Serenity @aleabitoreddit

@talethdabm89 The research firm got their glass core substrate timelines off. H2 2026 should be production start (SKC Absolics), not 2028. And TAM figures seems off toward 2040, so thought it was better not to cite it. Even though it’s not full value chain like $LPK and GCS in specific

Very grateful for the objective coverage in De Tijd! It’s cool to see my work in Belgium's top newspaper. Also very refreshing to see a journalist cover $AAOI, $XFAB, $MRVL Celestial, and the nuances behind my supply chain thesis in CPO + Photonics. Ty KLismont for the photo. https://t.co/1GdLxJHAsN https://t.co/WRqYKqNTxh

The “You’re So Rich Now” $NVDA ETF. These were just some of the supply chain partners Jensen made a toast to with that comment: TSMC (https://t.co/klkdidhdwN / TSM) - $1.95T Micron (MU) - $1.10T Delta (https://t.co/QU9iDMM1OA) - $202.28B Amphenol ( $APH )- $183.00B Foxconn (https://t.co/aTlwrBvYTH) - $128.88B Vertiv Holdings ( $VRT ) - $121.26B Luxshare (https://t.co/HXnZe7hGCv) - $78.99B STMicroelectronics ( $STM )- $61.60B Unimicron (https://t.co/hpt0Ophv4o) - $52.90B Asia Vital (https://t.co/RvcM9ecvSB) - $33.27B Lite-On (https://t.co/m9p28o5iLO) - $16.97B King Slide Works (https://t.co/KiNhmXtumB) - $15.35B BizLink Holding (https://t.co/yNk855AwXy) - $12.95B Megmeet Electrical (https://t.co/YdTe5Lhinp) - $10.78B Innoscience (https://t.co/1unM4FPf65) - $8.30B Chenbro Micom (https://t.co/8RU12cTJDW) - $5.44B JPC (https://t.co/6EU7QhvSnh) - $1.15B WUS Printed Circuit (https://t.co/52yoDEJ8Wh) - $972M

Everyone is out there making life changing returns on $RDDT. Fully leveraged on the wrong $SPCE (Virgin Galactic) ticker. Instead of $SPCX, which is yet to launch. I guess this just goes to show how much retail demand there is for SpaceX’s IPO.

Hot take: Given $MSFT laptops/PCs are now likely using $NVDA hardware. They might have a shot of taking down $AAPL. Only if Windows OS UI weren’t a flaming pile of garbage compared to how clean Apple OS is. You would think a $3T company would know better UI design by now?

Yo no sé cuántas personas hablan español en X... ¿Es verdad este post? Hablo un poco porque jugué fútbol en Mexico por dos o tres años Voy a publicar un thesis sobre CPO o $AAOI en español si hay muchas personas que leer mi post jaja Lo siento, mi español es malo

@GabrielNeo9 Not really, you want purer play, high beta exposure to their optical division. Foxconn as a whole is way too big. You’re comparing a $123B company to a $2B company, then seeing which doubles faster

Per Foxconn shareholder meeting: CPO switch products expected to begin Q3. 10K units 2026, explosive grow to next year. Aims/expected to be #1 globally. Anyone remember which Foxconn subsidiary handles their advanced optical work? cough.. cough.. Shunsin (6451). Lot of these exponentially scaling volume shipments won’t show up in balance sheet yet, but will likely soon H2. This is called frontrunning the next supercycle.

When I first joined it was primarily folks trying to sell expensive community paywalls or TAs. Everyone crowded around the same large stock $PYPL or $UNH investing if they had public thesis. Or hype names like $HIMS. Large part of my popularity was focusing on critical chokepoints, which was my own investing style. Having them validated in markets like $AXTI that went up a few thousand percent. Then not gatekeeping any information. I’ve been getting a lot of copycats that are rising in popularity, but I actually encourage it if they bring their own opinions. As this helps democratize alpha and ideas. I think the recent popularity is just from starting a completely new trend.

@softmaxedx Yeah, the 0-10 ghost/TP nunu mains have been calling Jabil/Ayar/Apple/Celestial laser supplier a memestock since 1000% ago.

> markets went from doubting $SIVE customers ($150m MC) Turns out it’s likely companies eg. $JBL, Ayar, $AAPL, Defense Primes, $MRVL celestial. > to doubting their execution ($600m mc) Turns out you skip the capex if you go with Win Semi > to doubting what share they get vs competitors like $LITE ($1.2B mc) Turns out it’s likely sole source for companies like $JBL and primary suppliers for Ayar. > to doubting their revenue opportunities ($2B MC) Turns out they got 77% pipeline growth in just a few months > to doubting their partners like Win Semi’s ability to scale (we are here) Anyone who thinks Win Semi… one of the worlds most important foundries for $AVGO, $LITE, SpaceX supply chains… can’t scale capability by 2028 is a stupid bear. We’re at the point where US retail investors acquired the float off Swedish investors. But I’m expecting US institutions to find a way to shake out US retail like they did with $NBIS or $RKLB before the next supercycle.

You already have $JBL as one example, confirming excessive demand with $SIVE expected sole source laser provider for their 1.6T LRO. Don’t really have concerns there. It’s more about looking Jabil or Ayar, then seeing that scale flow back to Sivers once those ramps. And I’d expect a lot of revenue projection hikes next quarter.

@onlyonexhj $JBL acquired part of $INTC optical transceiver division, which is how they’re able to do what they’re doing with $SIVE.

