Serenity @aleabitoreddit

Found this news funny about a new Swedish Hedge fund: Origo’s fund has lost substantial money shorting $SIVE. “The loss is one of the biggest this year" Many of these Swedish hedge funds are now heavily underwater. Just as an accidental byproduct of $SIVE being a core part of the CPO supercycle. Starting to make more sense why there’s a lot of false news being published. Especially if they’re facing infinite losses?

This timeline keeps getting more and more unreal… $NVDA Jensen Huang to meet Faker (League of Legends) I did talk with Jensen few years back about PUBG and GPU shortages for mining. And he was enthusiastic about ideas for cross-platform gaming + getting enough allocation to gamers. Fast forward to now, feels like Nvidia kinda ignored gamers… for AI, which is understandable. So this is a nice symbolic message for a return to Nvidia’s roots.

It’s a bit hard for major companies to go about acquiring CHIPS act funded companies like $SIVE on a whim. Or $IQE with gov ties. Lot of the venture arms just miss it sometimes too. $MTSI took a stake in IQE so that’s another path. Maybe $GFS or $JBL takes a stake in $SIVE following June’s vote.

Up to Win Semi and other foundries. Win Semi just did a private placement to scale up capacity, pretty confident they can scale up significant volume for $SIVE. Nobody knows the exact figures for late 2027 or 2028, but confident in one of the world’s leading foundries. But again, even if everyone in the industry mass produces cw, won’t be enough for overall demand. Which is why it’s a bottleneck.

I’m confident in my $SIVE thesis playing out and am not selling a single share. I tried to tell Swedish locals back at 6 SEK how compelling their frontier company was but they all transferred their shares to US retail since they couldn’t understand the concept of forward growth. If US retail want to follow disinformation about a wireless director selling shares like any normal employee would, 3 months ago, back to institutions. At the inflection of CPO/pluggable ramp… They’re free to as well. I’m just trying to combat disinformation by sharing all the nuances.

I’ve repeated this for every single stock, but insider selling means literally nothing. A managing director of wireless transferring ownership over to US investors doesn’t change any fundamentals about the business. CEO of $NVDA and $MU sell shares all the time but nobody bats an eye for a reason

@SidkMena It’s not a monopoly. Just technical dominance over ASIC/Merchant CPO route architectures . And wouldn’t be surprised if other pluggable players created novel 1.6T architectures using $SIVE too.

$SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year. Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances. Here’s the reason why: 1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings. Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML likely from former $NVDA contracts. -> Sumitomo/Furukawa = bottleneck -> Win Semi = bottleneck $SIVE does fab-lite, so are they a bottleneck? Yes, $SIVE sits in the laser bottleneck since control output supply of CW lasers from Win Semi and other fabs from allocation way early on (CEO stated they working with more capacity from other players as well). Perfect example is Kioxia/Sandisk. $SNDK controls NAND output, so they’re a bottleneck because they control final pricing. Demand exceeding supply from Ayar, Jabil, other pluggable vendors + Nvidia NVLink CPO ecosystem… final laser supply owned by $SIVE makes Sivers a bottleneck. $SIVE is also likely primary/sole source for Jabil, Gen-1 Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, and other hyperscaler asic/merchant CPO routes. So no way to get around it (can’t hot-swap single channel cw lasers with Sivers) 2. $SIVE is a chokepoint over CPO. $NVDA use $COHR, $LITE (which likely sources external cw capacity from Japanese competitors) $AVGO is likely vertically integrated as well. However: the entire ecosystem around it from ASIC programs (Marvell, AlChip, etc) and merchant programs (Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence) Are all likely designed around $SIVE. Ayar for example, likely tried to multi-source with $MTSI / $LITE back in 2022 but their lasers probably couldn’t match the level of Sivers specification with arrays (removed Lumentum / Macom from their supply chain site recently) If there’s no alternative at least for the initial generations (obviously they’re working to multi-source). That makes $SIVE a structural chokepoint to go through for lasers. Even if you look at the 1.6T LRO $JBL designed, they achieved a “drastic moat” with performance built around $SIVE likely sole source. $SIVE is also the foundry level reference laser design for $GFS, which your hyperscalers use like $AMD (likely using Sivers + maybe Ayar for gen1): If every major player, who hasn’t achieved vertical integration (Nvidia/Broadcom) is using Sivers for CPO… That makes them a chokepoint. Just look at the entire CPO $NVDA NVLink ecosystem partners: every single one are all likely using Sivers. And they all use $GFS as well (where Sivers is default reference). So $SIVE is both a chokepoint and bottleneck when CPO really scales up H2 2027, over one of the biggest architectural shifts of all time (near $0 -> $81B or $91B TAM in the next 1 1/2 years from GS research note) This is why I say $SIVE looks like it could be the next $75B $LITE over the next couple years. All of this should play out next year. And it’s still trading less than a company with $50M in purchase agreements that buys Sivers lasers to repackage them.

