Serenity @aleabitoreddit

So $SOI and $NOK are already more established. I looked into it deeper, and the proposals were focused around 30-500M funding and revenue incentives, to bridge the pre-volume production players to HVM. $SIVE / $XFAB map to policy incentives better, but wouldn't be surprised if larger players were there.

Europe is releasing its Tech Sovereignty Package, today June 3rd. This includes, CHIPS ACT 2.0, which is expected to prioritize photonics. Both $XFAB and $SIVE are highlighted in the Industry Policy Blueprints, which guides EU legislation. This proposes sovereign backing with €30–500 million financing facilities per company and revenue demand incentivizes. To bridge early European companies to volume production. I personally expect my two thesis ideas to be large beneficiaries: - $XFAB, given they're leading Europe's SiPH value chain, with Nokia and Nvidia evaluating them for photonics HVM. - and $SIVE as Europe's leader for lasers in AI datacenters, scaling lasers to mass production in 2027. More details will be announced today, but this is a structural tailwind to photonics critical to Western and especially EU supply chains.

@AyarLabs @nvidia Congrats! Great news for Ayar.

@venuvg18 I cost averaged the other day, it’s more high risk to see if they can shift from qualification to volume ramp with SK Hynix / Samsung. I’m seeing what happens h2

There we go. My CPO longs in Taiwan are finally starting to take off today. Shunsin +10% Foci +10% Xintec +10% Just waiting on Win Semi, Msscorp, and Nextronics to catch up.

@beauty_oe I’m aware! It’s really big news to have $SIVE as the laser supplier to $NVDA nvlink fusion ecosystem. Marvell joined few months ago and look what happened to their market cap after that. I’ll cover it later today!

@RockyKh49376975 Probably just Xintech (3374) which is kinda the unknown $TSM COUPE supplier. They happen to be owned by TSMC too.

@DeauDeuxsau Just H1 2027 should be glass core substrate volume orders with $LPK, kinda no news aside from waiting on that to happen.

@MattLay Honestly extremely surprised by those two, not going up another 50% yet. I think it’s because nothing CPO has scaled up yet so it’s not reflected in their balance sheets. But I have pretty high conviction in Foci, MSScorp is a lottery ticket for inspection monopoly.

Good times with $AEHR, it’s now ~$3.5B MC. Haven’t mentioned it as much since there’s nothing too new. Just waiting on volume orders for these types of players like $LPK, and others. https://t.co/W8k0ce3RSE https://t.co/MhEQmNgAek

@sdinakar7 I mean a few hundred billion dollar company ran 35% just because of a comment rather than fundamentals. So short term a bit overextended? He did say $1T though so that’s a 4x if you have the patience and believe in Jensenz

Okay yeah should have trusted Jensen more on $MRVL after what he did with $NBIS. He actually gave a $1T price target this time with Marvell. Marvell up 35% with one remark… https://t.co/Evv6QF8oMO https://t.co/gOXjfJIVE5

$LITE rode the first optical wave from $3B to $75B in 2 years time with EML and pluggables. My thesis is $SIVE can do the same from $3B, with CPO/Pluggables and CW. Sivers + GFS SiPH reference laser news, alongside the +54% increase today. Is just one step of the way.

@StocksAREnuts Yeah I’m up like 250% on $SOI, I’m surprised markets missed the at one… Also quite surprised about $XFAB valuations given they seem to be leading Europe’s photonics supply chain development…

Tbh $XFAB lowkey reminds me of early $TSEM. Just sub <$2B MC. You basically never find a company with $NVDA and $NOK actively validating your pre-commercial silicon photonics foundry… (photonixFAB) While getting CHIPS act/Gov grants to subsidize capex. While leading the Europe’s effort to build a photonics supply chain. Feels like that alone would justify valuations… but you get the power semi SiC/GaN operations for free too and all its assets. CHIPS act 2 is coming out tomorrow, and $XFAB is listed in the photonics blueprints. Did I miss something? Or did markets miss something?

DID YOU LISTEN ANON? Reuters: New Sivers x GFS strategic collaboration. $SIVE has now announced its lasers will be integrated into reference designs built on Globalfoundries Silicon Photonics Platform. For pluggable optical transcivers, CPO, and SiPH. This is fundamentally the most groundbreaking news for Sivers in history. As Broadcom, Nvidia, Marvell, AMD, and anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has Sivers embedded as a default laser route. I personally think this news alone should easily 2x or 3x Sivers market cap over the medium term, given how fundamental this is to their revenue. To have Sivers be the standard laser route for the many hyperscalers that use the world's leading photonics foundry.

The most consequential event of an entire company’s history. Got released today with a photonics player. Making them the functional standard laser for CPO, Pluggables, and SiPH. For companies like $NVDA, $AVGO, $AMD, to $MRVL using the foundry. Does anyone know the name?

@wangxindian @StormDirac I’m not sure people realize the gravity of this news with $GFS yet. It’s probably more fundamentally groundbreaking than $SIVE + $JBL. As $AVGO, $MRVL, $NVDA or anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has $SIVE embedded in the reference as default.

@StormDirac “Sivers Semiconductors’ laser arrays will be integrated into reference designs built on GF’s silicon photonics platform.” Woah that’s structurally massive news with $SIVE and $GFS.

$NVDA Jensen Huang: “ $MRVL the next $1T company ladies and gentlemen “. Marvell is currently trading at $191B. I have positions in Marvell… but how much faith do we have in Jensen for the 5x?

Just a heads up, I've uncovered a bot farm with dozens of accounts used to spread disinformation about $SIVE in the past few days. This illegal campaign likely stems geographically from Asia. As these accounts were used to do marketing for the same Asian projects like Alchemy Pay. Or bought brand new bought X accounts. All of which have no activity, but have an abrupt shift in timeline to repeating false claims about selling $SIVE positions and telling others to sell. With some getting caught using AI prompts to create a negative reply. This will be passed along to the SEC for investigation given there's certain traceability logs available. While the regulators investigate, maybe not a good idea follow along false bot farm advice.

$NBIS has anime plot armor! Happy to hear Weebius has been outperforming the market and Neocloud basket ( $IREN / $CIFR ). Last year post MSFT earnings, I gave a prediction after Q4 earnings, Nebius would reach a $100B MC. We’re currently sitting at $60B MC, getting close! https://t.co/e96TirkJT8 https://t.co/53pyspTHj9

@TheWizardofYYZ @ethics3606 Nothing. Just sentiment shifts after a good looking guy who runs a hedge fund sold $LITE positions.

No, unfortunately me going long on $LITE last year doesn’t send it to a $70B MC, unlike public opinion. they’re all driven by extreme forward revenhe growth, $AAOI $471m / month starting H2 2027. And $SIVE total forward revenue pipelines growing 77% in a single quarter, from new pluggable partners from $JBL to unannounced ones.

It’s mainly just “follow the leader” algorithmic selloff in current photonics markets. Most laser/optical related companies from $AAOI to $SIVE seem tied to $LITE performance… Despite individual fundamentals improving. Eg. (AOI with $AMD / $NVDA discussions). Algorithms don’t differentiate well, especially if something is higher beta than others. But if you know something markets don’t like Sivers with more optical transceiver customers unannounced. You can outperform in the long run. There’s a lot of 20%-30% intraday moves nowadays, so I personally wouldn’t trade these movements. Just going long on the Kingmakers in photonics thematically since I’m confident in exponential TAM growth.