Serenity @aleabitoreddit

私の(4092)赤リンの投資シナリオ、誰か覚えてる？ ほぼ100%上がってるよ！ https://t.co/J5Db900gl2 https://t.co/a3tQZVZ6nO

Can’t believe $ARM went straight from $134 to $354 when I took positions. The ~$15B annual revenue coming from these cool name AI CPUs seemed a bit insane at the time. At Computex, looks like $NVDA is unveiling new ARM based processors too. Counterpoint them shows them dominating AI ASIC servers by 2029, projections which is crazy… GPU:CPU ratios are requiring more and more CPUs. Seems like they have everything going for them?

Okay chat, it’s been awhile since the previous one. And a ton of names from $VPG to $ASPI cooked. So crowdsourcing a new list: What’s your highest conviction ticker that you think can 10x in a short timeframe, and why?

@aiizisw77940 @talethdabm89 Nope, it’s still the same with $LPK, just waiting on volume ramp to start.

中文社区又出了一篇佳作！ 当我发现像磷化铟（InP）衬底这样的产业链瓶颈或关键节点时，我通常会凭主观判断来进行操作。 这在很大程度上取决于能否准确预判下一次的技术架构演进！ 尤其是去年，当所有人都在说光技术还为时过早、铜互连不会被取代时，我果断做多了光通信供应链。 看到大家如何解读我的投资思路，并将其转化为更偏算法化、系统化的逻辑，真的非常有意思。

I wonder if my chokepoint investment theory… With $AXTI to $SOI to $SIVE will be studied in future history books? Regardless, I think everyone here is a part of making history. Given Reuters to Institutions to Countries are reacting to supply chain game theory with Serenity.

@AsianbeBlazin Because I’m confident $SIVE management knows what to do by themselves. If they operated like $SNAP I’d be more activist.

@_king142 No clue, just floating out my opinion into the public. But I’m extremely, extremely impressed with $SIVE management so far. And I think they’re heading down the right path with NASDAQ dual listing soon.

$SIVE is an extremely singular case just because of major US presence already from customers, cap table, CHIPS acts, and others. Staying primarily in Sweden with a local market that tries to hinder their growth, isn’t ideal. I wouldn’t say the same redomestication is the right path for other primary EU firms like $XFAB or $IQE and would encourage local European growth there given EU supply chains.

I think $SIVE should just become a full American company, and use NASDAQ listing as the first step. > US cap table / large ownership + US CHIPS act support already > larger valuation premiums + M&A opportunities. > local Swedish media blatant disinformation from underwater short sellers, isn’t helpful for AI photonics growth > lot of more funding opportunities + support from US institutions / funds / indexes By preserving EU efforts under a subsidiary and having a US parent company. This helps Sivers become a major US optical player, not just a Swedish semi trying to explain itself to local markets that doesn’t understand. I do think management sees a path forward for $SIVE to become the next dominant US photonics giant like $LITE.

@talethdabm89 The research firm got their glass core substrate timelines off. H2 2026 should be production start (SKC Absolics), not 2028. And TAM figures seems off toward 2040, so thought it was better not to cite it. Even though it’s not full value chain like $LPK and GCS in specific

Very grateful for the objective coverage in De Tijd! It’s cool to see my work in Belgium's top newspaper. Also very refreshing to see a journalist cover $AAOI, $XFAB, $MRVL Celestial, and the nuances behind my supply chain thesis in CPO + Photonics. Ty KLismont for the photo. https://t.co/1GdLxJHAsN https://t.co/WRqYKqNTxh

The “You’re So Rich Now” $NVDA ETF. These were just some of the supply chain partners Jensen made a toast to with that comment: TSMC (https://t.co/klkdidhdwN / TSM) - $1.95T Micron (MU) - $1.10T Delta (https://t.co/QU9iDMM1OA) - $202.28B Amphenol ( $APH )- $183.00B Foxconn (https://t.co/aTlwrBvYTH) - $128.88B Vertiv Holdings ( $VRT ) - $121.26B Luxshare (https://t.co/HXnZe7hGCv) - $78.99B STMicroelectronics ( $STM )- $61.60B Unimicron (https://t.co/hpt0Ophv4o) - $52.90B Asia Vital (https://t.co/RvcM9ecvSB) - $33.27B Lite-On (https://t.co/m9p28o5iLO) - $16.97B King Slide Works (https://t.co/KiNhmXtumB) - $15.35B BizLink Holding (https://t.co/yNk855AwXy) - $12.95B Megmeet Electrical (https://t.co/YdTe5Lhinp) - $10.78B Innoscience (https://t.co/1unM4FPf65) - $8.30B Chenbro Micom (https://t.co/8RU12cTJDW) - $5.44B JPC (https://t.co/6EU7QhvSnh) - $1.15B WUS Printed Circuit (https://t.co/52yoDEJ8Wh) - $972M

Everyone is out there making life changing returns on $RDDT. Fully leveraged on the wrong $SPCE (Virgin Galactic) ticker. Instead of $SPCX, which is yet to launch. I guess this just goes to show how much retail demand there is for SpaceX’s IPO.

