Serenity @aleabitoreddit

@KeshavS81752717 Thanks! Yeah I try to do my own forcast modeling if it’s not a large Mag7 type name, “institutional”reports that retail sees are usually very off. Like with $RPI consensus was 14% revenue growth, I modeled ~50%ish at the time. And usually my own turn out slightly more accurate

@KristupasSimon2 Went long on Samsung through $EWY earlier on. Still think it’s cheap given operating income forecasts. https://t.co/l0VvosFlVE

@commieserenity $XFAB is more of a 2027/2028 play, but should recover independently h2 imo without silicon photonics, as they should come out of the automotive slump.

@TW_trades_ Let’s just say bears are regarded when the entire industry is laser/capacity constrained. Then $AAOI comes in with $471m/month projections with a lot of independent supply, which happens to be located in the US too.

Bernstein is basically the institutional version of Jim Cramer: Tells retail Kioxia looks like it’s going to crash, gives a -50% PT. Bunch of retail sells. Stock proceeds to skyrocket right after, with another +12% today. https://t.co/kcdO6PlZ7b https://t.co/pXt1kMSZbb

@LipBuTan1 @seokhee4 @intel $INTC just casually out there assembling the Avengers.

How does China manage to smuggle in something the size of a school bus from $ASML? Is the real question.

I’m just finding new ideas. As for $ACMR up to you. It’s just my example on what I’m trying to look for, since it’s has around ~$18.2B worth of assets from ACMR China. And it’s currently trades at a $7.3B MC. I don’t think they can fully liquidate it, which is why it trades discount to nav. But that’s also why standalone ai vertical is important, think their us parent expansion takes off in h2 2026. I just think these type of companies are slightly more derisked since of assets they own

@michaelsikand I only know Sk Telecom because I play Lesgue of Legends! But not sure, no firm opinion, would need to look into it further. Think the nuance of the trade is that the standalone company should have ai growth by itself.

Anyone got a list or ideas of the biggest NAV discounts. But independently has AI growth? Stuff more extreme end like $ACMR and WUS (2316) compared to SK Square. Have exposure to the ones above, just wanted to research more opportunities. Seems to be getting noticed recently

@0xPepeTerelu Yeah, pretty sure Citron shorted $SNDK around $600 and they're probably underwater by a ton now.

@degenlurker_ $AAOI + $SIVEF were my two likely guesses for $AMD large purchase agreements for CW lasers. We'll see what happens. given aaoi + amd analyst channel checks. and amd + gfs/sivers reference laser.

Trump announced Intel + Apple partnership, sending $INTC up 8% today. Intel execs were reportedly surprised by the $AAPL announcement by Donald Trump. TBH, the President should lead Intel's marketing team at this point. Feel's like he's hard carrying the stock.

Just a reminder: 99% of X was bearish on memory 3 months ago... Since then: $MU $380 -> $1122 (+195.26%) $SNDK $565 -> $2155 (+281.42%) $EWY $132 -> $219 (+65.91%) SK Hynix 849K -> 2.685M KRW (+215.5%) Samsung 172K -> 362K KRW (+110.7%) If you see a bunch of projections on memory names like Samsung becoming the most profitable company in the world in 2028. Might be a good idea to think independently outside of the narratives at the time like "Oil, LNG, Helium, Iran, etc." Probably same thing now with optical names and their projections into 2027, 2028. I do think photonics and memory are the 2 top themes though, with optics being very early into the supercycle.

I think Jim Cramer’s law needs to be studied in history books. Even $SPCX can’t withstand his blessing. https://t.co/8Hr7898NmA https://t.co/xGiAOImQXE

非常感谢中文社区对我最看好股票的投资思路进行的深度剖析！ 总的来说，像 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 这样的激光公司是我个人的最爱，因为它们在拓展营收方面有着极大的想象空间。它们可以不仅仅局限于销售激光器，还能制造完整的光模块 以及各种光引擎或 ELS (外部光源) 组件。 又或者像 $COHR 那样，甚至可以向上游延伸进军衬底制造领域，从而实现垂直整合，并不断提升自身的毛利率和总潜在市场规模 TAM 这其中很大一部分的关键在于要率先精准踩中投资主线，毕竟去年很多人甚至都不觉得“光子学（photonics）”能成为一个真正的热门概念。 而且我认为最会让大多数人感到惊讶的是，我们目前仍处于极其早期的阶段。绝大多数的营收放量（爬坡）要到明年，也就是 2027 年的上半年乃至下半年才会真正开始！ 不过，能看到中文社区大家持续不断的支持，真的让我感觉非常棒。我会尽我所能，不辜负大家给我起的 “白毛股神” 这个称号。

$ALRIB general meeting notes came out today. -2nd ROSIE System expected to be delivered shortly to a leading quantum computing player” in the US. - They’re also intensifying BD for their products used for BTO/STO on photonics and recorded strong interest. Just for background, they’re the MBE duopoly with Veeco, which got re-rated heavily recently (Disclosure own Riber), with exposure to Quantum. Positive development overall.

@cryptogal928 $RDDT poll results would probably be: 40%: -$10k+ in credit card debt 30%: $0-100K 29.99%: $0 after 0DTE options went worthless .01%: $100k+

I agree with Palliser Capital here. As a shareholder, it’s just so stupid how WUS (2316 TW) MC can be ~$1B MC. While they own a 11.26% stake of WUS Kunshan, a $39.3B (¥282B CNY) company… Which is worth $4.42B pre-tax. Just sell 1/4th or something? And you get an extra ~$1.1B for PCB growth at the inflection point with AI demand. Which is more than your current MC pre-tax, purely in cash. And there’s still $3.3B in assets + markets might revalue your company because of willingness to trim locked up assets. Nobody is asking you to trim everything, but the NAV disconnect is insanity. WUS TW management should really reconsider.

Jim Cramer gave $SPCX his blessing. https://t.co/DSbyBt9f0D https://t.co/ScSuzUwL50

$AEHR receives follow up production order from major Silicon Photonics Customer for wafer level burn in systems. Now up 11.29% today to $116. Only 2 months ago it was in the $30's, good times. https://t.co/It24lVLmBe https://t.co/MhEQmNgAek

@Raccoononomics $JBL would be my pick if I had to choose one.

And 7 months later... $NBIS is all time highs. While $IREN bagholders are still funding the $6,000,000,000 ATM and stuck at the same price back in November. Guess this settles the debate? https://t.co/wYvbhw4xK3 https://t.co/1CKhfpy1BO

It's really important to add the context I added later if you're reposting this multiple times, but thanks for highlighting older ideas. With $XLU, in hindsight, was an extremely good idea for utilities. The thesis was: extreme demand from AI, capex, and rate cuts. Then Iran War unexpectedly happened, and I made statements that it threw a knife into the thesis. Since we went from 3-4 rate cut projected, down to 0, and even possibility of hikes. So I cut majority concentration, but still hold a tiny bit. Utilities trade was heavily dependent on rate cuts. It's important to stay up to date with current events, since thesis can change anytime, especially during macro black swan events.

Don’t think there’s any new news from $XFAB. Their company needs to do a better job with marketing materials though. Since nobody thinks they’re optical ai dc or power semi adjacent exposure apparently. However, I would have thought that since they’re leading Europe’s silicon photonics value chain efforts with PhotonixFab. And apparently everyone + EU are discussing sovereign AI supply chains after Fable’s export controls. One might think they’re a major beneficiary alongside IMEC, ligentec and others in the sovereign AI push? Anyway, markets can always disagree or maybe they didn’t link things together. Regardless, I’m just curious how this plays out. (Disclosure, own positions)