Serenity @aleabitoreddit

Where did I ever say that? Majority of my portfolio is concentrated in photonics with names like $SIVE and $AAOI. However, I’m allowed to talk about other exciting developments as well… Such as the first listed US humanoid player? I still think CPO/optics has the fastest TAM ramp out of any industry, just a bit early since I’m projecting revenue inflection really hits ~H2 2027. I’m personally down a lot past few weeks, but I’m convinced my thesis with laser chokepoints and others plays out.

Just dropping these 3 slides from Agility Robotics ( $CCXI ) presentations. For the US robotic program doomposters: 1. “75% of parts” - sourced from the USA 2. Just eyeballing the graph, looks like <$30k BOM mass production. People were just looking at the ~$145K cost. 3. 10,000 RoboFab capacity, and they build in Salem/Pittsburgh/Fremont (USA). So looks like majority US supply chains with targets of <$30K mass production It does help they’re backed by $AMZN / SoftBank / Foxconn / $NVDA as investors to get this done. Just personal thoughts as a shareholder in $CCXI (NFA): My personal biggest fear were US humanoid leaders like $TSLA were just building out their entire supply chains in China. So US robotics could just be export controlled/halted down the road. eg. South China Morning Post: ‘Optimus chain’: Chinese suppliers form the backbone of Tesla’s humanoid robot initiative and engaged with hundreds of Chinese component suppliers. And that Western companies are not able to lower costs to a competitive level + are forced to use Chinese components. I'm still not sure how they're going to do it but if Agility can achieve those mass production targets with that BOM cost in the USA/West. It would be a great validation for Made in America US robotics programs. IMO the top 5 US humanoid programs right now in terms of commercialization potential are: 1. Tesla Optimus 2. Figure 3. Agility Robotics 4. Boston Dynamics (yeah KR parent) 5. Apptronik Tesla is a $1T+ company. Figure is private and valued around ~$39B. Owning Boston Dynamics through Hyundai is a bit messy. And I’d prefer not to invest in adversarial programs just as a personal preference. So I’ve been personally excited for Agility to be listed as early as September.

@alGix0 I’m not concerned with short term volatility, which is expected with high-beta photonics and current macro. I’m long on $SIVE to see my thesis play out with laser volume ramp. Dilution could be a short term factor, but I see the development as positive long term

Yep! Agility Robotics is currently my favorite humanoid/robotics position. They're set to be listed on NASDAQ via $CCXI as early as September (per Digitimes). Just for informational purposes: Their V4 humanoid robot is already operating in sites like Amazon. And have V5 slated for mass production next year (they have a 10,000+ /year capacity). Investors include Foxconn, $NVDA, $AMZN, Softbank, and now Serenity. I've been personally waiting for humanoid exposure for awhile (Agility is set to be the first US pure-play listed one) to the point I was actually planning on investing in Unitree's IPO. But I'm glad now I personally have a compelling alternative now since I prefer to invest capital to build up Made in America supply chains (75% of their components are US-sourced from investor desks). There are risks assigned to SPACs such as listing delays, or cancellation. But excited to see what happens next with developments. I do hope this encourages other frontier companies to go public early on.

@gurukid5995 Markets tend to rotate from bottleneck to bottleneck. Memory from $SNDK to $MU was the market's main focus this month, while optical names like $AAOI corrected. I think we'll see a rotation back into photonics eventually, it's personally my highest concentration theme.

For robotics companies, I have a favorable view on Unitree and Agility Robotics, two humanoid players. And I have largest concentration in Agility Robotics, since I personally prefer US humanoid players. For upstream component exposure, I currently own: - Harmonic Drive (6324) given high content BOM on things like harmonic reduction gear. - Vishay Precision for sensors and a possible candidate for Telsa Optimus. LeaderDrive (688017) and Schaeffler I have favorable views on but don't own personally. Many of the other AI DC players, I have indirect exposure to robotics like memory. Don't recommend anyone to copy, just sharing personal positions/thoughts. Humanoid sector is large, and as seen with Goldman Sachs report that "Korean companies will command a 30% direct and indirect share of global humanoid robot production". Lot of players out there globally. This was an older report but just linking it again since you see all of them pop up in GS institutional reports + what they cover. Agility Robotics is my personal favorite as of now.

pls don’t blindly follow along, esp. since I actively manage my own positions! $CBRS is just a cautionary position for me right now. Cause things evolve every month in the AI space (eg. Custom jalapeño chips, maybe OpenAI has troubles, rate hikes), etc. But if it’s compelling to you, you do you.

