Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI

For years I've written that the entire economy is heading on-chain, and that the smart contract networks are the only rails it can possibly run on. Here's the thing people still haven't understood. Billions of AI agents are about to come online, and they're going to transact constantly... paying each other for compute, data, services, at a scale and speed no human market has ever seen. The existing financial system physically cannot carry them. It’s too slow. And it looks like institutions are catching on. Just last week: Franklin Templeton called AI agents the “use case that finally drives blockchain adoption” Coinbase's agent-payment rails got adopted by Google and Amazon. Samsung put stablecoins in the Galaxy wallet. David Solomon went against the rest of Wall Street to back the Clarity Act. And this is just one week. The rails are being laid, the machine economy is coming to run on them, and most people are still whinging over the daily price movements. We're about to onboard billions of agents onto a financial system that didn't exist twenty years ago. This is fucking wild.

@fitzyOG We've covered Bittensor ecosystem in depth if that's what you mean

Well we kind of knew that people wanted a lot of Mac Minis for Openclaw... but this is wild. A product that didnt sell amazingly now is the hottest Apple product... all because of AI. However,r Apple is still not actually doing anything about AI integration... equally wild. https://t.co/HLMHUmvY0m

@Kylechasse Turo

Excited to help @xMoney_com bring regulated stablecoin payment rails to Europe and beyond.. https://t.co/552GqNp49w

Extraordinary post if you are interested in Sui and DEEP. What has been built and the vision is unique and big. https://t.co/nUe1bKzUfA

The key question is going to be how many L1's are optimal and what configuration of L1 capabilities will prevail. My guess is 5 or 6 with clear leaders and core challengers. The L1 trade is the cleanest as you can use Metcalfes Law approximation models to value them vs DCF models. Network adoption models tend to outperform. Some of the applications later will outperform but it's harder to bet on. My proxy for Metcalfes Law that gives the best correlation is total value transacted per active user. This can be normalized to give like for like comps and then weighted for where they are on the adoption curve. It works well. Using ETH as the base smart contract L1, SOL is still cheap, SUI is super cheap vs SOL, as is NEAR ( no position). An easier way to estimate it, with still high correlation, is stable coin value transacted per active user. Active user are those that transact in stables, DeFi, dex's etc not just buy or sell

@iwazaruh @GBrewer17 The real money is actually to be made in owning the gold. See NVDA for details. Late investors use the picks and shovels argument. BTW I missed NVDA but got SMH

@Tyler_Neville_ Maybe Buffet is raising cash to pass the business on to his successor with optimal optionality

Meanwhile Total3ES. Text book wedge.

On Energy and AI: We are all aware of the urgent need for massive new energy infrastructure for data centres and other general needs. The grid is old and the supply is constrained. Investor capital is pouring into nuclear soluations, new gas plants and other opportunities and the bottleneck will be better solved in 5 years+ However, the need for the extra energy is URGENT and IMMEDIATE... The AI race is the most important technology race that will ever occur. It is not just about hyperscalers and their profits, but about the game of nations. There is only one energy solution that can hyperscale in 12 to 24 months and that is solar. China has shown this by adding more than the total amount of energy created by Solar elsewhere globally, in one year. The rise of solar in China is one of the great exponentials. China knows the game here. Everyone else has to play catch up. The Kardashev Scale is the correct way to think about this. The sun is 99.9% of the mass of the solar system and we are harnessing <1% of its energy that hits earth. 1 sq mile on the earths surface receives 2.5 gigawatts of solar energy. Yes, solar panel efficiency is low and usable daylight hours is restricted but the amount of solar panels required in relative terms of the surface size is small. Solar is not yet perfect as the supply of energy is intermittant (nights/bad weather etc) and efficiency is low (but rising as tech improves) but costs are collapsing exponentially, even taking into account panel replacements and no subsidies (it doesnt require them). Some of the issues are offset by batteries which currently solve for 4 hours of extra storage. Tesla's Megapacks are growing at 50% to 70% per year and other players are also scaling fast. Battery tech will only imporve from here too. Just the use of solar + batteries reduces demand on the exisiting grid by upto 65% (you only need to use the grid load for perdiods of time). This helps massively in this rapid scaling to avoid an overload of the grid. Solar + batteries also allows for localised, decentralised energy grids for specifc use - factories, datacenters, etc. The load on the grid will be reduced after 2 years or so when new localised gas plants are built to balance the loads. Gas plants are the cheapest, cleanest and fastest of the fossil fuel solutions but it takes longer to scale than solar and requires a lot of gas pipelines. Weirdly, solar seems to be politicised, but its going to become an economic imperative as nothing else can solve the needs of the massive data centers in the next 1 to 2 years, and no one can afford to be leftr behind in the race to AGI and beyond. AI is the most important technology humanity will ever develop as it replaces us as the apex intelligence on earth and is vastly more energy efficient than humans at compute/intellgence output. The core metric for the universe itself is: Intelligence per unit of energy For this to scale exponentially, AI will replace humans as the primary source of intelligence and the sun's energy is most of the energy on earth. Even oil is just biologically-stored sun energy with finite supply. In terms of investability, there are two opportunities that stand out as long-term plays: The Solar ETF TAN is down 84% from its high, has formed a perfect base on both the log chart and the regular chart. TSLA is the other obvious play as it dominates the large battery sector and batteries account for 10% of total revenues and are growing rapidly and will continue to do so. The Tesla chart is one of the best in the Exponential Age. Anyway, I know because solar is politicised that people will rush to fight in the comments but don't bother unless you can solve the urgent energy needs for AI in the next 1 to 2 years by any other method.... you can't. And yes, dear troll, we all understand that there are lithium, copper and other needs, and yes, there will be an investible bull market in those too (amongst other major commodities) as the business cycle and the Capex cycle heats up... and yes, there will be supply issues if you havent carefully planned/hedged. But you need to warm up to solar... its going to get hot. (Time horizon is now and for the next 5 years+).

