Serenity @aleabitoreddit

@ontrialperiod when global and US markets crash off misinformation and out of context quotes from $META. I probably want to clear that up? That thing said, $AAOI, $SIVE, and $CCXI do make up large concentration in my portfolio.

SemiAnalysis on $META “overcapacity” and market reactions with $NBIS and others: “We believe Meta’s datacenter and compute will accelerate”. “Capex in 2027 will be shockingly high”. Recent global crash, especially in the photonics sector was stupid… Off misleading narratives of Meta dropping out of AI race to sell excess compute… When in fact things are likely to accelerate from Meta catching up to GPT5.5. I’m personally expecting a sharp V recovery, especially with the names that crashed 50%+ from this narrative.

LeaderDrive (688017) is now at all time highs after hitting a 20% limit up today. Looks like robotics sector excitement is palpable… Largely driven by US and China’s frontier humanoid companies with $CCXI / Agility Robotics As well as Unitree (STAR listing approved today) both going public.

Lot of misinformation recently about $META. Recently major journals have been stating “AI AGENT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST FOUR MONTHS HASN'T 'ACCELERATED IN THE WAY WE EXPECTED” To push some narrative about Meta dropping out of the race or lowered capex: As Wang clarified: Zuckerberg was talking about the industry as a whole.

@navborgen But market narratives were saying Meta would drop out of the AI race, stop capex, and sell excess compute!! Can’t believe that caused everything to crash.

$META: upcoming AI model “Watermelon” has caught up to OpenAI’s GPT 5.5. Wang noted it uses an "order of magnitude" more compute than its predecessor “Avocado”. Who said they were out of the AI race again?

$AXTI signs 3-year wafer deal with $COHR. "Coherent will make a prepayment of $22,288,500 to AXT-Tongmei in exchange for a committed supply capacity."

Does anyone else have this annoying seed planted in their mind too? Whenever I see $MRVL drop, I get reminded of Jensen’s comment “The next $1T company”.

Just this hour: BlueCrest Capital Management and its Billionaire Michael Platt crossed the threshold and disclosed a 5.6% stake in $CCXI. I knew Agility Robotics would be popular… https://t.co/n7bqpmCykd https://t.co/MycGe1we9A

Always a fun time seeing semi markets crash from Bloomberg report framing once again… UBS analyst on $META report: “this is not new news”. Regardless: $AEHR down -18.3% $AAOI down -17.13% $SIVEF down -15.4% $SNDK down -14.8% $TER down -13.8% $GLW down -11.4% $MRVL down -11.2% $LITE down -10.2% $NBIS down -7.8% Getting PTSD from Bloombert’s previous misleading report on AMD/Nvidia global export controls earlier this year that crashed semi stocks. FYI: Meta doesn’t randomly buy $48B+ worth of neocoud contracts if they overbuilt capacity and can cut capex… Markets are stupid sometimes.

@SUOHA_AI I remember first investing in $RKLB back at $15 or so. It just find it rare to get exposure to a downstream + frontier sector leader. So I’m personally not missing this chance again with $CCXI.

Recent US IPO models have been very stupid like $SPCX / $CBRS hiking valuations to absurd numbers before going public. More US listings should follow Unitree (which would likely command higher valuations) + China's IPOs like Lightelligence. That allow retail access at the same valuations as private investors + access to these companies before they grow... So glad $CCXI is doing the same. Also, maybe they see more momentum if they start out at lower valuations.

What's this PTSD about SPACs? I only care about the company fundamentals. $NVDA, Softbank, $AMZN and others don't just back some random crapco. And Foxconn is funding the PIPE. It's just for faster listing, especially giving US investors alternatives to the extremely anticipated up Unitree IPO coming out around the same timeframe.

Agility Robotics is literally the #1 humanoid player in the US in terms of commercialization today imo. Personal Rankings: 1. Agility Robotics via $CCXI 2. $TSLA Optimus ($1T+ company) 3. Figure at $39B from 2025, likely higher now. With Tesla likely taking the lead a year from now. So at $16, you have a ~$4B MC pre-money humanoid player. Which is already inside $AMZN and $MELI (ideal use cases to start out, before step-functioning to general-use), with $AMZN, $NVDA, Softbank, Foxconn, and others as investors. NFA, but at those valuations... there's direct exposure for the first ever humanoid player today, that's likely further ahead than Figure for commercialization. No hard feelings about Robostrategy, but it's over 4x+ NAV: Which would value Figure at $156B... While there's the #1 commercialized humanoid player with Agility at $4B today. So my personal preference is $CCXI.

Yes? Increasing your entire revenue pipeline by 77% in a single quarter is extremely good numbers. Majority of it was photonics growth from InP lasers. Sivers earnings were stellar if you look at forward growth. Valuations are based on future earnings, not trailing 12 months on NRE and pre-production contracts.