Kinda nutty OpenAI’s is launching its heavyweight 5.6 Sol frontier model on $CBRS. At up to 750 tokens/sec, which is obscene performance. American inference go brrr. I actually picked up starter positions on Cerebras for the first time in the ~170s (below $185 IPO price) after seeing this news yesterday. Feels like validation of its tech. IMO a bit overvalued compared to profitable companies like $JBL at the same valuation. But there’s likely premiums for OpenAI exposure, as long as they stay the leader.

You've been supporting me from the very start, thank you so much! I still remember your first translation post helped me get popular. Before I was just able to wait for my thesis to play out like $NBIS even in the drops, since I didn't have so many followers. Now everyone's monitoring day-to-day price volatility and commenting about it so it's harder to ignore.

OFC I'm aware. But I'm personally sleeping comfortably since I have conviction in my hyperscaler mapping research with $SIVE. And yes, I still have my million+ share position. Not sure if people realize this: but I'm only here to share my thoughts/ideas. I don't control market volatility, what decisions you all make, or how markets react to new information synthesis. It's much safer for analysts to just reactively tag along Morgan Stanley/JP Morgan/Goldman Sachs research whenever it's created and just summarize. Rather than coming up with new ideas from OSINT mapping and waiting them get validated. Because when you discover a new angle: Everyone keeps heatedly debating topics of 4-6 inch InP fabs, employee count, who their hyperscaler customers are, volume ramp timelines, etc to try and play devils advocate with a thesis. Then actively monitoring every single 5-20% price movement. I'm forced to stay on this topic more since it's less validated + there's always heated discussions. Just like $EWY in Feb, which I did memory projections on + Helium/LNG/Oil analysis. But months later everyone sees memory looks structural with Micron's 16+ LTAs and LNG isn't taking down SK Hynix margins. Or $NBIS from last year in terms of sum-of-parts / dilution structures vs $IREN. And now it's close to ATHs and listed on $QQQ. I'm personally just waiting Sivers to volume ramp in 2027 + listing on NASDAQ to support their M&A efforts. So they can walk down the same path as $LITE when they scaled from $3B to $60B+.

FYI, I posted ideas about $AXTI at $15, $AAOI at $30, $TSEM at $115, $LITE $300, $MU $300, $SNDK $400, $EWY $110, $SIVE $4. $IQE $13, $SOI $44 and so on. So when they finally have a massive correction due to macro drop the ideas are wrong? And most are still up a few hundred percent. TW CPO names are just really early and I’m down a lot on those but I expect them to recover in due time.

Think so. But in the meantime, I call my strategy: Diversified Losses. With $AXTI, $SOI, $AAOI, and many others. Had a massive drawdown recently, CPO exposure was hit the hardest (Foci, Msscorp, etc) and adjacent names, feels bad. Probably lesson personally, I had too much concentration in photonics vs. memory/other sectors without weighting/hedging properly. With Soitec, there's been a few negative institutional reports that I'd disagree with. Think AXT was hit harder in specific just because of float expansion/dilution concerns. AAOI, probably just brought down with the theme. I can't give advice on buying, so completely up to you to make for cost averaging or entering positions. But I do think we're still early in the Supercycle with photonics, there's bound to be corrections/crashes along the way up. If my personal thesis is correct though, many of these names will have a major inflection point in midway through 2027 scaling up to 2028. Markets don't typically wait to price things in advance, but some ideas might be a tad early or in the buildout given it's H2 2026 now. Which is why it's important to build your own conviction.

Fun new information discovery from Poet OSINT community: Seems likely that $POET / $SIVE are going to power a Top-3 hyperscaler (either Amazon, Microsoft, Google). Given a Linkedin update from Ankur Singla (CEO of Lumilens). Who stated their customer is one of the top 3 hyperscalers with their post focusing on CPO/NPO. With that clue, seems more likely the Sivers CW DFB light source path over other EML suppliers given it's CPO Scale Out/NPO. If you don't remember, Sivers is the laser supplier to Poet. And Poet has purchase agreements with Lumilens. Always fun to find major potential breadcrumbs in the wild before they're officially confirmed. (Disclosure, long Sive)

@SMike1271547 I actually just added on $AAOI. Was talking about in general since everything dropped across the board, not specific names MB.

