Serenity @aleabitoreddit

@firstadopter Yep, I lost a sht ton recently and makes me sad if others did too. Always hard to build a port full of $SNDK type longs that go up despite macro climates.

Feels like the only thing that hasn’t crashed… Is memory like $MU, indexes, or large cap semis like Intel so far. - Photonics from $AXTI to $SIVE down 40%. - Space from $ASTS and $RKLB down 40% 1M. - Popular AI names like $PLTR is down ~35% YTD. - Software like $CRM down -40%. - Bitcoin sub <60k, Ethereum sub <$16k. Not a fun time with a hawkish fed narrative and potential rate hikes. However this does sorta feel overshot due to margin liquidations on less liquid assets compared to mega caps. But we’ll see what happens, usually fundamentals override liquidity shock in the longer run. I’m still personally bullish on the AI buildout + upstream AI capex beneficiaries, but 1-2 potential rate hikes certainly don’t help.

The $WEN meme traders made it to Global Media from Japan to US! The burger fast food chain is now up ~50%, which is pretty impressive. Feels bad to be sidelined and see my AI memory/optical portfolio perform worse than a $RDDT memestock tho. Did anyone take positions? https://t.co/hM0RhWh21c https://t.co/bmxwlDDxMX

Very interesting statement today: $MU CEO predicts a multi-decade memory demand cycle driven by humanoid robots. "Humanoid robots, he says, will require roughly ten times more memory than today’s Level 2+ autonomous vehicles." "And that demand wave is set to begin before the decade is out." Something as well as was "Over time, we expect the value of on-device AI combined with pent-up unit replacement demand to drive memory demand growth" Which is also another trend (Apple Intelligence is currently dog, but I'm sure we'll see innovations with localized/edge AI). Feels like all the industry leaders from $TSM Chairman, $TSLA Elon Musk, to $MU CEO see humanoids as the next major trend so physical AI is probably next. I wonder if the world is going to have enough memory. Or if we'll see enough breakthroughs to shrink memory usage.

Think so. But in the meantime, I call my strategy: Diversified Losses. With $AXTI, $SOI, $AAOI, and many others. Had a massive drawdown recently, CPO exposure was hit the hardest (Foci, Msscorp, etc) and adjacent names, feels bad. Probably lesson personally, I had too much concentration in photonics vs. memory/other sectors without weighting/hedging properly. With Soitec, there's been a few negative institutional reports that I'd disagree with. Think AXT was hit harder in specific just because of float expansion/dilution concerns. AAOI, probably just brought down with the theme. I can't give advice on buying, so completely up to you to make for cost averaging or entering positions. But I do think we're still early in the Supercycle with photonics, there's bound to be corrections/crashes along the way up. If my personal thesis is correct though, many of these names will have a major inflection point in midway through 2027 scaling up to 2028. Markets don't typically wait to price things in advance, but some ideas might be a tad early or in the buildout given it's H2 2026 now. Which is why it's important to build your own conviction.

@AliTava2020 $DRAM is one of the more positive ETFs I have a view on since it's exposure to SK Hynix, Samsung, $MU, and $SNDK. Which is everything people kinda want for memory exposure.

I mean if $BABA Qwen marketshare increases from distilling Anthropic models effectively. Rewards outweigh the risks because there's been no penalties (which is why they're doing this). Lot of US AI startups have been using Qwen lately cause of how cost effective it is vs. Gemini and others... But so far optically, no getting caught is bearish. Not sure why more things aren't done on the US side enforcing penalties for this though.

Today, Anthropic has directly accused the $BABA Qwen AI lab of distilling its frontier AI models. By creating thousands of fake accounts and over 28.8 million exchanges. Feels like this is kind of known by now... but there's been no real penalties enforced yet. We'll see what happens.

@mindmoon_108 @Akaletiko Eh, maybe other way around where $TSM sees what memory players are doing and starts price hiking too.

@Zenctwill $MU earnings are probably a good read through on SK Hynix/Samsung, which is majority of KOSPI weighting (passively too). So seems more likely than not for SK index. It’s also a positive read through on AI demand, which is why $LITE, $AAOI, and others jumped a tiny bit AH.

Always amazing looking at $MU earnings: Revenue: $41.46B vs. $35.8B est. EPS: $25.11 vs. $20.78 est. Forecasts: Revenue: $49B to $51B, vs $43.24B est EPS: $30.00 to $32.00, vs. $25.31. “Micron said on Wednesday that it has signed 16 long-term agreements” "When completed, we expect approximately half or more of our company revenue to be under these" Looks like memory demand has become structural… But great earnings to show up the AI trade is continuing to ramp up.

Nancy Pelosi just disclosed: - $1 million - $5 million of $INTC March 2027 calls - 200 $UBER March 19, 2027 call option contracts with a $50 strike price This was done last month May 29th. (her husband is the active trader executing this). Just for the people who like following along Pelosi family trades.

@Web3Eden01 Short sellers (eg. Night Market) were claiming Lumilens had no customers on their $POET short report. So Lumilens going out and saying they have a top-3 hyperscaler customer is probably pretty material.