After $AXTI went from $13 to $140, somewhere along the way up they had a massive float expansion along with dilution. Which it got approved, so as I mentioned before, I wasn't as comfortable talking about it if there's excessive dilution on retail investors. But I do think it's undervalued if they weaponize price hikes like $SNDK.

Are you stupid? 1. $JBL mass producing 1.6T LRO is revenue. 2 O-Net mass producing ELS is revenue. 3. $GFS using $SIVE as reference laser for the hyperscalers is revenue. 4. Ayar joining $NVDA NVLink for CPO and using $SIVE for mass production is revenue. 5. Other pluggable players, potentially Eoptolink/Innolight mass producing pluggables with $SIVE as lasers is revenue. 6. $POET entering volume production is revenue.

Nobody should care about TA charts since people just made up squiggly lines trying to convince others to sell. $SIVE just raised an emergency $70M for mass production likely for allocation from fabs. With $JBL, $POET, $AEVA, and others volume ramping near term. Then $GFS, Ayar, and many other players are volume ramping later in 2027. Sivers also confirmed intent to complete NASDAQ Listing in the next few quarters. It's probably my highest conviction photonics long, everything seems to be coming into place.

@ram_blings NP, I'm not sure if people remember this but $SIVE went up +70% in a day off $GFS news. And $AAOI has random +20-30% days. They're also capable of doing the opposite. Photonics sector are very volatile, but directionally they follow fundamentals in the long run.

Photonics is backed by actual revenue numbers and it's an architectural shift championed by $NVDA. Quantum barely has any revenue. $LITE is completely sold out for the next 2 years (per $POET AGM) likely starting into 2029. Lumentum is so strained that they buy CW lasers off competitors (earnings transcript) $COHR is bottlenecked, so they buy EML off Lumentum. Then, $AAOI is coming in with Made-in-America independent CW capacity, are projecting $1.4B/quarterly revenue ending H1 2027 of a stupid $9.3B MC today. So all the CW capacity from independent players who have it now like $AAOI or $SIVE are likely to become scarce resources. Many other hyperscalers have already started LTA discussions (per Trendforce). And players like $AMD are currently talking with players such as $AAOI (Rosenblatt channel checks). Thematically, next 2 years is 9x TAM to US$154B per GS reports, especially with 16x/45x dollar content increase in scale out/scale up. Then there's the overall thematic AI drop from $META, which is widely misunderstood because people conflate what "excess capacity" means. And as UBS mentioned, Meta planning a cloud offering is NOT NEW NEWS. Bloomberg just has a tendency to publish information that causes doom drops across the semi sector like Nvidia export controls a few months back. But I'm familiar with what I'm holding so I'm confident in these numbers playing out. Especially when all the major players are sold out, the fundamentals catch up eventually.

Names like LeaderDrive are at all time highs? Depends on the company of course. Liquidity works a little differently in America, usually focuses on downstream frontier industries like space, robotics, AI, and such. If we look at $RKLB for space as one example that has premiums relative to revenue.

I’m personally long $CCXI and have highest concentration in Agility Robotics (NFA). It’s currently around a ~$4.9B valuation. Figure’s last round was $39B last year, and that was before the increasing interest in humanoids/robotics this year. Then a large part of $TSLA $1T+ valuations come from humanoids. I like companies like LeaderDrive… but usually the downstream players capture the most value in the end. And I find it rare to see one that has public exposure early on.

I just realized Boston Dynamics CEO shared the same sentiment: “Robotics is next. America’s next 250 years will be built by robots”. However, currently China accounts for 54%+ of all global robotics deployments. - calls for Internet scaleable database of physical world (kinda got reminded of Niantic that has a huge dataset from Pokemon Go) - dedicated National robotics strategy to compete against China’s leadership in this space - ISO + regulation for robotics safety This is all high level: But my prioritize thought process is how do we support and scale a Made in USA supply chain for robotics/humanoids? I’ve been hammering home rare earths for the longest time, that the US isn’t doing enough to subsidize or scale this industry. But another thing to take note is subsidies for components, forcing $TSLA and others to use Chinese suppliers over Western ones, even if assembly is done in USA… to keep costs down. Which is why I’ve liked Agility Robotics $CCXI since they source 75% of parts from the US, despite higher BOM to start out with. Regardless it’s pretty clear this Robotics is coming and becoming a national security priority: From the days of backflipping humanoid YT videos.

@mazo7846 I actually think $IREN has potential after their Mirantis acquisition + capacity they have. It’s just the way they do things with ATMs and excessive SBCs makes it hard to be bullish on just from financing structures.

@KlNKLAADZE My opinion is that CEOs should keep the equity they have and work toward making that appreciate in value. Like what $RKLB founder does. Rather than relying on large compensation grants.