Serenity @aleabitoreddit

“What matters is not the eggs, it is the Goose itself” SoftBank probably down -13.5% today after markets saw this investor presentation today. Also the OpenAI IPO possible 2027 delay cause Altman wanted a $1T valuation might have been a small cause…

@pugzoo1 Yeah Bitcoin/Ethereum is like the canary in the coal mine.

There's a global correction right now, no clue when it stops. Kospi is down -8.18% (Sk hynix/Samsung) Nikkei is down -4.8% TWSE Index is down -3.82% As you've seen with $SOI or $RKLB dropping 30-40%. From personal experience, high beta stocks get hit a lot harder, but usually frontrun index drops. And they typically recover earlier? Aside from Korea which is typically volatile, when major indexes start correcting 3-4% a day, usually not a fun time.

FYI, I posted ideas about $AXTI at $15, $AAOI at $30, $TSEM at $115, $LITE $300, $MU $300, $SNDK $400, $EWY $110, $SIVE $4. $IQE $13, $SOI $44 and so on. So when they finally have a massive correction due to macro drop the ideas are wrong? And most are still up a few hundred percent. TW CPO names are just really early and I’m down a lot on those but I expect them to recover in due time.

@beauty_oe Nice! Ill check out the specs now for $JBL + $SIVE

@chenbaiyang70 Looks like photonics theme selloff combined with macro drop with $AAOI. I’m personally confident from $AMD CW LTA reports and next year’s $471M/month projections. But of course people should make their own decisions, optical names tend to be more volatile.

Looks like Power Semis are already starting price hikes. Which is bullish thematically for US power semi trade from $AOSL to $POWI, before the 800V DC shift fully hits. China's Yangjie Technology, announced a 2nd price increase this year, raising prices across its full product range by 10%-15%, July 1. Chongqing China Resources Micro, Silan Microelectronics, and NCE Power also price hiked. “Demand is playing a larger role than costs in the latest round of price increases” from AI DCs, to energy systems, and new EVs. Another potential beneficiary is the upstream material companies that make these: - nonferrous metals like copper and tin. -Plastic molding compounds - chemicals, and packaging consumables “Nearly all major Chinese power semiconductor makers have raised prices in 2026.” (Digitimes) So positive read through on power semi adjacent (reduce China-driven price pressure + better pricing + demand validation)

Nah, gonna fill out the job application for $WEN and set up camp behind the dumpsters. Even $MU and $SNDK ridiculous performance today couldn't save my port. Cheering on Japan though, hoping Sweden gets mogged with a 2-0 to represent the 20% drop. https://t.co/wihxMVvCLw

@hobielandrith I posted about $AAOI at $2.1B MC when someone called photonics "late". Then at $5.3B after earnings. Then $11B now. Unless their projections are wrong, doing $5.4B annual revenue ($471m/m) as a photonics company probably commands higher valuations.

@dpkim19 Quote from $SIVE earnings transcript: "50% to 60%+ gross margins once we are firmly and predominantly product revenue driven."

@aa11231ggagaa44 Do you mean InP fab? I'm not sure why people are trying to compare InP fabs, $SIVE is not mass producing lasers in-house. They're using Win Semi and foundries, Sivers is a fabless designer so they don't need capex. They do have a fab for development.

oh i think u misunderstand... I'm actually more bullish than ever as prices go down. $SIVE at ~$1.9B MC you have: - $GFS reference laser - laser for Ayar and others in $NVDA NVLink ecosystem for CPO scale up - $POET and others for CPO scale out - $JBL and others for 1.6T+ pluggable optical transcivers - O-Net for ELS mass production So you have all these hyperscaler suppliers trying to create as much as possible with Sivers as the laser bottleneck... And it's just a matter of how much Win Semi + others partners can make, with $SIVE receiving ~60% gross margins + optionality to TAM expand downward. The 15% recent share expansion that Swedish media have been bearposting is for NASDAQ listing float + M&A (and it's authorization). You just have potential short sellers running illegal bot farms, Swedish media bearposting a company Swedish exchange, on top of a general macro drop. The ~$140M convertible note is real, but it's pennies to US institutions. We'll likely see more institutional ownership when data comes out. But this is also why it's good for $SIVE to prioritize NASDAQ listing so they don't need to deal with this noise and local media. With $AAOI at $10B, you have: - A end-to-end US laser/design/assembly player projecting $471m month revenue H1 entering H2 2027. - With other hyperscalers like $AMD apparently discussing LTAs. And they probably are sitting on a ton of cash after running ~$1.4B in ATMs (400M + 400m+ 600m). Kinda all that needs to be said with those insane revenue projections as long as management doesn't BS. This just reminds me of when $NBIS crashed to $70 last year even while projecting $7-9B ARR, and as timelines got closer it recovered to $250+. Feels like dejavu. I'm just waiting for both volume ramps to hit. Photonics are generally more volatile than the rest.