@_king142 $SIVE was probably the most recent visible laser chokepoint that’s still being rerated since seem to be in every $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystem partner + merchant/asic cpo supply chains. Maybe passive optical components supply chains in CPO next.

Too early of you’re referring to CPO usage. H2 2028 is probably timeline for commercialization. AMS / Mediatek / others are all working in this area but still in development. So maybe revisit H1 entering H2 2027. Lot of research reports state very low readiness, but I keep seeing a lot of media hyping this tech.

Yeah… I think all your upstream semi supply chain companies are going much higher. Goldman now expects a combined $5.3 trillion of capex spending for the four largest hyperscalers $GOOGL / $META / MSFT / $AMZN from 2025 to 2030. Revised up from $4.5T from Q1 earnings. “Aggregate capex est. $7.6 trillion between 2026 and 2031.” And it flows upward to these tiny chokepoints like $SIVE for CPO lasers/ $SOI for Silicon Photonics substrates. Leaderdrive/Harmonic for Humanoids components. And so on… Ai names don’t move in a straight line up, but is just the beginning of the next Industrial Revolution as we move from R&D/compute buildout into commercialization from Agents -> Physical AI -> discovery.

@RockyKh49376975 I ended up buying $IBIT and $ETHA today at $62K / $1.75K. Just swing trading those, not long term holding. But prices dropping hurts $HOOD / $COIN and the others.

Well, looks like it’s that time of the year again for $COIN, $HOOD, $CRCL and co. So much for a “friendly administration” and “strategic reserve” if they’re trying to ram through Bank Lobbied Clarity Act bills… To ban any form of innovation or competition against banks, with things like yields. And nuking liquidity as they go (but strengthens the USD) Valuations do seem compelling again if you’re swing trading.

No, people are misinterpreting $AVGO CEO comments. Demand is insatiable in general, but hyperscalers don't want to be bottlenecked, so it's inevitable $GOOGL and others multi-source. Broadcom's bottom line keeps increasing, but because the pie keeps increasing, Mediatek, Marvell, AlChip, and all the others will benefit too. But the latter much more than Broadcom.

$QCOM was Bytedance and maybe $AMZN if i remember correctly, not $GOOGL TPU. I'm really not a fan of how much exposure Qualcomm has to China though. But they made some really important photonics acqusitions like Alphawave (similar to what marvell did with celestial)... for optical networking ip. So theres upside, just neutral on them. More bullish on mediatek.

@TheRealTP I don't own MediaTek, but I expect them to heavily outperform next two years.

Just some random notes about $AVGO earnings transcript - Revenue target reiterated ($100B+ 2027, pretty sure markets wanted that to be raised this earning, hence the drop) Remember $NVDA Jensen comments about $MRVL $1T company around networking/connectivity/interconnects? - “So as the TPUs continue to accelerate, there’ll be pressure overall on margins. But the connectivity side, the AI networking side of the business has very rich margins” “Demand for … networking is simply insatiable” Also very positive read through as well for the $LITE and the other players. But for TPU margins it goes down at scale, which is understandable. - “they are placing orders in fairly huge demand, which basically gives us a lot more visibility.. runs all the way to 2028 right now” positive read through on overall AI demand since it’s 2026 now… and orders are out in 2028 - The initial order for 1 gigawatt, which includes XPUs and our networking has been received and will start Delivery in the second half of 2027. for our other two customers, we expect shipments to begin late 2026 and accelerate into 2027. $META custom AI program h2 2027 timelines - “Our revenue, our content per gigawatt will increase. you start putting a lot, you start putting embedding CPU cores into the same XPUs and making those chips basically multi die with lots of hvm.” Just for the GW modelers. - “For OpenAI we have delivered silicon and we are on track for production late 2026” OpenAI custom program timeline - “If you ask about 27 or 28 that will continue to grow. We expect in fact 28 to be a substantial growth from what we are forecasting in 27.” More about the demand ramp, go brrr - “Google, that we expect a diversity of sources from them” Mediatek (2454) primary beneficary, maybe $MRVL. Already expected though Google doesn’t sole source so they don’t get bottlenecked. There’s quite a lot of AI demand visibility way until 2028, which is bullish on the AI sector as a whole. Regardless, Broadcom ends the week +0% lol. TLDR: Strongly bullish AI demand, especially networking. Stocks don’t move in a straight line up, but demand curves 2026-> 2027 -> 2028.