Dip looks like a clear buying opportunity for me personally from $MU, $INTC, to $TSM. Since we got a massive drop off BS narratives like 3 rate hikes off no newly material macroeconomic data (which comes out Thursday). If institutions really believed 3 rate hike sellside garbage that BofA put out: They would profit off it with CME/prediction markets. Which are still projecting 74% no rate hike in July. But they don't. So they're feeding retail investors garbage.

IMO photonics theme + CW laser chokepoint is goated. It's legit like markets have short term memory loss and forgot how $LITE went from $3B -> $65B+ from 2024 to now. Because $NVDA caused EML bottlenecks, and forced architectural changes. We're literally seeing the same thing today with CW lasers + 1.6T/CPO shifts with Nvidia signing LTAs everywhere. Now, $AMD + other CSPs are hunting for remaining scraps with large LTAs for CW lasers + optical components. GS Research's ~9-10x $154B optical TAM in 2028 and near $0 -> $91B CPO TAM in just 2 1/2 years. Don't just magically disappear from a month of trading volatility. $AAOI sitting at ~$13B, $SIVE sitting at ~$3B, and other CW laser players look strategically very valuable. And next year I think we'll look back and say "Why didn't I learn my lesson the first time with EML from Nvidia and pick up CW laser adjacent names!" Then there's likely gonna be some new mini trend 1-2 years from now like microled or quantum dot and we're gonna see the same thing repeat. Think Sumitomo's projections with CW laser share + silicon photonics being majority / dominant architecture should be correct. I'm personally just focusing on that bottleneck as you've seen with $SOI, $TSEM, $SIVE, and others.

I actually think OE Solutions ($138080.KQ ) makes the most sense as an acquisition target by a large downstream player. Since it’s now trading at a stupid ~$215M MC for scarce EML/CW laser IP. A Source Photonics / Suzhou Dongshan Precision type acquisition might add a lot more value to another company that wants to vertically integrate. Given there’s a lot of expensive R&D and capex required to scale their fabs and buildout ahead + it’s a small optical player. (Disclosure: I do own positions) Just floating the idea out there to other companies.

As for $LPK: Maybe $3B-$5B seems reasonable when they fully volume ramp if I had to guess. Feels more asymmetrical to me personally since it's just a waiting game and they have the customers for glass substrates. Small machine supplier chokepoints usually cap out from TAM though and don't go to $20B+ unless you're ASML or hold many chokepoints like KLAC. Not many dominant "monopolies" like these out there right before volume ramp this small: Maybe you have stuff like: - Aixtron (MOCVD) ~$8B - Towa (compression bonding) ~$2B - Techwing (memory handler/cube probes) ~$1.5B - MSScorps (CPO inspection), but pre-ramp. $850M - Riber (quantum MBE), very pre-ramp ~$350M Then LPK Laser for glass core substrates (about to ramp) at ~$730M, which thematically should have more premiums than memory. (eg. major advanced packaging shift, CPO adjacent, etc). Lot of obscure chemical monopolies I know of, but those don't get as much attention cause BOM is much lower than equipment. But for lpk you have: eg. “80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment”. 70% of LIDE market share target for TGV in the glass-core ramp, should be very material. (disclosure: own, the listed names above aside from techwing/aixtron, NFI). Just kinda the path they go if you follow $AEHR at ~$3.5B now: - <$500m: "Oh they have no customers!" ---> (probably somewhere in the middle here). - < $1.5B: "Maybe volume comes soon!" - $3B+ onward: "Looks like they're starting to volume ramp. Just a lesson for the cycle of the chokepoint machine suppliers from my personal experiences.

Wow, 3 limit ups in a row with WUS TW. Pretty sad I didn't take larger positions. WUS TW is 1 my 2 NAV arbitrage + independent growth trades. If you want context: WUS TW is a ~$1.12B PCB player with AI DC growth. Their stake in WUS Kunshan is $4.79B (11.4% of 42.04 billion) So basically they're a $1.1B PCB player growing independently, sitting on ~$4.79B worth of another company that looks to IPOed on Hong Kong markets soon. And a successful activist investor in Palliser (with Ajinomoto and Toto), is pressuring them to trim some holdings along with a few others. Seems like a pretty insane disconnect, and I think there's a lot of potential here.

