Serenity @aleabitoreddit

This was disclosed wafer capacity from their foundry partners back in 2024. Maybe one of the US players got added. I’m not a fan of Sivers switching to hybrid manufacturing at this stage though (think it targeted 1/3rd of capacity). But I do agree it’s needed to be vertically integrated like $AAOI or $LITE.

Mix of algorithms, short sellers, dozens of repurposed/dormant accounts dedicated toward spreading negative news about $SIVE Hard to believe accounts used for marketing during 2016 Asian ICOs or new X accounts would just start posting 50 negative comments only about Sivers. Regardless of near term volatility these things cause, fundamentals will catch up. The materially bearish thing I see is implications of increased capex spend from going to a hybrid manufacturing model from fablite (but it’s inevitable in the long run) I haven’t really seen much people comment on that

Here's the angle I'm looking at $SIVE at: Companies/CSPs have been going out of their way way to lock up any qualified CW laser capacity for optical transceivers. So now, Sivers is coming into the industry with: - Large capacity from Win Semi - "tremendous capacity that is available now" from a new foundry (likely qualifications since 2024) since it's engaged "for a while" And what excited me from this earnings was the "6 pluggable/module" engagements (which is an enormous amount). The nuance I'm reading is: - $COHR said it sees no near term ability to sell InP lasers externally because internal transceiver demand consumes all available - $AAOI said the same about consuming laser capacity internally (wasn't a major merchant supplier before though). - $LITE has been bottlenecked and been buying lasers off the open market Your previous merchant players rerouted laser capacity internally. So a lot of the bigger names (eg. Eoptolink/Innolight as just a random example) are probably looking to source more lasers. And that kinda matches the quote "capable of very rapid qualification and ramp" (which would not match Series B startup)... Lot of people are asking why aren't there LTAs to 2030 then? -> You can't just randomly escape the qualification process that established players have already completed. Why aren't the customers disclosed? And as seen with the $MRVL + $POET engagement, you can't just disclose the vendors you're working with. But the "$1.2B opportunity pipeline" almost doubled relative to the jump of $JBL + $GFS. So it's signals that the new pluggable engagements might be pretty substantial relative to Jabil. So if $SIVE comes along with enormous amounts of CW DFB laser capacity during a supply shortage... The industry conditions have changed in a major way that increases conversion rates of engagements. And with the sheer size from all your ~est. customers jabil, globalfoundries, poet, aeva, lightium, ayar, (maybe lightmatter, celestial, lightelligence), 6 other pluggable players, and others. I think Sivers is going to cook after connecting the dots.

Lot of critiques are from people who don’t understand how to evaluate qualification cycle semi players. Got the same thing with $AAOI back at $30 or $AEHR at $30. Goes to show when people look hard into development contract revenues, one-off accounting charges, rather than how hyperscaler supplier qualification timelines are going

Nah, $SIVE is the most unusual $1B photonics company I've ever seen. Just for AI DCs alone: - Reference laser for $GFS SCALE (CPO/NPO/pluggable) - 7 pluggable engagements disclosed, with $JBL as primary ramp (with H1 2027 timeline) - ELS path with O-Net - ELS path with $POET - Lasers to Ayar for CPO I/O (now in $NVDA nvlink ecosystem) - Lasers for $AEVA (which now has NPO agreements with optical engine providers for hyperscalers) - Celestial/Lightmatter/Lightelligence (likely customers in 2023/2024) - InP lasers on TFLN with Lightium Then it has 2 substantial allocations for CW DFB laser capacity during an industry shortage. As well as one of the few CPO-grade laser suppliers out in the industry. Let me know what other player around this range has so many ongoing qualifications, a large TAM, and in photonics. $SIVE is the #1 for me in terms of MC relative to qualifications paths across the industry.

I've never seen someone say new "tremendous capacity allocation for Sivers" for laser supply... "available now" during a bottleneck. And a disclosure working with 6 new pluggable manufacturers beyond $JBL (so 7). "was awful". Think majority of people like yourself just misunderstand evaluating qualification cycle players.

