Dumb Signal has archived 669 posts
from Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) and classified
28 as real trade calls — each priced the day it was
made and graded by direction-signed returns at 1D / 1W / 1M / 1Y, deletion-proof.
@CryptoHayes
Jun 28, 2026 · 20:26 ET
stock
1st mention
trade
intent
I still want to be long the Hyperliquid ecosystem but I need some asymmetry. It’s time for an options dex to properly take on Deribit. Hypercall, owned by $SYN, is that challenger. Let’s see if they can cook.
$HYPE$SYN
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
|---|
| $HYPElong |
-2.7% | +5.6% | -19.3% | — | -22.0% |
| $SYNlong |
+10.1% | -26.6% | -74.1% | — | -82.4% |
The Holy Trinity is dead. Sadly due to the Orchard Pool exploit, I had to dump our entire $ZEC bag.
- While I think it's extremely unlikely of any minting, it cannot be formally cryptographically proved impossible
- The privacy from AI, govt, big tech narrative demands perfection not improbability
- I read about the exploit yday, and didn't appreciate how it violated my narrative mental map. The 30% dump, made me rethink, and I had to take profit on the entire position
- We will consistently re-evaluate our thinking and if my assumptions are proven incorrect, will rebuy, hopefully at lower prices.
- Privacy is priceless and I have no issue eating humble pie and rebuying much higher.
We still hold $WLD and are excited for Lord Elon to pump our bags.
$ZEC$WLD
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
|---|
| $WLDlong |
-21.8% | -13.5% | -21.0% | — | -42.7% |
| $ZECshort |
+7.1% | -5.6% | -18.4% | — | -18.8% |
I just dumped my entire $HYPE and $NEAR position, I will explain why in my essay "Reality Test" dropping next Tuesday.
TLDR:
- Higher energy prices due to Iran war and inventory restocking
- 3 Mega AI IPOs between now and early Q3
- Prediction that Trump goes anti-AI to win mid-terms for Republicans
- I think highs in mrkts will happen btw now and September
- Time to take profit, and two-step in beefa without worrying about my positions
$HYPE$NEAR
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
|---|
| $HYPEshort |
+7.2% | +8.5% | -8.5% | — | +19.0% |
| $NEARshort |
+10.6% | +6.2% | +9.2% | — | +23.9% |
@KyleSamani Fuck yeah LFG. We can take the 00:00 UTC 2 June 2026 to 00:00 1 Jan 2027 on Bybit. HYPEUSDT vs SOLUSDT deal?
$HYPE$SOL
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
|---|
| $HYPElong |
-5.1% | -13.2% | -15.2% | — | -29.1% |
| $SOLlong |
-8.7% | -17.7% | -4.7% | — | -11.4% |
Hey @KyleSamani maybe you were busy last time I pinged you. Let's do a gentleman's charitable bet. I put $100k on the line to a charity of your choice that $HYPE outperforms any other current top ten crypto in USD terms from now until year end. Who is your champion?
$HYPE
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
|---|
| $HYPElong |
-5.1% | -13.2% | -15.2% | — | -29.1% |
@viverelaxmx My shitcoin portfolio def in bull market. Choose better degen.
@CryptoHayes
May 14, 2026 · 07:59 ET
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1st mention
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intent
My AI bags need the Cerebras IPO to pop. I went to @HyperliquidX to figure out grey market on where it might open in a few hours. IPO price $185, so indicating a ~50% pop. Long live perp DEXs!!!
$CBRS
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
|---|
| $CBRSlong |
| | | | |
The only thing we're buying right now is $HYPE
$HYPE
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
|---|
| $HYPElong |
+2.0% | +15.4% | +11.7% | — | +34.6% |
@CryptoHayes
Jan 13, 2026 · 16:17 ET
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1st mention
trade
position
My essay "Frowny Cloud" will drop tomorrow. My key degen trade for this first quarter is LONG: $MSTR and $3350 (Metaplanet) as levered plays on $BTC getting its groove back.
$MSTR$3350$BTC
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
|---|
| $BTClong |
+1.5% | -7.3% | -30.6% | — | -34.2% |
| $MSTRlong |
+3.7% | -7.4% | -28.9% | — | -46.1% |
| $3350long |
| | | | |
Nibble nibble.
$ZEC on sale.
$ZEC
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
|---|
| $ZEClong |
-9.0% | +17.5% | +48.2% | — | +34.3% |
I'm out. Send this dogshit to ZERO!
$MON 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭
$MON
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
|---|
| $MONshort |
+13.1% | +32.0% | +43.2% | — | +49.2% |
minor improvements in $ liq:
- fed qt stops dec 1, this wed will prob be last fall in b/s
- us banks increased lending in nov
we chop below $90k, maybe one more stab down into low $80k's but i think $80k holds. might start nibbling, but leave the bazooka until the new year
$BTC
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
|---|
| $BTClong |
-1.1% | -2.2% | -0.8% | — | -28.9% |
What’s your hedge?
Mine is $ZEC.
$ZEC
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
|---|
| $ZEClong |
-2.2% | -21.7% | -33.9% | — | -31.1% |
@CryptoHayes
Nov 14, 2025 · 20:52 ET
stock
1st mention
trade
This chart is just so stronk I aped more.
$ZEC > $XRP
$ZEC$XRP
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
|---|
| $XRPlong |
-0.7% | -12.6% | -14.9% | — | -52.5% |
| $ZEClong |
+4.7% | -22.1% | -38.0% | — | -30.5% |
@CryptoHayes
Nov 04, 2025 · 01:43 ET
stock
1st mention
trade
Please understand the risks you are taking when using leverage and debt in defi. You should never be liquidated. With that said, thanks for the low entry on some more $WILD tokens. Can't wait for the Open World launch in Dec. https://t.co/ZbsVWFfgOE
↗ Quoting @real_n3o
$WILD
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
|---|
| $WILDlong |
+2.8% | -6.3% | -22.5% | — | -31.3% |
Recently when people in #crypto ask how I am, I just say $ZEC.
$ZEC
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
|---|
| $ZEClong |
+1.7% | +60.6% | +5.9% | — | +14.4% |
This is why we dumped $HYPE today. But don’t worry 126x is still possible 2028 is a long way off. https://t.co/VLSISNzbcc
↗ Quoting @maelstromfund
$HYPE
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
|---|
| $HYPEshort |
+5.5% | +2.2% | +23.2% | — | -10.3% |
