Serenity @aleabitoreddit

I’m just posting this since people seem really curious about X’s revenue sharing program. Genuinely didn’t expect to get seen 100M+ times every 2 weeks! Would keep doing the same thing tho, even if it were free and I just had a few friends from $RDDT to share ideas with.

Yep will look into Mirae soon. Forgot to add in: Daeduck: ~28–30% of 353200, underlying assets ~3.8x of MC. FC-BGA and MLB related, also KR. DB, ~3.7x of underlying assets (DB HiTek), also KR. Foundry related. Hyosung, ~3.6x underlying assets, transformers. Also KR. Probably not a good idea to go long on Korean governance lol.

In terms of personal notes: 1. Priortech owns 21% of $CAMT, ~1.35x their MC, seems more like holding co. 2. Bit Digital people kept shouting, but NAV discount is not clean $WYFI, lot of dilution + not AI parent. 3. Wistron (3231) is the best one I've seen since $SIVE + Ayar + Wiwynn are one of my favorite trio. ~$16.2B MC, Q1 revenue up a ridiculous amount with 144% Y/Y growth. Owns 35.46% of Wiwynn, which is ~0.66x of MC. I'd expect Wiwynn to keep on growing. 4. Sin-American Silicon 5483 does own 46.64% of GlobalWafers (6488). MC is $3.5B, stake value is ~$7.9B, but not exactly growing too fast independently, though it's heavily trading heavily discount to NAV. 5. Iljin Holdings owns 42.99% of Iljin Electric, it's ~$0.22B MC vs. ~$1.13B NAV holding. This was transformer/cable DC related. But again idk if I trust korean stocks for NAV unlock, probably better for activist investors. 6. Simmtech Holdings was ~$0.17B MC vs. ~$1.0B of parent, which also looks ridiculous. So 6x+ NAV. PCB substrate related name. Also another prob don't trust korean governance type name. I think both $ACMR and WUS have H-Share subsidiary listing soon, and those were the biggest NAV discounts with independent growth. Then you have a highly successful activist going after WUS so I'd expect some middle ground there. So maybe I'll put more concentration into those on top of what I already own Monday, we'll see. And Wistron was growing very fast independently. I'm still doing research, normally this goes in shower thoughts since I haven't formally made a conclusion, but thought others might be interested.

So short term ramp, I see $LPK probably might be more parabolic. Since when equipment suppliers switch from qualification to volume production as seen with $AEHR or $AIXA recently, they tend to get re-rated to $3-7B MCs. But 99% are structurally more capped on where they head. Long term, I personally see $XFAB has much much higher upside if they're able able to lead European's photonic supply chains and build out a $TSEM alternative with MTP. But are earlier on in the process.

@dheerajkaja It's more nuanced, they said "80% are now qualifying with $LPK equipment". So having that convert into 70% targeted market share during HVM is bullish.

Wow, I completely missed this with $LPK meeting notes. And I think markets did too. My biggest takeaway: - NASDAQ listing is actively on their radar and are in discussions. - 70% market share targeted, unholy target. - TAM greatly exceeds former projections. - See a 4-5 base case of players this year with orders. - Industry is ready for high volume ramps. I do think LPK is very undervalued based on these discussions (disclosure: own positions).

Sometimes, I just like sharing ideas to see how it does in markets or if others find it interesting! $MXL, for example, I called out right literally right before that tripled for example, but didn't take positions. I'm basically fully allocated for this year, so if I do add a new name, I have to change weights around. I do change positions a lot, just due to different bottlenecks / architecture changes or macro, especially earlier in the year during wartime. But I think a lot of my names are just waiting to play out, especially with CPO.

Remind me whenever I call out a bottleneck, I should go long myself. Just floated this idea out around MLCC bottlenecks awhile back. Taiyo Yuden up 211.38% $VSH up 146.15% Murata up 155.43% Within the last 2 months... Feels bad. https://t.co/rwHNVYCuk0 https://t.co/XlIGnz34rq

Yes, choosing the right theme is extremely important. Even if $POET doesn't really do anything, it still gets brought up thematically due to $LITE, $COHR, and others. Even if $RDDT outperforms extremely hard, it still gets brought down from $META, $MSFT, $CRM, and other software basket names.

@yuntungshieh Shared this list awhile back around MLCC. Taiyo Yuden is up like 3x.

@carlosfagar $XFAB hasn't even been a month... I made this post saying I'd prefer if long ideas were validated on medium term timeframes, not in 3 weeks lol. $SOI is up over 175% since I shared my idea?

i personally don't see any chance of oversupply, if anything photonics/lasers will be extremely supply constrained. it would be the same media playbook that went on with YMTC/CXMT earlier in the year with Chinese DRAM/NAND flooding narratives, now $MU, $SNDK, Samsung, and others are ATH.