Had some more time go through $SIVE earnings transcript, it’s very bullish: - $JBL pluggable partnership led to more optical transceiver requests for $SIVE So maybe Innolight/Eoptolink and other large players are my guess. - More laser capacity on top of Win Semi with more partners being developed. “When the timing is right, we will bring those details to the market.” CEO said it’s not just Win/Glasgow. I’m already confident in Win Semi scaling capacity, given they’re critical in SpaceX / $AVGO supply chains already. But this derisks those capacity ramp even more. Just not publicly disclosed yet. - tremendous executive credibility and experience with U.S. markets, as well as strong M&A experience Flagged M&A in regards to new board members, which we guessed based on their backgrounds. - “Production orders are imminent from our lead SATCOM”… So that’s volume ramp for space - U.S dual listing progressing smoothly No exact timeline, my personal guess was around late Q3 or Q4. Probably after June board meeting, they’ll announce timing since that’s when new board members come in. - “Viewing the ecosystem vendors as competitors is the wrong way to go about it in supercycles where demand far outstrips supply.” Too much demand in photonics - “Over the last five months, there's been a rapid increase in the Photonics pipeline as well” Basically 77% growth pipeline came from photonics (which validated thesis about cpo/pluggable growth vectors for sivers) TLDR: We moved from “can sivers get customers this small and can they compete with $LITE?” To execution eg. “how much can sivers even produce to feed into each supercycle” as they’re volume ramping while demand > supply.” To me that’s very positive if anything they make gets bought. Also there’s likely to be a lot of TAM expansion in the photonics space post-M&A as well as more ongoing hyperscaler supplier qualifications hinted. Again, revenue pipeline surged 77% in just their quarter (5m) largely from photonics… over the entire company’s history. As CPO scales up h2 2027 onwards, I’m expecting the revenue numbers to look like an exponential curve.

I still find it funny how all the software bros are happy about a 10-15% recovery with $CRM to $FIG. After getting wiped 25-60% of their portfolio. Meanwhile all the AI names from $SNDK to $AAOI are casually up 200-1000%.

@Batemanzm75 I’m gonna go ahead and make a random prediction in a year: $AAOI - $70B MC $SIVE - $30B MC Foci - $15B MC Shunsin - $10B MC

- $AAOI at $12B - $SIVE at $2B - Foci at $2.8B - Shunsin at $2B Usually the best risk/reward to me currently. Lot of my answers before like $AXTI already 10x’d, so different lineup this time. $AAOI due to absurd H1 2027 revenue projections from capacity ramp, doing everything from laser fab to assembly in America. $471M/month… that’s in 2027, the TAM increases exponentially in 2028. $SIVE is also ramping absurdly high, 77% revenue pipeline growth of the entire company’s history to ~$799M Primarily from photonics… in a single quarter. And they’re projecting 60% gross margins off that. Foci - $NVDA / $TSM primarily FAU supplier and bottleneck for COUPE. Genuinely not sure how this is $2.8B. BOM share for their passive components + FAU are massive in 2028. Just a bit early H1 2026. Shunsin - Legit you see Foxconn get CPO/photonics related orders over and over for $NVDA and others. Just nobody knows the packaging/testing gets done by Shunsin. A lot of contracts are also under Shunsin’s subsidiary too.. so markets/algorithms don’t know what’s coming imo. Runner up is $XFAB, they’ll probably be central to EU CHIPS act 2 for silicon photonics at ~$1.5B MC. And of course SiC/GaN foundries should go brr with 800vdc push by Nvidia. Especially if they’re the only high volume one in United States per Dpt. Of Commerce. And it’s such a low price/book ratio so you’re kinda getting the company upside for free, while US Gov/EU Gov subsidize their capex.

To be fair Trump did tell everyone to buy $DELL, multiple times this year. He did go out and buy $1-$5M worth of Dell stock himself after all… But should have seen this coming with Dell blowout earnings. After what happened with $INTC. If you feel like you’re late, there’s a lot of implications to Dell’s upstream suppliers that markets might not have priced in yet.

关于我当初对 $RPI 的投资想法是如何一步步演变的，这篇文章写得太精彩了！ 中文圈的朋友真的很擅长讲故事我非常乐意让更多人看到这类好文 尤其是，通过这些复盘故事大家可以更好地了解我在构思原创做多逻辑时的思考过程。 https://t.co/JpFqTyGnFs

@ram_blings Not 1:1 but $LITE gross margins are ~45-48%. Having 60% gross margins for $SIVE is extreme pricing power. And that’s on top of exponentially growing revenue pipelines… at the very beginning of the CPO supercycle.

@KPACTAFXAMCTEP Thanks for asking that question. What an absolutely legendary response from $SIVE CEO. And this type of answer around demand just derisks Sivers a ton.

Holy crap, this is the most bullish thing I’ve heard from $SIVE so far. From earnings transcripts: “We do not look at competitors when demand far outstrips supply” (literally anything they make gets bought) Along with: “We see 60% gross margins in the future” (incredibly high) “We have two technologies that can feed into these three supercycles that are currently going on.” (Holy revenue opportunities) My high conviction CPO/photonics long is $SIVE for a reason.

$SIVE basically took their entire revenue pipeline. In the entire company’s history. Then grew that by 77% in the first 3 months. Thats by far the clearest indication of the inflection of the CPO supercycle. It’s probably going to look exponential from here on out. https://t.co/81pYk3Y36V https://t.co/AHr6Opff9r

Extremely bullish on $SIVE. I’m very brutally honest when it comes to earnings reports on the names I own. We got 77% forward growth indications from the entire company’s pipelines… over a single quarter. $JBL ramp confirmation. Then multiple volume ramp production starts from management. Multiple. Should keep exponentially growing over next two years. This was just the inflection point I called out.

@BigKaiWang Sequential 77% growth. Basically entire company revenue pipeline from all these years. And it increased 77% in the first few months of 2026. Absurd forward growth indications coming from $SIVE.