Hot take: Given $MSFT laptops/PCs are now likely using $NVDA hardware. They might have a shot of taking down $AAPL. Only if Windows OS UI weren’t a flaming pile of garbage compared to how clean Apple OS is. You would think a $3T company would know better UI design by now?

Yo no sé cuántas personas hablan español en X... ¿Es verdad este post? Hablo un poco porque jugué fútbol en Mexico por dos o tres años Voy a publicar un thesis sobre CPO o $AAOI en español si hay muchas personas que leer mi post jaja Lo siento, mi español es malo

@GabrielNeo9 Not really, you want purer play, high beta exposure to their optical division. Foxconn as a whole is way too big. You’re comparing a $123B company to a $2B company, then seeing which doubles faster

Per Foxconn shareholder meeting: CPO switch products expected to begin Q3. 10K units 2026, explosive grow to next year. Aims/expected to be #1 globally. Anyone remember which Foxconn subsidiary handles their advanced optical work? cough.. cough.. Shunsin (6451). Lot of these exponentially scaling volume shipments won’t show up in balance sheet yet, but will likely soon H2. This is called frontrunning the next supercycle.

When I first joined it was primarily folks trying to sell expensive community paywalls or TAs. Everyone crowded around the same large stock $PYPL or $UNH investing if they had public thesis. Or hype names like $HIMS. Large part of my popularity was focusing on critical chokepoints, which was my own investing style. Having them validated in markets like $AXTI that went up a few thousand percent. Then not gatekeeping any information. I’ve been getting a lot of copycats that are rising in popularity, but I actually encourage it if they bring their own opinions. As this helps democratize alpha and ideas. I think the recent popularity is just from starting a completely new trend.

@softmaxedx Yeah, the 0-10 ghost/TP nunu mains have been calling Jabil/Ayar/Apple/Celestial laser supplier a memestock since 1000% ago.

> markets went from doubting $SIVE customers ($150m MC) Turns out it’s likely companies eg. $JBL, Ayar, $AAPL, Defense Primes, $MRVL celestial. > to doubting their execution ($600m mc) Turns out you skip the capex if you go with Win Semi > to doubting what share they get vs competitors like $LITE ($1.2B mc) Turns out it’s likely sole source for companies like $JBL and primary suppliers for Ayar. > to doubting their revenue opportunities ($2B MC) Turns out they got 77% pipeline growth in just a few months > to doubting their partners like Win Semi’s ability to scale (we are here) Anyone who thinks Win Semi… one of the worlds most important foundries for $AVGO, $LITE, SpaceX supply chains… can’t scale capability by 2028 is a stupid bear. We’re at the point where US retail investors acquired the float off Swedish investors. But I’m expecting US institutions to find a way to shake out US retail like they did with $NBIS or $RKLB before the next supercycle.

You already have $JBL as one example, confirming excessive demand with $SIVE expected sole source laser provider for their 1.6T LRO. Don’t really have concerns there. It’s more about looking Jabil or Ayar, then seeing that scale flow back to Sivers once those ramps. And I’d expect a lot of revenue projection hikes next quarter.

@onlyonexhj $JBL acquired part of $INTC optical transceiver division, which is how they’re able to do what they’re doing with $SIVE.

Had some more time go through $SIVE earnings transcript, it’s very bullish: - $JBL pluggable partnership led to more optical transceiver requests for $SIVE So maybe Innolight/Eoptolink and other large players are my guess. - More laser capacity on top of Win Semi with more partners being developed. “When the timing is right, we will bring those details to the market.” CEO said it’s not just Win/Glasgow. I’m already confident in Win Semi scaling capacity, given they’re critical in SpaceX / $AVGO supply chains already. But this derisks those capacity ramp even more. Just not publicly disclosed yet. - tremendous executive credibility and experience with U.S. markets, as well as strong M&A experience Flagged M&A in regards to new board members, which we guessed based on their backgrounds. - “Production orders are imminent from our lead SATCOM”… So that’s volume ramp for space - U.S dual listing progressing smoothly No exact timeline, my personal guess was around late Q3 or Q4. Probably after June board meeting, they’ll announce timing since that’s when new board members come in. - “Viewing the ecosystem vendors as competitors is the wrong way to go about it in supercycles where demand far outstrips supply.” Too much demand in photonics - “Over the last five months, there's been a rapid increase in the Photonics pipeline as well” Basically 77% growth pipeline came from photonics (which validated thesis about cpo/pluggable growth vectors for sivers) TLDR: We moved from “can sivers get customers this small and can they compete with $LITE?” To execution eg. “how much can sivers even produce to feed into each supercycle” as they’re volume ramping while demand > supply.” To me that’s very positive if anything they make gets bought. Also there’s likely to be a lot of TAM expansion in the photonics space post-M&A as well as more ongoing hyperscaler supplier qualifications hinted. Again, revenue pipeline surged 77% in just their quarter (5m) largely from photonics… over the entire company’s history. As CPO scales up h2 2027 onwards, I’m expecting the revenue numbers to look like an exponential curve.

I still find it funny how all the software bros are happy about a 10-15% recovery with $CRM to $FIG. After getting wiped 25-60% of their portfolio. Meanwhile all the AI names from $SNDK to $AAOI are casually up 200-1000%.