You're conflating custom products with regular timelines (eg. pluggable players). And this makes sense when you look at their post about Lightmatter, Lightelligence, and Celestial back in 2023-2024 (where these players take off 2028) For the pluggable players they mentioned "some can achieve" very rapid qualification and ramp" likely in 2027.

Massive CW laser bottleneck ongoing. -> 2 foundries (Win + another major player) with substantial capacity for $SIVE -> $JBL clear ramp timing - 6 new pluggable players in eval/later stage disc for near term opportunities -> $GFS, Ayar, $POET, (potentially Celestial + other CPO players). -> not even including the other work they do with TFLN and others. I'm very positive fundamentally after this.

Yeah, usually new foundry qualifications might take a lot of time if they started now... But they said tremendous capacity is "available now" for CW DFB laser production. Which is amazing news given CW laser shortages. Just to support that too, management was asked if Sivers could sell lasers right away using the new partner capacity. The CEO said yes, that they have been working with the partner "for a while."

$SIVE ER transcript just dropped, TLDR: - 6 NEW pluggable players working with Sivers now. Probably the biggest news of the entire ER next to new foundry allocations. "3 are in alpha sample evaluation stage" and another 3 in technical engagement / supply assessment stage." And now it makes more sense why their $1.2B revenue pipeline ballooned (since this was a bigger leap than Jabil). - Initial production orders with $JBL expected in the first half of 2027, with the production ramp planned second half of 2027 LFG, Jabil is a massive hyperscaler supplier and finally got clear timelines on revenue from volume ramp. - "new foundry partner who has brought on tremendous capacity that is available now" This is what I wanted to hear. Apparently they've been in the works for this for awhile since it's "available now", and THIS IS VERY MATERIAL. CW lasers are in a massive shortage and $SIVE brought on new supply outside of Win Semi (also de-risks). As you hear with other qualified CW players (anything they make gets sold), so as Sivers partners finishes their qualifications, I'm expecting the same. - "long-term capacity model where one-third of manufacturing capacity will be internal, while two-thirds will come from our foundry partners" Lukewarm on this, it makes sense they need to be vertically integrated like $AAOI / $LITE eventually but implies more capex (better after NASDAQ listing). As you see with ESMT + DDR2 bottlenecks, the operating income they get from just securing wafers during shortages and doing fabless models is incredible. And it would make more sense to fund this with cashflow down the road. - NASDAQ listing ongoing. CFO gave a very lawyer like answer, but on track as usual. - "We do not see production capacity as a bottleneck at this point in time" This is very meaningful since with their new foundry partners, implies $SIVE is coming online with a very material CW laser supply to a bottlenecked market. TLDR: - NEW substantial FOUNDRY ALLOCATION! (very, very material during CW laser shortage) - 6 new pluggable players outside of $JBL - Clear revenue ramp timelines from Jabil Heavy focus on pluggables -> NPO -> CPO seems like the progression. Only lukewarm piece was building up internal capacity but it's long term positive. Anyway, very happy after reading the transcript aside from potential capex prioritizing laser capacity (which is fine too during an industry shortage) over IP acquisition. The 6 new pluggable players + substantial wafer allocation "available now" is a pretty insane disclosure.

$GFS has $SIVE as their reference laser design and showcased them as a laser supplier for CPO/NPO/pluggables for GFS scale. Ayar (leading CPO player) has $SIVE listed as their primary laser supplier. Again all these newer 1.6T and CPO (scale up) architectures ramp in 2027/2028, it's hard to provide concrete volume contracts/projections if players like $JBL haven't qualification with their hyperscaler customers.

@Ingeltun Maybe because $NVDA is a $5+ trillion dollar company. And then you're comparing that to a qualification stage $1B photonics company where all their ramps happen 2027/2028.

KPI has always been the consistent. It's just an indicator of how things would ramp. Main thing analysts look at are their hyperscaler suppliers like $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, and other pluggable/CPO partners. And how their programs scale, with $SIVE sitting upstream. Rather than trying to argue with what opportunity pipelines mean.

