Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI

Look what I dug up. November 2013. As far as I know the first proper macro write up of Bitcoin anyone had done, telling my GMI subscribers to buy it at $200. Everyone thought I'd lost it. A $200 internet coin, taken seriously in a macro letter. Wasn't mad though... just early. Thirteen years later and I'm still here, deeper in it than ever. What started as one early call has become the centre of how I think about the entire future. Crypto isn't a side bet anymore. It's one of the only things that outruns the debasement of your savings, and the smart contract networks are becoming the rails the whole exponential economy runs on. Here's the bit most people still haven't understood... Bitcoin and the smart contract networks aren't the same bet. They're not even the same kind of thing. One is where you store your wealth. The other is what the entire economy gets rebuilt on top of. That's what I've written up this week. The whole picture, thirteen years on.

When the market gets boring and quiet and everyone turns bearish, I like to come back to the story of how I fucked it all up. And I fucked it up a lot of ways, because crypto is genuinely hard. People think the cycles just repeat. They don't. Every one has a different texture, a different context, and it is so easy to get it wrong. I got in back in 2013. Wrote the first ever macro piece on Bitcoin, and bought at $200, straight into a peak right before it slammed down and I felt like an idiot. But I had a thesis. And the mistake was never the thesis. It was letting the noise talk me out of it... selling, trading around it, being clever, when the only thing that ever worked was holding. That is the whole lesson, and it is the one that matters most at times like this. Crypto is one of the only real secular trends that lets you build wealth against the debasement of your salary. And as the Exponential Age accelerates, it matters more, not less. So when the market gets depressing, I do the same thing every time. I go back to the thesis, and I accumulate. Zoom out.

@angusshillingto Buy SMH and chill

@IndigoKalika I have never sold a token and bought a big chunk more at $2.60 last week. That you for your attention to this matter.

I think it needs explaining that although I see an elongated cycle it doesn't mean my analysis is right. The breadth and depth of macro/crypto analytics framework I've added since 2021 is massive and I'm happy with the probabilities currently but things can change... At GMI we have done tremendous amounts of work on this all at the nexus of crypto and macro in The Everything Code. It comprised of over 4,000 charts (serious). However, I am not a guru. We all need to take lifestyle chips off the table to secure our own future.. I can't dictate that. In RV too we will do our best to help as many people as possible, But we are not, and will not be, perfect. This is your choice alone. Not mine. Only you can actually protect your own future and thus limit regret if the market reverses or even it explodes higher. I'm guessing I'll take 25% to 30% off into year end but I don't know yet. It's based on my own circumstances, not yours and its based on my p&l and not yours. Also don't forget that your risk profile is different to mine... I can afford to take outrageously concentrated risks like having 80%+ of my liquid stack in Sui. But based on my work I think Sui it outperforms most others majors. I am not a maximalist and my portfolio can and will change but I will let you know if my analysis changes. My job for myself is to maximise profits with best risk adjust returns. For most, just buy BTC, ETH and SOL My job for myself is to max profits with best risk adjust returns I think are available. The Banana Zone won't fix your shitty asset allocation. If you have had a decent portfolio you will already be up 5x to 10x from the low. If you are newer, don't chase gains, time in the market is vital, you should make money this cycle but here is more to play for over time, You have 5 years or so to Unfuck your Future. Please don't fuck it up. This will be my pinned tweet so you can refer to it. Just let it all play out and take profits on the way. Good luck. My work suggests the next 6 to 9 months can change all our lives but don't bet on it exclusively. If you want to reduce risk and also play for higher prices consider selling some and buying longer dated calls in due course, where you can only lose your premium (as I did in 2021 with ETH and only risked 5% for a potential leg higher which failed). I appreciate your attention in this matter.

@JKoczkodon @RipBullWinkle Then dont assume the worst...the only thing I am connected to is Sui which Im on the board of but still switched most of my entire liquids net worth into

Wow, $HOOD, $COIN and $RKLB going vertical now. All in the RV Pro portfolio (added to all via calls at April lows). $TSLA likely to follow. Next step, crypto. The liquidity spigot is wide, wide open...