Serenity @aleabitoreddit

I know everyone’s watching $NVDA earnings right now… But did you know Landmark signed a 4 year CW agreement with US customer to ensure “sufficient supply”? So now you have: - $LITE (capacity gone) - $COHR (capacity gone) - Landmark (capacity committed) - $AAOI (capacity for transceivers) - $MTSI (not online) - $SMTC (limited) I remember saying earlier this year CW lasers would be the next optical shift and heavily bottlenecked by Nvidia? So fun watching this play out, with players signing LTAs already to 2030 (signaling less availability for other players). Implications for $SIVE / Win Semi are very material as one of the few remaining CW merchant suppliers with capacity (+ CPO-grade lasers). Let’s see how they execute.

@4intheflames I’ve been too excited about DDR3/DDR2 implications to look at $NVDA earnings or sleep.

The concept of “cascading bottlenecks” is just super cool. Because of DDR4 supply shocks and costs: Lot of ODMs are redesigning downward from DDR4 -> DDR3 -> DDR2. But even the legacy players themselves like Winbond are withdrawing from DDR2. Making the bottleneck even worse

I love how so many people requested $SIVE that Saxo Japan went out of their way to list it! Just goes to show how much demand there is for this laser company. Special shoutout to Saxo. And of course, excited for Sivers earnings + planned Nasdaq listing coming up. https://t.co/6jTQlojKdk

@AheadOfTmrw I also misspelled Semtech 2 times, mistakes happen

All right back to $SMTC movie: "The bottleneck go Brrr": My favorite quote was: "availability currently matters more than pricing". In the current market for optical products. - No near-term erosion is expected on booked optical orders, which signals they're passing cost increases through fine. - I was actually curious most about Semtec's CW laser products after the HieFo takeover: Semtech expects CW-laser revenue for transceivers to begin H1 FY28. Explicitly said capacity is limited. They still seem materially further behind compared to the laser leaders, but they're making progress for 2027 ramp. - TIA and driver solutions remain in exceptionally strong demand (confirmed from $AAOI earnings). Continues to deepen engagement across all the leading hyperscalers. "We are now designing to every module provider", expected 50%+ market share for 1.6T FiberEdge (TIA + driver) by years end. Very strong statement to make about being majority market share. - 1.6T FiberEdge qualifications finishing earlier than expected (good read through for your pluggable makers eg. AOI) q: "quick thoughts on how long into 2028 does that backlog extend?" a: The backlog for the remaining of this fiscal year, I would say for our target is all booked. For the next year, we probably over 70% there. Management said current capacity may not be enough for fiscal 2028, especially in the second half (great demand visibility) Q2 revenue: - $341.9M vs. ~$329M expected - adjusted EPS was $0.71 vs. $0.61 Q3 guidance was most exciting: $410M revenue vs. ~$360M revenue $1.05 EPS vs. $0.73 EPS. yeah... just look at that beautiful revenue inflection Q/Q. So gigantic beat, great read through on 1.6T ramp. I don't own Semtec, but these were amazing earnings.

Lost interest in $SMTC and every other earnings report today after finding a memory name way too interesting not to research...

@jusmentrades uhh, pretty sure $GFS is a 2027-2028 type optical rerating story... fyi they're like 11.5 fwd p/e ending 2028 and 7.5x longer term, so idk about betting on a 1 1/2 month timeframe in 2026.

Price took a hit largely due to Boostrap Europe converting 7% of shares outstanding and selling that into the Swedish market from ~July 3rd to maybe ~August 18th completion. That happened alongside the overall AI sector drop + incorrect reports of CPO delays + short sellers with timing. There was the final 1.659M in warrants from 2 weeks ago, and looks like it got sold into market strength. That overhang is largely exhausted, so I think $SIVE will go back to normal after a catalyst (like earnings).

Lot of people were wondering about $SIVE earnings in 2 days. What I'm watching out for: 1. I'm hoping for more visibility on photonics co-development/qualifications/contracts. -> $AAOI stated multiple customers approaching them for CPO lasers (but had to turn them away) -> $MTSI stated many customers approaching them for CW capacity (but doesn't come online until H2 2027) So read through for a company serving as $GFS reference laser, $JBL for pluggables (ex. intel siph), to Ayar for CPO. And in a merchant position: -> with independent CW DFB supply (with Win semi) -> CPO-grade lasers. Is incredibly positive for more customers approaching Sivers. 2. Ongoing developments turning into volume -> I'm most excited about $JBL, which would probably be the main revenue ramp in H1 2027. -> $AEVA is likely much smaller in comparison, but should be a contributor H2 2026. -> Ayar and optical I/O players already stated 2028 for HVM, so not really expecting much there. -> Co-developments from their other pluggable players (from last ER) turning into qualifications -> volume). Aside from that: 3. NASDAQ listing -> We already got timelines for that "next few quarters", so it's not really a focus to narrow that down further. Always nice to get an update. 4. Financials -> Again, current financials aren't a focus for qualification-cycle players. Just a heads up, there's some one-time accounting this quarter, which affects things optically. Main thing is volume ramps for future quarters. -> revenue pipeline increase -> any early volume contracts signed Balance sheet concerns should be cleared now given their recent $70m fundraising + bootstrap dilution overhang gone. Bonus cookies: -> Any information about allocations secured "eg. we have substantial CW capacity secured -> would be extremely high signal given current shortages. -> Reiterate demand that AOI, Macom, Lumentum, Coherent stated. "eg. any capacity we get would be filled from demand" $AAOI had their massive $30 -> $220 rally after they stated like $471M expected capacity in 2027, and reiterated that into revenue guidance. (but then had a lot of ATMs) An ambitious bull case + full capacity revenue statement for future timelines like H1 2028 for Sivers would be nice, but not expected. A further re-rating would help for M&A with a Cloud Light type acquisition for revenue acceleration in future earnings. Obviously Sivers has other volume ramps, but I think photonics is what the market is primarily underwriting. Regardless, excited for what's up and coming.