@CryptoBankz_65 $NBIS has anime protagonist armor and an OpenAI hedge fund guy diamond handing the stock.

@RJCcapital Bruh $SIVE is $GFS reference laser, $JBL 1.6T pluggable laser, Ayar CPO scale up laser, $POET scale out laser, O-Net ELS laser. And many other undisclosed partnerships. Watch and learn.

@NieMehrKrieg Of course, $SIVE is my favorite optical name right now. However, having negative macro news compounded with photonics theme selloff. Especially on a Swedish exchange, certainly doesn’t help.

@firstadopter Yep, I lost a sht ton recently and makes me sad if others did too. Always hard to build a port full of $SNDK type longs that go up despite macro climates.

Feels like the only thing that hasn’t crashed… Is memory like $MU, indexes, or large cap semis like Intel so far. - Photonics from $AXTI to $SIVE down 40%. - Space from $ASTS and $RKLB down 40% 1M. - Popular AI names like $PLTR is down ~35% YTD. - Software like $CRM down -40%. - Bitcoin sub <60k, Ethereum sub <$16k. Not a fun time with a hawkish fed narrative and potential rate hikes. However this does sorta feel overshot due to margin liquidations on less liquid assets compared to mega caps. But we’ll see what happens, usually fundamentals override liquidity shock in the longer run. I’m still personally bullish on the AI buildout + upstream AI capex beneficiaries, but 1-2 potential rate hikes certainly don’t help.

The $WEN meme traders made it to Global Media from Japan to US! The burger fast food chain is now up ~50%, which is pretty impressive. Feels bad to be sidelined and see my AI memory/optical portfolio perform worse than a $RDDT memestock tho. Did anyone take positions? https://t.co/hM0RhWh21c https://t.co/bmxwlDDxMX

Very interesting statement today: $MU CEO predicts a multi-decade memory demand cycle driven by humanoid robots. "Humanoid robots, he says, will require roughly ten times more memory than today’s Level 2+ autonomous vehicles." "And that demand wave is set to begin before the decade is out." Something as well as was "Over time, we expect the value of on-device AI combined with pent-up unit replacement demand to drive memory demand growth" Which is also another trend (Apple Intelligence is currently dog, but I'm sure we'll see innovations with localized/edge AI). Feels like all the industry leaders from $TSM Chairman, $TSLA Elon Musk, to $MU CEO see humanoids as the next major trend so physical AI is probably next. I wonder if the world is going to have enough memory. Or if we'll see enough breakthroughs to shrink memory usage.

Think so. But in the meantime, I call my strategy: Diversified Losses. With $AXTI, $SOI, $AAOI, and many others. Had a massive drawdown recently, CPO exposure was hit the hardest (Foci, Msscorp, etc) and adjacent names, feels bad. Probably lesson personally, I had too much concentration in photonics vs. memory/other sectors without weighting/hedging properly. With Soitec, there's been a few negative institutional reports that I'd disagree with. Think AXT was hit harder in specific just because of float expansion/dilution concerns. AAOI, probably just brought down with the theme. I can't give advice on buying, so completely up to you to make for cost averaging or entering positions. But I do think we're still early in the Supercycle with photonics, there's bound to be corrections/crashes along the way up. If my personal thesis is correct though, many of these names will have a major inflection point in midway through 2027 scaling up to 2028. Markets don't typically wait to price things in advance, but some ideas might be a tad early or in the buildout given it's H2 2026 now. Which is why it's important to build your own conviction.

@AliTava2020 $DRAM is one of the more positive ETFs I have a view on since it's exposure to SK Hynix, Samsung, $MU, and $SNDK. Which is everything people kinda want for memory exposure.

I mean if $BABA Qwen marketshare increases from distilling Anthropic models effectively. Rewards outweigh the risks because there's been no penalties (which is why they're doing this). Lot of US AI startups have been using Qwen lately cause of how cost effective it is vs. Gemini and others... But so far optically, no getting caught is bearish. Not sure why more things aren't done on the US side enforcing penalties for this though.

Today, Anthropic has directly accused the $BABA Qwen AI lab of distilling its frontier AI models. By creating thousands of fake accounts and over 28.8 million exchanges. Feels like this is kind of known by now... but there's been no real penalties enforced yet. We'll see what happens.

@mindmoon_108 @Akaletiko Eh, maybe other way around where $TSM sees what memory players are doing and starts price hiking too.

@Zenctwill $MU earnings are probably a good read through on SK Hynix/Samsung, which is majority of KOSPI weighting (passively too). So seems more likely than not for SK index. It’s also a positive read through on AI demand, which is why $LITE, $AAOI, and others jumped a tiny bit AH.