Yeah, I saw Quantum namedropped, alongside photonics/AI. Personally I think quantum sector is still a bit far out, Foxconn said commercialization was 2030. So even if quantum players get funding, I'm personally not too focused on that area aside from maybe Riber that dip in multiple areas.

Europe has no chance of competing with the US regarding the AI race. But what they can do is strengthen their niche monopolies/chokepoints, and sovereign supply chain resilience. I think they're starting to realize how critical players like $SOI and $SIVE are to Europe tho. Which is why they put CPO/Photonics for AI DCs, and niche advanced packaging players on their focus policy.

EU CHIPS Act 2.0 proposal is now released. Great news: Photonics is now confirmed to be the new structural addition to EU policy. This is thematically bullish for the EU photonics sector. Thematically: - "This new component of the Chips for Europe Initiative supports the development of photonic integrated circuits and associated technologies" - "building and strengthening advanced design, prototyping, and industrial deployment capacities for photonic integrated circuit technologies and other photonic technologies across the Union" - "extend the Union’s design capabilities, including in photonics" - "strengthen existing and develop new pilot lines and open-access semiconductor manufacturing facilities for the prototyping and production of photonic integrated circuits and associated photonic technologies - "develop and maintain design libraries and design automation tools for photonic integrated circuits, associated photonic technologies" === More specifically policy specifically focuses on -> co-packaged optics for AI data centres (CPO/interconnects focus is bullish read through for $SIVE) -> “Silicon photonics … applications in high-bandwidth data-centre interconnects…” -> Capabilities in production technologies including co-packaging and heterogeneous integration with electronic chips, manufacturing equipment, and materials platforms for photonic integrated circuits shall be strengthened ( $XFAB) -> $SOI directly mentioned in impact analysis regarding structural strengths of the EU. "The EU has a relatively strong global position in SOI wafers, with Soitec and Siltronic being notable players" -> $XFAB also directly mentioned in impact analysis, as part of creating the current funding framework. Obviously structurally positive for $XFAB since they're literally leading the European Silicon Photonics Value chain and listed in First of a Kind (FOAK) category. Initial interpretation, this is heavily positive for EU photonics leaders that go inside AI DCs as part of EU Policy. I'm expecting optical players broadly to get a tailwind from this framework. TLDR: EU photonics structurally go brrr long term. Most positive confirmation is that photonics is structurally a part of European Union policy now. We'll likely see the individual photonics names come out after this release, within 3-15 months (typically in the middle somewhere). Markets are forward looking in general.

@laadred No, its because CHIPS ACT 2 was just published now and photonics was added. "photonics and photonic integrated circuits to the reinforced Chips for Europe Initiative 2.0" $XFAB is mentioned in some reports. The documents are too long still going through everything now.

@KayEffGeee $XFAB suddenly rose 7%, I wonder if there was any mention there. I'll go through transcripts now.

The difference between NASDAQ and EU listing: $POET: $2.4B MC -> Packages Sivers lasers -> One $50m pre-production contract for warrants > $XFAB: $1.7B MC ->SiC/GaN/MEMS/Silicon Photonics Foundry backed with EU CHIPS ACT, US CHIPS ACT PMT -> Below replacement P/B value -> $NVDA, $NOK direct eval of their pre-commercial SiPH foundry, volume ramping 2027/2028 -> $XFAB leading high-volume scaling of Europe's photonic supply chains as the foundry, with IMEC/CEA-Leti, Ligentec, Smart photonics, PHIX Photonics, Luceda Photonics, and Europe's photonic players under it. -> Leading customers like $NVTS, $POWI, Lite-On -> US from Dpt. of Commerce: "the only high-volume SiC foundry in the U.S."

@EestiRadar Glad $NBIS turned out well, that drawdown after blowout earnings was pretty brutal.

@WEB3_furture Great article! I actually didn't expect $NVDA to partner and take a stake in $MRVL this year. But I expected Marvell to be a compelling idea anyway from their upcoming ASIC/connectivity revenue opportunites.