That’s a misconception: $SIVE is the laser supplier for next gen architectures, not just CPO scale up. Pluggable, scale out CPO, scale up CPO, NPO, etc. - Sivers and $JBL went god-mode and developed 1.6T optical transceivers with CW lasers. Effectively designing around the EML bottlenecks, and even made things more power efficient. From quotes from Jabil management they created a “relatively dramatic moat”. So for the next gen of 1.6T pluggable transceivers, Sivers seems immediately used. Markets missed this nuance too: after Jabil’s announcement, other pluggable players reached out, and SIVE is working with them now (prob codevelopment, qualification stage). There’s not too many players that build optical transceivers that aren’t vertically integrated like Lumentum (think: Innolight/eoptolink, and maybe others). So these are active developments, just not public material yet and could be a new press release anytime. - for CPO scale out which happens H2 2026 onward like $POET, $SIVE is a laser supplier for those players. - scale up CPO is h2 2027, from Ayar and Nvidia’a NVLink CPO ecosystem and that’s the main volume ramp across optical players. But this is where $SIVE looks like they mog every other player from supply chain mapping. Since they’ve likely been working + designed in with $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence and the others since they were small way back when. On top of things like this: For foundries like $GFS, $SIVE is the reference laser. Not even including massive companies like O-Net building ELS with $SIVE, likely for the Asian hyperscalers supply chains. This is why $SIVE is by far my favorite laser chokepoint long. Feels like they’re everywhere in new optical architectures starting beginning of 2027.

I've been getting a lot of questions about OE Solutions (138080) recently. Here's my research/thoughts so far on it: They're a small Korean optical transceiver company, similar to $AAOI. And they've become one the few EML players in the world (eg. $COHR, $LITE, Mitsubishi, Source, Sumitomo), with scarce 100G EML laser capacity for 800G/1.6T. OE appears to be trying to make the full transceiver, not just the EML. They also have finished ELSFP CPO products, with UHP CW lasers, which is sampling Q3. Likewise, OE also seems to be building out the full ELSFP, rather than selling CW laser dies, so that's more market share. So you can think of it as Korean AAOI but EML instead of CW, and less capacity/qualifications. And playing catch-up to the rest of the world. However in terms of timelines: 1. 23dBm cooled ELSFP samples start in Q3 2026 2. Sales base for 800G, and 2027 1.6T "full force" 3. Late H2 2027, H1 2028 onward probably their ELSFP enters the volume production. And it seems they're working on 200G EML capability from their investor snipper 2025 OE IR snippet referenced “100GBaud EML / 200G PAM". This seems promising given their IP/demos. ELS has just been unveiled recently, sampling starts Q3. 800G/1.6T Optical transceivers are also likely 2027. So this is basically Korea's sovereign photonics player, playing catchup to $LITE, $AAOI, and the bigger players. (Disclosure: I have positions in OE Solutions (138080). This is fundamental research for informational purposes, not financial advice). As for OE solution valuations: 1. Doesn't seem like there's confirmed customers yet for these growth verticals. 2. Probably not many people understood what they're building toward yet. 3. Yields data kinda uncertain 1. Customers: We're actually in a major EML/CW laser shortage, so any independent capacity will be sought after. I personally don't think they'll have a hard time finding customers here. I would assume anything they make might get bought out and would get extra support from Korea. 2. Institutional support: Probably not much since it doesn't meet threshold for many US institution given MC size + KR listing. I also don't think many people understood what they're building yet. 3. Yields/Capacity: OE's disclosed wafer/module utilization is low (i remember was around 31% underutilized off the top of my head), so there's enough material revenue they can generate before they need to spend on capex. I'm also not sure about EML/CW and other yields. Probably need to go ask the company. Is this some random crap co? No. It's been doing optical transceivers stuff for more than 20Y, has R&D in the U.S. and Netherlands. But their entire AI growth vertical seems to happen next year, and hinges mainly around capacity/yields. And I personally think the EML/CW tech is probably worth a lot more than their current MC, if it were an acquisition target. Especially from a larger player that wanted to vertically integrate EML for pluggables and CW lasers for CPO. Markets are probably waiting on more certainty around qualifications after Q3 sampling or earnings projections announcements. TLDR on thoughts: Some of my friends discussed this last year, was probably way too early. Saw it got many comments 2 months ago, still too early. I still think now is early, but later in Q3-Q4 might be more interesting. I personally think it's a lot higher risk than a major CPO player like $SIVE, that's embedded in Ayar, $JBL, $GFS, and many other hyperscaler suppliers. Which also has Win Semi and others de-risking volume ramp. As OE Solutions looks like a new player trying to build out an $AAOI for the optical transceivers but sovereign EML and CW laser production for CPO products. And there's a lot of answered questions around customers + volume ramp, which presents material risk. But if you believe Korea can build out an 800G/1.6T transceiver EML supply chain and ELSFP with CW lasers. With OE Solutions, it might be worth taking a look into. Still researching the company tho, just initial thoughts.