Fun new information discovery from Poet OSINT community: Seems likely that $POET / $SIVE are going to power a Top-3 hyperscaler (either Amazon, Microsoft, Google). Given a Linkedin update from Ankur Singla (CEO of Lumilens). Who stated their customer is one of the top 3 hyperscalers with their post focusing on CPO/NPO. With that clue, seems more likely the Sivers CW DFB light source path over other EML suppliers given it's CPO Scale Out/NPO. If you don't remember, Sivers is the laser supplier to Poet. And Poet has purchase agreements with Lumilens. Always fun to find major potential breadcrumbs in the wild before they're officially confirmed. (Disclosure, long Sive)

OpenLight (private) seems to get bigger and bigger every time I look at it. If you’re curious about their public ecosystem outside of Advantest: $JBL ( $SIVE partner ) for scaling PICs $MRVL and $MXL for DSPs $TSEM for the foundry. $300394.SZ / TFC Optical (OSAT/subassembly) Can often get exposure into private growth through public equities if you’re not an accredited investor. Since optical players look very interconnected.

Don’t quite think “siphoned off” is the correct term. It’s capex for massive revenue increase or margin increase down the line. $AMZN is probably my favorite hyperscaler right now and example to give. Amazon’s headcount is absurd, like ~1.57M. If the capex goes into automating their workforce with LLMs. Then transitioning into physical AI: - things from self driving (deliveries) - robotics (Amazon warehouses, shipping automation). + revenue increase from building out AWS compute with Trainium and possibly selling chips too with the Neocloud strat. It’s probably the clearest path forward compared to every hyperscaler out there. $TSLA optimus use case targets is extremely broad as a pitch, but Amazon already has a specific reason to scale robotics for internal opex optimization. As for $GOOGL, probably 2nd right now, AI capex was necessary for defending its Google Search moat Gemini from ChatGPT They also have Google Cloud revenue with efficient TPUs + can sell TPUs like Nvidia GPUs. Gemini user volumes keep going up (despite the lack of contention in frontier benchmarks); and AI strategy to be working for ad optimization too. But there’s less clear paths with physical AI stuff ig? Microsoft and Meta are still trying to convince the market why capex is necessary, (we’re kinda seeing that in effect with Meta’s 30%+ Y/Y revenue growth), but doesn’t look like they’re convinced. As for market narratives, Microsoft Maia seems to be behind, their AI development was stunted from OpenAi investments, so sentiment is kinda in the ground. But think that will change down the road like the 180 with Google. I’m sure all the hyperscalers are seeing the leader effect right now: If you have the leading LLM, people will keep using it. That LLM gets smarter from all the training data; and that gap might be structural. Which is why everyone is kinda rushing the buildout right now, but for some the immediate incentives seem obvious.

I find it interesting that the degens on $RDDT are starting a viral campaign to save Wendy’s ( $WEN ). The US fast food burger chain. And the stock price is now up 20% overnight. Just for background: Wendy’s is a popular community meme, where people work behind the dumpsters after their portfolios go to 0 from 0DTE options. (No positions, just found it amusing) I wonder if it’s going to work?

Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM: -6.1% $AMD: -6.04% Feels like anything high-beta or semis had a steep drop.

@SMike1271547 I actually just added on $AAOI. Was talking about in general since everything dropped across the board, not specific names MB.

Today, $XFAB (1.23B MC) receives €127.4 million from CHIPS ACT for their MEMS Foundry. "The «Fab4Micro» in Erfurt is a key project for the technological sovereignty of Germany and Europe, explained Thuringia’s head of government." The production start is planned in 2028 (finanzen). With Europe's new CHIPS ACT 2 as a concurrent fundamental tailwind.

@_stockResearch You can tell how dumb the market is since $CRCL is actually one of the few names actually largely benefiting from rate hikes. But that dropped anyways recently.

Dip looks like a clear buying opportunity for me personally from $MU, $INTC, to $TSM. Since we got a massive drop off BS narratives like 3 rate hikes off no newly material macroeconomic data (which comes out Thursday). If institutions really believed 3 rate hike sellside garbage that BofA put out: They would profit off it with CME/prediction markets. Which are still projecting 74% no rate hike in July. But they don't. So they're feeding retail investors garbage.

Nothing is more stupid than Bloomberg copying BofA playbook with KOSPI back in March. And framing Taiwan’s $TSM ~23.6x forward p/e and $NVDA upstream supply chain as a “bubble”. Then using the words going into “debt” instead of “margin” + comparing Taiwan’s market to the .com bubble. Crap like this is why retail trust in media has dropped off a cliff in the past few years.

$SIVE + Aeva likely coded from the new PR today and SIVE + Apple. For Sivers lasers powering robotics / physical AI. -> Sivers lasers powering Boston Dynamics Atlas via. LG Innotek for robotics -> Nvidia Hyperion ecosystem w/ Sivers lasers for physical AI. Are possible paths with Aeva. Apple likely using Sivers also reiterated from the newer webpage: “Optical sensing modules for wearables” from biometric and health monitoring. They just can’t namedrop partners due to confidentiality, but consumer sensing is probably the biggest tell. Physical AI and mass consumer production with Apple would be very material to revenue.

$XFAB upgraded to outperform with a PT of €12.8 by Bernstein, up from €5. Okay I forgive you Bernstein for Kioxia and Intel. I still think that’s just reactive PTs off automotive recovery, SiC/power semi ramp up. And undershooting potential a lot… If markets price in the possibility of xfab moving to HVM. On their silicon photonics foundry w/ photonixfab / Nvidia + LIGENTEC for TFLN on SOI. Regardless I’m bullish too on XFAB and curious where it heads.