@CryptoVandelay $SIVE primary exchange is closed. An OTC market is extremely thin and a small sell order can trigger a large % move.

It's slightly different since $LPK revenue has likely been delayed given industry GCS delays with Samsung Electro-mechanics/SKC Absolics $SIVE is the laser supplier to $JBL 1.6T LRO, Ayar for CPO, and others. There's been no credible delays to 1.6T/CPO, it's just waiting for their qualifications to finish before volume contracts flow. Those architectures are 2027-2028.

Pipeline grew to $1.2B from $799m from $400m in less than a year, not quite sure how someone expects more. The revenue quality is different than others, since $SIVE was 55-60% long term gross margins est. off InP lasers. It's not the same as 30% transceiver margins (with more revenue). Also you can't suddenly escape qualification cycles and sell out to 2030, especially when they're targeting newer architectures for scale up in H2 2027

@Finishurbkfst23 Because they're qualification stage. Same thing with $AAOI or $AEHR before their volume inflections. It's just understanding semi ramp cycles from development -> qualification -> volume ramp.

$SIVE earnings just got released: $1.2 billion revenue opportunity pipeline growth up 268% from December (incredible growth). Last ER: $799M (this was a surprise, likely linked to Jabil) July 2026: ~$1.2B (hinting more either more customer engagements than what's announced or larger volume ramps within programs). "Sivers continued to reallocate resources from NRE projects toward product ramp preparation. Sivers expects the impact of this transition to become visible in Q4 2026 and accelerate through 2027 as multiple programs progress toward volume production." Makes sense on timelines. Current financials reflect a qualification-stage player before volume ramp: - $5.64M in revenue (reducing NRE activity, shifting to volume ramps soon) -$3.72M in adjusted EBITDA (what to look at given one-off charges, eg. social security accounting expense) Key thing to look at is earnings call in 30 minutes, very excited so far.

Winbond is actually withdrawing from DDR2 to focus on DDR4/DDR3 and said they expect 2027 to be even tighter. They're beginning capacity discussions for 2029-2030 + moving toward higher end, so don't quite see them having much to allocate toward older lines again. As for other players moving toward older lines, qualification takes a lot of time... and there's just very low incentive to. I looked for foundry dependence, PSMC is Taiwanese, so all good geopolitically. As for wafer allocations, if I had to put my supply chain hat resiliency hat on, if ESMT stopped supplying DDR2, it would just be absolute destruction downstream, so don't see that scenario (since they're probably the world's largest merchant supplier for this line if Winbond exits) So don't quite think it would happen... but if they get less wafer allocations, the ASP just gets hiked even more, so earnings would likely remain strong.

I've always been bullish on memory with $MU / Samsung / $SKHY for the 2026-2027 period. Same opinion, even after $NVDA call. And I've been fervently defending how high end memory demand is structural + OP for operating income (especially during Iran tensions around LNG/Helium). Nvidia earnings just reaffirms what we know about extreme demand since commitments went from $119B -> $279B largely driven by memory procurement. Nvidia's CFO also said: "We are experiencing extreme pricing conditions in memory." As for what I've done, H1 2026 I was extremely overweight in memory: With $MU, $SNDK, Phison, $SIMO, Nanya, Macronix, Winbond, and $EWY / SK Hynix (HBM/DRAM + NAND + legacy DRAM/NAND + controllers + NOR Flash). I trimmed down those positions aside from Samsung/SK Hynix longs, since I do believe many have been rerated (eg. Micron $300 -> $1000+ already). I think the largest price discovery period has played out, but just a waiting game for the operating income to catch up (esp u samsung) And I used that period to go overweight on photonics. But I do believe we're seeing a relatively newer cascade down into the "legacy legacy" memory like DDR2/DDR3 with the "legacy" players like Winbond leaving some of those segments. Where the price hikes finally hit the 40-60% Q/Q mark, which reminds me of the extreme $SNDK days, across DDR2/DDR3. Which is why I started up positions in ESMT (1.9x P/E from July annualized) and Etron. Maybe we'll see a price discovery moment further down the legacy memory stack (could be wrong), but that's the area I've focused on recently.