Good question, it's mainly third party commentary + actions around $SIVE. Ayar probably speaks volumes to me most removing $LITE / $MTSI from their supply chain section of their site. Then just featuring Sivers by itself for the laser suppliers. VP at Ayar also said Sivers was ... "essential to powering our optical I/O solution", which is pretty high signal commentary. Then you have $JBL that built a 1.6T LRO after selecting Sivers, which is very rare. And bragged about their technological moat at one of the fireside chats. Then $GFS choosing Sivers as the reference laser too and featuring them in their presentations... Feels like all your leading players are moving forward with Sivers for some reason? And I'd assume these leading companies did their DD

@adiradir734145 I think markets just need to let the masterchef $SIVE cook. From other earnings, everyone seems to be going out and approaching players like $MTSI or $AAOI for agreements. So, seems like there's a decently high chance Sivers gets some new qualifications or co-developments.

@Partfortynineg1 I got you covered with the $AXTI cope boobworld morty.

@areandatard Why is $SIVE living rent free in your head when it's not even mentioned

I know everyone's focused on Nancy Pelosi copytraders sending $BE up 11.83%. Or Trump... But you know what else is cool? FAU bottlenecks for CPO. I remember saying earlier this year FAU/Foci might be a future bottleneck around $TSM / $NVDA CPO roadmaps... This was some media commentary supporting that: "It is understood that Largan Precision (3008), FOCI (3363), and China’s TFC have entered $NVDA FAU supply chain" "Based on an estimated 20,000 Spectrum-X systems shipped this year, the optical engines installed in those systems would require approximately 600k-700k FAUs" In 2027, demand is expected to reach several million units, and existing supply chain capacity is currently unable to meet demand." (UDN, mandarin -> english translation is kinda off) Cough cough, "existing supply chain capacity is currently unable to meet demand" Tad early right now since mass production is expected H2 2027, but cool to read updates around this.

Not exactly, I think $AAOI stated they avoided LTAs so they wouldn't have too much capacity committed to one customer and have to turn away others. If they signed LTAs with prepayments, then that in scenario there probably wouldn't need to be such sizeable ATMs. Decision was a bit surprising though considering how well $NVDA LTAs turned out well for $LITE / $COHR. I would assume though AOI gets more pricing leverage as time goes on due to current laser/transceiver shortages.

$NVDA, following their $20B deal... Announces Groq3 LPX now in full production. With $NBIS the first to adopt through Nebius token factory. - 3,400 tok/s in Artificial Analysis benchmarking running Gemma 4 31B, with 100k token context - 4x faster responsiveness than the nearest alternative Thing that caught my attention.. was a former press release after Nvidia's $2B investment into Nebius. That it would support their "early adoption of Nvidia's latest generation" architectures. Guess we're seeing that special treatment here.

$XPEV carves out its robotics unit and raises >$900M at $6.3B+ valuations. This is following’s Unitree IPO, which now has a ~$35-$36B MC. Then there’s $NVDA / $AMZN backed Agility… at a $2.5B premoney valuation. Which I’d argue is actually further ahead in commercialization than Xpeng. Regardless, humanoids + physical AI sector funding is really taking off.

Lot of misinterpretations flying left and right around the $600m ATM. I'm still bullish on $AAOI and I have large positions (which is why I care more). What I've been consistent with is not being a fan of overusing ATMs/dilution for financing. I've said this before with $IREN + $POET. And I'll be consistent with my own positions like AOI. However, the reason I'm still overweight on AOI vs. the rest (looking at you Poet): Is that AOI is actually capacity constrained with high demand visibility. In terms of timing: - AOI should have waited until completion of 1.6T qualifications (expected in the next few weeks) - Could have used other structures like convertible notes above market prices. But they did it on the drop from $220 -> $130, and it's likely there will be short term structural overhang whenever they want to tap into it. I don't have to support every single business decision to remain long.

After watching clips of China's humanoid Olympics... I think we're cooked chat. Still can't believe $GOOGL sold Boston Dynamics, don't think we have another humanoid that can backflip.

Having a mid-X identity crisis rn: ✓ saw 2025 ideas from $AXTI to $NBIS play out with everyone ✓ we got $AMD bandanas ✓ #1 most subscribed person on X by accident ✓ Chinese “White Hair” nicknames ✓ 1M followers Still here to track ideas, but what’s the next side quest?

@wannabepanacea I’m expecting a Rosenblatt analyst to ask Marvel about their Spider-Man box office sales revenue vs. networking growth.

Apparently, $RDDT thinks $MRVL had two major catalysts recently: The $12.2B Google TPU ecosystem agreement. And… Spider-Man: “Brand New Day”

@OscarCantInvest I still have $AAOI positions but I can dislike financing methods/timing/amounts.

It's been fun to read these US Gov fact sheets (few a week) recently. Earlier this week was "Golden Age of Space Transportation", with $SPCX hard carrying the launch sector like Faker. And $RKLB + other rocket companies as beneficiaries of the 1K launch/reentry goal by 2030. This month we also had: - Drone component tariffs - American Mining / Critical Mineral deals - Polysilicon supply chains tariffs and a lot more... So helpful to see what sectors US policy is focusing on.