@brianmcgrath Amazon, Google, NDX, MSFT etc all have same log charts and for longer and the slope never changed.

Yes but the hard thing is a few players will survive and they will create network effects beyond our comprehension so its rational for such high valuation at this stage, even if we have a capital destruction cycle at some point. The thing I'm mulling over is let's say 2 to 3 big AI/LLM players go bust. The compute/energy will go to the survivors and that hyper scales AI beyond what we know as the current LLM's today. The bet is whether LLM's can exponentially accelerate with RL or if the Labs create new neural networks which have more quantum elements via biological compute or other methods. Waaaay too early to know all these outcomes yet. Zuck understands this and will happily destroy 100's of billions of dollars to get to the next level of AI, because he can afford it and cant afford to lose. Same with Google. The game is the biggest ever played.

RT @RealVision: Amazon and Walmart are exploring stablecoins. Visa and Mastercard are building onchain. 🤔 What are you waiting for? In t…

Journey Man's July recap in case you missed it... 00:20 Drinks with Raoul (round 17) 02:00 Charles Cascarilla from @Paxos 05:06 @jvisserlabs 10:30 @fejau_inc + @BittelJulien 18:23 Sandy Kaul from @FTI_US 20:55 @bretttejpaul from @CoinbaseInsto enjoy!

@jeffzhang02 They will build on SOL too but ETH will be dominant for them.

@sergitosergito The last time in phase 1, BTC doubled and Sui 5x'd

Hi ... need a favour... Can anyone by chance introduce me to @juliahartz the CEO of @eventbrite pls? Thanks!

Wow, $HOOD, $COIN and $RKLB going vertical now. All in the RV Pro portfolio (added to all via calls at April lows). $TSLA likely to follow. Next step, crypto. The liquidity spigot is wide, wide open...

@saylor on Real Vision: The interview that started it all for many in 2020. One of the most viewed interviews of all time and likely the first to explain the reason behind the wave of Bitcoin treasury companies... Enjoy! 00:00 Intro 05:00 Michael Saylor’s MIT roots & Air Force story 09:00 Founding @MicroStrategy $MSTR ('89) 16:38 Domain plays & early ventures 26:50 Embracing focus & stoicism 29:57 First #Bitcoin misstep & epiphany 36:24 Treasury cash strategy pre-COVID 45:01 Pandemic fuels virtual pivot 49:47 The currency war & asset inflation 59:21 Gold vs. Bitcoin as “hard money” 01:12:06 Choosing Bitcoin for the long haul 01:18:36 Why $BTC outclasses gold 1:27:12 Winning board & audit buy-in 1:43:38 Closing insights