Serenity @aleabitoreddit

Trump announced Intel + Apple partnership, sending $INTC up 8% today. Intel execs were reportedly surprised by the $AAPL announcement by Donald Trump. TBH, the President should lead Intel's marketing team at this point. Feel's like he's hard carrying the stock.

Just a reminder: 99% of X was bearish on memory 3 months ago... Since then: $MU $380 -> $1122 (+195.26%) $SNDK $565 -> $2155 (+281.42%) $EWY $132 -> $219 (+65.91%) SK Hynix 849K -> 2.685M KRW (+215.5%) Samsung 172K -> 362K KRW (+110.7%) If you see a bunch of projections on memory names like Samsung becoming the most profitable company in the world in 2028. Might be a good idea to think independently outside of the narratives at the time like "Oil, LNG, Helium, Iran, etc." Probably same thing now with optical names and their projections into 2027, 2028. I do think photonics and memory are the 2 top themes though, with optics being very early into the supercycle.

I think Jim Cramer’s law needs to be studied in history books. Even $SPCX can’t withstand his blessing. https://t.co/8Hr7898NmA https://t.co/xGiAOImQXE

非常感谢中文社区对我最看好股票的投资思路进行的深度剖析！ 总的来说，像 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 这样的激光公司是我个人的最爱，因为它们在拓展营收方面有着极大的想象空间。它们可以不仅仅局限于销售激光器，还能制造完整的光模块 以及各种光引擎或 ELS (外部光源) 组件。 又或者像 $COHR 那样，甚至可以向上游延伸进军衬底制造领域，从而实现垂直整合，并不断提升自身的毛利率和总潜在市场规模 TAM 这其中很大一部分的关键在于要率先精准踩中投资主线，毕竟去年很多人甚至都不觉得“光子学（photonics）”能成为一个真正的热门概念。 而且我认为最会让大多数人感到惊讶的是，我们目前仍处于极其早期的阶段。绝大多数的营收放量（爬坡）要到明年，也就是 2027 年的上半年乃至下半年才会真正开始！ 不过，能看到中文社区大家持续不断的支持，真的让我感觉非常棒。我会尽我所能，不辜负大家给我起的 “白毛股神” 这个称号。

$ALRIB general meeting notes came out today. -2nd ROSIE System expected to be delivered shortly to a leading quantum computing player” in the US. - They’re also intensifying BD for their products used for BTO/STO on photonics and recorded strong interest. Just for background, they’re the MBE duopoly with Veeco, which got re-rated heavily recently (Disclosure own Riber), with exposure to Quantum. Positive development overall.

@cryptogal928 $RDDT poll results would probably be: 40%: -$10k+ in credit card debt 30%: $0-100K 29.99%: $0 after 0DTE options went worthless .01%: $100k+

I agree with Palliser Capital here. As a shareholder, it’s just so stupid how WUS (2316 TW) MC can be ~$1B MC. While they own a 11.26% stake of WUS Kunshan, a $39.3B (¥282B CNY) company… Which is worth $4.42B pre-tax. Just sell 1/4th or something? And you get an extra ~$1.1B for PCB growth at the inflection point with AI demand. Which is more than your current MC pre-tax, purely in cash. And there’s still $3.3B in assets + markets might revalue your company because of willingness to trim locked up assets. Nobody is asking you to trim everything, but the NAV disconnect is insanity. WUS TW management should really reconsider.

Jim Cramer gave $SPCX his blessing. https://t.co/DSbyBt9f0D https://t.co/ScSuzUwL50

$AEHR receives follow up production order from major Silicon Photonics Customer for wafer level burn in systems. Now up 11.29% today to $116. Only 2 months ago it was in the $30's, good times. https://t.co/It24lVLmBe https://t.co/MhEQmNgAek

@Raccoononomics $JBL would be my pick if I had to choose one.

And 7 months later... $NBIS is all time highs. While $IREN bagholders are still funding the $6,000,000,000 ATM and stuck at the same price back in November. Guess this settles the debate? https://t.co/wYvbhw4xK3 https://t.co/1CKhfpy1BO

It's really important to add the context I added later if you're reposting this multiple times, but thanks for highlighting older ideas. With $XLU, in hindsight, was an extremely good idea for utilities. The thesis was: extreme demand from AI, capex, and rate cuts. Then Iran War unexpectedly happened, and I made statements that it threw a knife into the thesis. Since we went from 3-4 rate cut projected, down to 0, and even possibility of hikes. So I cut majority concentration, but still hold a tiny bit. Utilities trade was heavily dependent on rate cuts. It's important to stay up to date with current events, since thesis can change anytime, especially during macro black swan events.

Don’t think there’s any new news from $XFAB. Their company needs to do a better job with marketing materials though. Since nobody thinks they’re optical ai dc or power semi adjacent exposure apparently. However, I would have thought that since they’re leading Europe’s silicon photonics value chain efforts with PhotonixFab. And apparently everyone + EU are discussing sovereign AI supply chains after Fable’s export controls. One might think they’re a major beneficiary alongside IMEC, ligentec and others in the sovereign AI push? Anyway, markets can always disagree or maybe they didn’t link things together. Regardless, I’m just curious how this plays out. (Disclosure, own positions)

@ChenHW8899 I would personally long LeaderDrive (688017) if I were in China! Still really early on into robotics ramp, but I think they’ll be a clear winner given China’s lead in low cost, mass production robotics.

I mean... if i had to guess, $LPK did claim "80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment". Kinda clear glass substrates is the next packaging shift! From est. timelines, major players like Absolics is ramping H2 2026, Samsung Electro Mechanics 2027 + their partners. Then there's major shifts like TSM CoPoS 2028 (seems possible $LPK upstream exposure, unconfirmed). Just that claim of 80% is staggering and my personal expectation was markets might price it in eventually as they volume ramp (disclosure, own LPK). Don't think there needs to be any major news, probably just getting closer to HVM timelines.