I think something to highlight also is not all my ideas are green, especially on short term timeframes! My core three themes are Neoclouds (Energy), Memory, and Photonics. And I'm glad I chose the literal top performers for each segment from $NBIS to $EWY leaps to $SIVE. However, I still have pretty large losses following the false analyst report on CPO delays that $NVDA refuted: That nuked 3 of my TW CPO longs from Foci, Msscorp, Xintec and others. (which are heavily red). Shunsin / Win Semi are holding up much better though. Some of the other ones in Japan that I've mentioned like Towa, Harmonic Drive, NCI, etc. are performing much better following short-term volatility. As for Korea yes I have PTSD for from Auros and now Foosung that are both both red (I didn't own 093370 though, just got PTSD watching price action). Idk if I'll touch Korea again, just way too volatile. But I still think those will end up green eventually following Sk hynix/samsung qualifications + HVM, and the future japanese supply chain shutdown. I also did change some of my previous long ideas like $XLU following the Iran War nuking all chances of rate cuts from 3-4 down to 0, and that didn't play out too well. Three software names I mentioned previously like $TTD, $META ended up red. $SNAP, I also changed my thesis after noticing the endless SBC accounting methods. $RDDT idea was finally in the green from $130 -> $170 after a long time. But I think the vast majority of my ideas like $MRVL, $NBIS, $ARM, $INTC, $MU, $LITE, SK Hynix, Samsung, for larger cap. Down to $AXTI, $LITE, $AAOI, $RPI, $IQE, and others for smaller cap positions directionally play out pretty well. With random stuff like $SIMO, $HPS.A, $TSEM, $AEHR, $LPK, $SOI, $ALRIB, and so on all ended up turning out aight too. The blended average is kinda overwhelmingly green since majority of my long ideas are triple digit YTD. But I've definitely missed a few. Also entry point is really important too... I mentioned $AAOI at $30 or $AXTI at ~$13, but not everyone has the same entry point. So if someone bought AOI at $220 and it dropped to $160, I'd feel bad. But regardless, I'd prefer to judge how ideas play out on medium term timeframes over a few months rather than a few weeks.

@KeshavS81752717 Thanks! Yeah I try to do my own forcast modeling if it’s not a large Mag7 type name, “institutional”reports that retail sees are usually very off. Like with $RPI consensus was 14% revenue growth, I modeled ~50%ish at the time. And usually my own turn out slightly more accurate

@KristupasSimon2 Went long on Samsung through $EWY earlier on. Still think it’s cheap given operating income forecasts. https://t.co/l0VvosFlVE

@commieserenity $XFAB is more of a 2027/2028 play, but should recover independently h2 imo without silicon photonics, as they should come out of the automotive slump.

@TW_trades_ Let’s just say bears are regarded when the entire industry is laser/capacity constrained. Then $AAOI comes in with $471m/month projections with a lot of independent supply, which happens to be located in the US too.

Bernstein is basically the institutional version of Jim Cramer: Tells retail Kioxia looks like it’s going to crash, gives a -50% PT. Bunch of retail sells. Stock proceeds to skyrocket right after, with another +12% today. https://t.co/kcdO6PlZ7b https://t.co/pXt1kMSZbb

@LipBuTan1 @seokhee4 @intel $INTC just casually out there assembling the Avengers.

How does China manage to smuggle in something the size of a school bus from $ASML? Is the real question.

I’m just finding new ideas. As for $ACMR up to you. It’s just my example on what I’m trying to look for, since it’s has around ~$18.2B worth of assets from ACMR China. And it’s currently trades at a $7.3B MC. I don’t think they can fully liquidate it, which is why it trades discount to nav. But that’s also why standalone ai vertical is important, think their us parent expansion takes off in h2 2026. I just think these type of companies are slightly more derisked since of assets they own

@michaelsikand I only know Sk Telecom because I play Lesgue of Legends! But not sure, no firm opinion, would need to look into it further. Think the nuance of the trade is that the standalone company should have ai growth by itself.

Anyone got a list or ideas of the biggest NAV discounts. But independently has AI growth? Stuff more extreme end like $ACMR and WUS (2316) compared to SK Square. Have exposure to the ones above, just wanted to research more opportunities. Seems to be getting noticed recently

@0xPepeTerelu Yeah, pretty sure Citron shorted $SNDK around $600 and they're probably underwater by a ton now.

@degenlurker_ $AAOI + $SIVEF were my two likely guesses for $AMD large purchase agreements for CW lasers. We'll see what happens. given aaoi + amd analyst channel checks. and amd + gfs/sivers reference laser.