company's float around the time it got announced. I think the Unitree IPO and other Chinese IPOs should give it a boost, since Agility has been a relative laggard to their expected open prices...

Just some TLDRs of stuff I found interesting: - $SNDK 80% adjusted gross margins projections through 2030, ~75% operating margins and ~50% adjusted FCF margins from investor day. LTAs already 2/3rd of 2028 output. Minimum contracted revenue reaches $93B (MC is currently ~$239B)... Hard to be a cyclical stock when your revenue/targets are expected to continue 4Y later into 2030. - $CRWV signs contracts for 6Y old $NVDA A100 GPUs through 2029. For Neoclouds like Nebius/Iren, this is positive, since it's a counterargument for eg. Burry depreciation short thesis - conventional DRAM gross margins eg. Micron is estimated to reach an unprecedented 95% by 2027, surpassing HBM GMs per UBS read through for legacy/standard dram players like Nanya/Winbond should go brrrr if projections are correct. - Anthropic reportedly achieved 14x+ YoY growth and roughly 2.4x sequential revenue growth q2 to >$11.5B,. estimating growth to $190–200B in 2028r evenue numbers. Your frontier labs keep growing at stupidly fast paces, it would be worrisome if they didnt. - $NVDA reportedly in talks to invest $3B in SB Energy (Softbank subsidiary), creates a >$500B compute financing push with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman, and others. $NVDA Feynman reportedly moves to TSMC A16 + SoIC + custom HBM + CPO in H2 2028 Just more nvidia news every day - $MSFT Maia 300 discussed $TSM capacity for >300k units in 2027, with expansion to 1m+. Unveils as soon as September. Likely $MRVL should be more happy from this news. For what's happening right now: - maybe GUC for Microsoft current ASIC ramp. - For the Amazon party, stuff like Alchip (I do own shares), likely is ramping now with $AMZN ASIC program H2 2026... So might be a good idea to look at hyperscaler ASIC ramp timelines + their beneficiaries. - $TSM VP of Advanced Packaging stated "the industry is likely to face not only memory shortages but also tight ABF substrate supply over the next few years"... Emphasis on few years for memory + ABF substrates for bottlenecks. Even upstream abf substrate equipment providers are happy, eg. Eternal Precision which uses vacuum lamination equipment stated orders surged, their plants have been running at full capacity, and 20%+ price hikes. - $AMAT expects advanced packaging revenue to grow >70% in 2026, versus prior >50%, and said customer discussions now extend all the way to 2030 (not too familiar with this company, but found their growth rate from 2025 Q4 $6.8B ->$7.01B -> 7.91B -> $9.12B -> $10.25B Q4 2026 projections pretty interesting) - Google said at OCP APAC said conventional 48V is running out of headroom. $NVDA detailed an 800VDC MGX-compatible rack H2 2026 (timeline, Delta / Lite-On beneficaries) - Aside from $SNDK, Nanya LTAs cover 50% of capacity. CXMT signed multi-year DRAM agreements last month, so entire memory industry seems to be following same playbook as ur big 3. - Probe cards remain a bottleneck, MPI(6223) said their probe card capacity remains fully utilized because demand exceeds supply. Already covered the CW laser bottleneck with $AAOI, $SIVE, and $LITE earlier this week, but that's another fun one. - some MLCC/component lead times have hit 36 weeks per Nichidenbo. Your Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Taiyo Yuden, Murata, players should be very happy to hear this. TLDR: AI supply chains go brrr.

Some fun statistics: - Round 69.2% is unrealized. ~2% of the unrealized options, 98% just pure shares. - Drawndown from peak was ~77.8%, not really any risk if liqudiation at the lows, but recovery was a lot slower - $EWY longs were up about 450% at the peak, those made up the largest portion of my earlier realized gains, but I still have a sizeable position in that.

My memory bags are decently heavy, thank you for asking. Just out of curiosity, you think 16+ long term agreements with $MU. And $SNDK 80% gross margin projections through fiscal 2030 is a cyclical commodity? (their LTAs already cover majority of 2028 output). This is quite a long cycle if you ask me...

@Highonstocks_ Yeah I personally bought $SMCI on earnings day after I saw the guidance. At a certain point, hairdryers should only weigh down a stock so much right?

Okay here's my take on $POET, since apparently people are celebrating on the subreddit that I took small positions. - I have 0 idea. ZERO. How they convinced shareholders to allow them dilute SO MUCH to the point: They have an absurd ~$830m cash on hand now. And my guess is that they're close to done, since I would be in disbelief if they needed more. So now... they have ~$830m to grow their business like M&A, and EV actually dropped really low recently (eg. $1.25B MC vs. $830m cash on hand), that I thought it was compelling to take a risk. - Annualized production capacity target is 12M optical engines/year for 2027, which is pretty absurd ramp. Need to do more research into ASP for Poet's products, but maybe $125-$200? So at ~$150 ASP, $1.8B revenue ceiling. But they're like inverse AAOI right now: no visible demand to fill all that capacity. Aside from Lumilens, which is now a highly valued hyperscaler supplier (probably Amazon or Microsoft), with billions in customer agreements. The interesting thing is if Poet signed prepayment EML agreements with players like Mitsubishi, or CW agreements with Sivers behind the scenes with that balance sheet. And given the current bottleneck, players might use Poet as a workaround for supply procurement. But basically, you have a super cash-rich company with a ton of capacity coming online. And they're not really disappearing anytime soon with their financials. I don't quite think it's as technically defensible compared to upstream laser chokepoints with something like $SIVE around the same valuation in terms of technical moat for CW lasers vs. OE packaging side. As you've seen recently with Celestial and Poet. But maybe... there's a chance some hyperscaler or downstream company announces a volume agreement sometime in the future. and $POET takes off. And they do have the supply chain setup for ramp with that. That's the risk I ended up taking, but it's not exactly a clear as day long for me like $AAOI.