In terms of personal notes: 1. Priortech owns 21% of $CAMT, ~1.35x their MC, seems more like holding co. 2. Bit Digital people kept shouting, but NAV discount is not clean $WYFI, lot of dilution + not AI parent. 3. Wistron (3231) is the best one I've seen since $SIVE + Ayar + Wiwynn are one of my favorite trio. ~$16.2B MC, Q1 revenue up a ridiculous amount with 144% Y/Y growth. Owns 35.46% of Wiwynn, which is ~0.66x of MC. I'd expect Wiwynn to keep on growing. 4. Sin-American Silicon 5483 does own 46.64% of GlobalWafers (6488). MC is $3.5B, stake value is ~$7.9B, but not exactly growing too fast independently, though it's heavily trading heavily discount to NAV. 5. Iljin Holdings owns 42.99% of Iljin Electric, it's ~$0.22B MC vs. ~$1.13B NAV holding. This was transformer/cable DC related. But again idk if I trust korean stocks for NAV unlock, probably better for activist investors. 6. Simmtech Holdings was ~$0.17B MC vs. ~$1.0B of parent, which also looks ridiculous. So 6x+ NAV. PCB substrate related name. Also another prob don't trust korean governance type name. I think both $ACMR and WUS have H-Share subsidiary listing soon, and those were the biggest NAV discounts with independent growth. Then you have a highly successful activist going after WUS so I'd expect some middle ground there. So maybe I'll put more concentration into those on top of what I already own Monday, we'll see. And Wistron was growing very fast independently. I'm still doing research, normally this goes in shower thoughts since I haven't formally made a conclusion, but thought others might be interested.

Wow, I completely missed this with $LPK meeting notes. And I think markets did too. My biggest takeaway: - NASDAQ listing is actively on their radar and are in discussions. - 70% market share targeted, unholy target. - TAM greatly exceeds former projections. - See a 4-5 base case of players this year with orders. - Industry is ready for high volume ramps. I do think LPK is very undervalued based on these discussions (disclosure: own positions).

I think something to highlight also is not all my ideas are green, especially on short term timeframes! My core three themes are Neoclouds (Energy), Memory, and Photonics. And I'm glad I chose the literal top performers for each segment from $NBIS to $EWY leaps to $SIVE. However, I still have pretty large losses following the false analyst report on CPO delays that $NVDA refuted: That nuked 3 of my TW CPO longs from Foci, Msscorp, Xintec and others. (which are heavily red). Shunsin / Win Semi are holding up much better though. Some of the other ones in Japan that I've mentioned like Towa, Harmonic Drive, NCI, etc. are performing much better following short-term volatility. As for Korea yes I have PTSD for from Auros and now Foosung that are both both red (I didn't own 093370 though, just got PTSD watching price action). Idk if I'll touch Korea again, just way too volatile. But I still think those will end up green eventually following Sk hynix/samsung qualifications + HVM, and the future japanese supply chain shutdown. I also did change some of my previous long ideas like $XLU following the Iran War nuking all chances of rate cuts from 3-4 down to 0, and that didn't play out too well. Three software names I mentioned previously like $TTD, $META ended up red. $SNAP, I also changed my thesis after noticing the endless SBC accounting methods. $RDDT idea was finally in the green from $130 -> $170 after a long time. But I think the vast majority of my ideas like $MRVL, $NBIS, $ARM, $INTC, $MU, $LITE, SK Hynix, Samsung, for larger cap. Down to $AXTI, $LITE, $AAOI, $RPI, $IQE, and others for smaller cap positions directionally play out pretty well. With random stuff like $SIMO, $HPS.A, $TSEM, $AEHR, $LPK, $SOI, $ALRIB, and so on all ended up turning out aight too. The blended average is kinda overwhelmingly green since majority of my long ideas are triple digit YTD. But I've definitely missed a few. Also entry point is really important too... I mentioned $AAOI at $30 or $AXTI at ~$13, but not everyone has the same entry point. So if someone bought AOI at $220 and it dropped to $160, I'd feel bad. But regardless, I'd prefer to judge how ideas play out on medium term timeframes over a few months rather than a few weeks.

@KristupasSimon2 Went long on Samsung through $EWY earlier on. Still think it’s cheap given operating income forecasts. https://t.co/l0VvosFlVE