I wanted exposure to DDR2/DDR3 bottleneck ongoing and found ESMT (3006). A $2.5B MC fabless company with PSMC wafer allocation (esp. focused on DDR2). Last month's net income was: $109.5M (July month), which annualized is $1.31B net profit (1.9x runrate P/E). If we look at net profit throughout the months tracking legacy DRAM price hikes: Jan 2026: ~$16M (est) Feb 2026: ~$17M Mar 2026: ~$31M (est) April 2026: ~$58M May 2026: ~$60M (est) June 2026: ~$67M (est) Jul 2026: ~$110M (Estimated months are inferred from reported quarterly totals. July is company reported) This earnings progression reminds me of $SNDK style price hikes + earnings inflection (esp. the report released this month). And I do expect DDR2/DDR3 capacity to remain constrained throughout 2027 (with legacy players like Winbond withdrawing from certain lines too like DDR2). It's not quite all inventory liquidation like the other peers. Sure lower cost inventory helped, but the primary driver seems to be the widening spread between wafer costs/supply and legacy dram ASPs? Their balance sheet is extremely solid as well: - Cash on hand: ~$395.9M net cash - $249.6M inventory, $146.3M receivables And the net income progression... is before further legacy DRAM hikes expected in Q3. *disclosure own positions, NFA It's always a bit daunting being early without much commentary around the idea. Wondering if anyone can stress test this thesis? Since a company that grew monthly net income from $16M -> $100m this year alone (July Annualized would be 1.9x P/E). And benefits from another projected wave of DDR2/DDR3 hikes this quarter... maybe like 35-40% for DDR2 lines per Trendforce, and DDR3 likely continuing to rise. Do markets just not know about this bottleneck/company or am I missing something from my research?

@JonahLupton $NVDA stated demand is much greater than 70%. It's just that their capacity allows them to deliver 70% revenue growth, which is absurd.

@Yolo365247isme Yeah I'm genuinely shocked at those projections, it's like ~$103B revenue beat above consensus lol. $NVDA is just printing, holy.

$NVDA: "We expect to grow revenue by approximately 70% in fiscal 2028. This is a supply constrained outlook" That statement alone is probably more important than the entire earnings beat just now? Insane upward revision beat from +43.9% expected to 70%. "With cloud industry backlog now greater than 2 trillion, CapEx by the top five hyperscalers is expected to reach nearly $800 Billion in 2026 and 1.3 Trillion in 2027" $1.3 Trillion in 2027. (MS was around $1.2T June, so this is upward projection revisions) Yeah the high-beta parts of the supply chain growth is going to like this.

$NVDA earnings TLDR: Revenue: $96.22B vs. ~$92.17B (beat) Adj. EPS: $2.22 vs. $2.09-$2.10 (beat) DC: $89.0B vs. ~$86.3B (beat) Adj. gross margin: 75% vs. 75% Hyperscaler Revenue: $48.71B from $43.05B last quarter (custom ASIC growth hasn't really prevented this revenue from accelerating) For guidance: Revenue: $108B vs. ~$104.2B Adj. gross margin: 74% vs. 75% (kinda the only soft spot) Revenue ramp has been genuinely absurd over last 4 quarters. -> $68.1B -> $81.6B -> $96.2B (we are here) -> next quarter guidance: $108B, despite assuming zero China DC compute revenue. Fun thing to note is Nvidia says its commitments jumped from $119B last quarter to $279B, primarily related to procurement of memory (for next few years).. So memory goes brrr. TLDR: AI keeps on going brrr. Nvidia is clearly leading the charge and no obvious signs of demand slowing. Given Nvidia is already a $5T+ company, I think most of the alpha comes from how Nvidia's architecture/capacity decisions impact elsewhere in the supply chain (eg. CPO, memory, 800V) nowadays. Rather than simply finding mispricing in Nvidia itself. Regardless, all the fun stuff happens in the earnings call in a few min.