Trendforce reports that $AMD is actively trying to secure CW laser supply with multiple major procurement orders... Is probably just the start of the bottleneck? There's not much independent capacity in Western supply chains left other than $SIVE or $AAOI and maybe Macom. Especially after Lumentum/Coherent got locked up with multi-year agreements with Nvidia. (disclosure, own Sive and aaoi) Lumentum is already CW laser constrained and is likely buying off Japanese companies like Sumitomo/Furukawa if I had to guess per ER, and those are probably running at max capacity. From the Trendforce report, this is: "to ensure that its future capacity will not be constrained by NVIDIA and other major Cloud Service Providers (CSPs)." I wouldn't be surprised if other hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, and others saw Nvidia / AMD signing LTAs, and are trying to secure capacity next. A lot of it is game theory on not getting choked out by competitors, and looks like AMD is tipping the first domino after Nvidia. But my opinion is that this just goes and show how invaluable this CW laser chokepoint is and the companies are inside it.

@00000sol0 True, headline difference: Serenity Research takes a stake in $SIVE, what a big deal! "Serenity" took a stake in $SIVE, must be a retail meme.

@0xara5h I said their $INTC $36 PT report was super troll back in Jan And Intel went up triple digits after that.

@soulbiri1 Northland and a few others publish decent reports. But Bernstein is just trolling at this point, I don’t even own Kioxia but these projections are dumb.

Bernstein is legit the dumbest analyst firm I’ve seen calling for a 50% crash in Kioxia. They gave $INTC a $36 PT back in Jan and now it’s $118. Good lesson to ignore institutional reports that get published for retail consumption. They’re not here to help retail investors. https://t.co/PI6EOX17EC

@AsianbeBlazin Yep, but there hasn’t been any much news with $AEHR. Not really heavily debated stock like $AAOI aside from one or two comments saying AEHR would go back down to $25.

I’m not sure why many folks are super bearish on my high conviction $AAOI long… Ever since $30, then on the way up to $170. (Yes I do think every bear is wrong, we’ll see who’s right). They have scarce laser capacity that $AMD and other hyperscalers are looking for. While the entire industry is bottlenecked by $NVDA. Along with a US transceiver supply chain for mass production of 800g/1.6T (management - largest in America). While demand far exceeds supply and while assembly gets outsourced to Asia. Then they’re quoting $471M monthly revenue in H1 entering H2 of 2027. Which is $5.6B ARR, off a $13.5B MC… While a lot of major inflection volume hits even later in 2028. As for fluctuations, there might be active $600M ATMs that get tapped into at random times. And random bear posts + macro from time to time that cause more volatility (eg. Analyst notes saying bear on $LITE due to false CPO delay rumors, then that brings down others in the sector). Also we’re a year out so timelines are still a little early. I haven’t seen such fast revenue ramp since $NBIS.

Mizuho Research: No delays on CPO or 800v dc. Revised up optical engine projections from $NVDA demand ramp. - Next phase in CPO for long term, believes InP DFB lasers remains the focus (hello $SIVE). VSCEL and microLED remain "unproven" in short distance in rack + chip to chip for 1.6T+ - HVDC deployment on track, 800VDC incremental volume 2027, with higher penetration in 2028. What a stupid CPO related selloff recently.

@The_AI_Investor thanks for baiting me in with a stupid rely. I modeled $MU gross margins way ahead of time and got that spot on months before. That's called pricing in earnings ahead of time. After that there were more DRAM/NAND hikes.

Just some random thoughts, I do think AI is the most disruptive technology in human history. To the level of agricultural or industrial revolution. Since Anthropic, OpenAi, XAI, and others are racing to build superintelligence. The amount of economic impact can't be measured if AI helps find cures for cancer or accelerates discovery for Quantum Computing. Or if AI end up displacing the workforce, which increases profitability for companies. The US Gov has every incentive to keep the buildout going too, as the implications from Warfare, Cybersecurity, is also immeasurable if China takes the lead. So there's likely to be incentives and subsidies to win, even if there's not enough profit derived LLM training/inference. As for sustainability, when you look upstream, $GOOGL is able to fund it majorly with their own cashflow, same with $AMZN, $MSFT. More lukewarm on $META. Very iffy about $ORCL. But I do see some bubbles forming around debt interest like $CRWV. Maybe circular valuations that's happening with OpenAI backlog agreements or $NVDA / $AMD agreements with Neoclouds to buy their GPUs. But as seen with $MSFT and having OpenAI be a major part of the backlog, it did correct off the information, so "bubbles" like that do pop despite the overall markets increasing. Definitely don't see a bubble in upstream semiconductors from $LITE to Sk Hynix though since the amount of profit they get from the buildout would likely be insane to make up for capex decreasing. OpenAI was actually my biggest fear from contagion, eg. $CRWV, $CBRS and others, but they just raised a lot. So think it will be fine for another 1 1/2 years of capex, especially if they IPO this year. I also don't think we'll get massive Fed tightening despite "predictions" since this will trigger a contagion since many of these players rely heavily on debt. And although the Fed is independent, don't think Trump would have supported someone who is against his administration goals. As for semiconductor valuations going up every day like $AMD or $MU, there's probably going to be some corrections here and there. Everything going up together is kinda unhealthy. Can't time the capex peak but just from $AVGO and other projections, it just keeps accelerating exponentially into 2028. Especially as everyone is starting to sign multi year agreements as well. OpenAI contagion / hyperscaler capex decreasing / fed tightening was what I'm looking out for, and no blaring signs of any of those yet. So I think the music will keep playing for this year at the bare minimum.