Serenity @aleabitoreddit

@ChenHW8899 I would personally long LeaderDrive (688017) if I were in China! Still really early on into robotics ramp, but I think they’ll be a clear winner given China’s lead in low cost, mass production robotics.

I mean... if i had to guess, $LPK did claim "80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment". Kinda clear glass substrates is the next packaging shift! From est. timelines, major players like Absolics is ramping H2 2026, Samsung Electro Mechanics 2027 + their partners. Then there's major shifts like TSM CoPoS 2028 (seems possible $LPK upstream exposure, unconfirmed). Just that claim of 80% is staggering and my personal expectation was markets might price it in eventually as they volume ramp (disclosure, own LPK). Don't think there needs to be any major news, probably just getting closer to HVM timelines.

Trendforce reports that $AMD is actively trying to secure CW laser supply with multiple major procurement orders... Is probably just the start of the bottleneck? There's not much independent capacity in Western supply chains left other than $SIVE or $AAOI and maybe Macom. Especially after Lumentum/Coherent got locked up with multi-year agreements with Nvidia. (disclosure, own Sive and aaoi) Lumentum is already CW laser constrained and is likely buying off Japanese companies like Sumitomo/Furukawa if I had to guess per ER, and those are probably running at max capacity. From the Trendforce report, this is: "to ensure that its future capacity will not be constrained by NVIDIA and other major Cloud Service Providers (CSPs)." I wouldn't be surprised if other hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, and others saw Nvidia / AMD signing LTAs, and are trying to secure capacity next. A lot of it is game theory on not getting choked out by competitors, and looks like AMD is tipping the first domino after Nvidia. But my opinion is that this just goes and show how invaluable this CW laser chokepoint is and the companies are inside it.

@00000sol0 True, headline difference: Serenity Research takes a stake in $SIVE, what a big deal! "Serenity" took a stake in $SIVE, must be a retail meme.

@0xara5h I said their $INTC $36 PT report was super troll back in Jan And Intel went up triple digits after that.

@soulbiri1 Northland and a few others publish decent reports. But Bernstein is just trolling at this point, I don’t even own Kioxia but these projections are dumb.

Bernstein is legit the dumbest analyst firm I’ve seen calling for a 50% crash in Kioxia. They gave $INTC a $36 PT back in Jan and now it’s $118. Good lesson to ignore institutional reports that get published for retail consumption. They’re not here to help retail investors. https://t.co/PI6EOX17EC

@AsianbeBlazin Yep, but there hasn’t been any much news with $AEHR. Not really heavily debated stock like $AAOI aside from one or two comments saying AEHR would go back down to $25.

I’m not sure why many folks are super bearish on my high conviction $AAOI long… Ever since $30, then on the way up to $170. (Yes I do think every bear is wrong, we’ll see who’s right). They have scarce laser capacity that $AMD and other hyperscalers are looking for. While the entire industry is bottlenecked by $NVDA. Along with a US transceiver supply chain for mass production of 800g/1.6T (management - largest in America). While demand far exceeds supply and while assembly gets outsourced to Asia. Then they’re quoting $471M monthly revenue in H1 entering H2 of 2027. Which is $5.6B ARR, off a $13.5B MC… While a lot of major inflection volume hits even later in 2028. As for fluctuations, there might be active $600M ATMs that get tapped into at random times. And random bear posts + macro from time to time that cause more volatility (eg. Analyst notes saying bear on $LITE due to false CPO delay rumors, then that brings down others in the sector). Also we’re a year out so timelines are still a little early. I haven’t seen such fast revenue ramp since $NBIS.

Mizuho Research: No delays on CPO or 800v dc. Revised up optical engine projections from $NVDA demand ramp. - Next phase in CPO for long term, believes InP DFB lasers remains the focus (hello $SIVE). VSCEL and microLED remain "unproven" in short distance in rack + chip to chip for 1.6T+ - HVDC deployment on track, 800VDC incremental volume 2027, with higher penetration in 2028. What a stupid CPO related selloff recently.

@The_AI_Investor thanks for baiting me in with a stupid rely. I modeled $MU gross margins way ahead of time and got that spot on months before. That's called pricing in earnings ahead of time. After that there were more DRAM/NAND hikes.

Just some random thoughts, I do think AI is the most disruptive technology in human history. To the level of agricultural or industrial revolution. Since Anthropic, OpenAi, XAI, and others are racing to build superintelligence. The amount of economic impact can't be measured if AI helps find cures for cancer or accelerates discovery for Quantum Computing. Or if AI end up displacing the workforce, which increases profitability for companies. The US Gov has every incentive to keep the buildout going too, as the implications from Warfare, Cybersecurity, is also immeasurable if China takes the lead. So there's likely to be incentives and subsidies to win, even if there's not enough profit derived LLM training/inference. As for sustainability, when you look upstream, $GOOGL is able to fund it majorly with their own cashflow, same with $AMZN, $MSFT. More lukewarm on $META. Very iffy about $ORCL. But I do see some bubbles forming around debt interest like $CRWV. Maybe circular valuations that's happening with OpenAI backlog agreements or $NVDA / $AMD agreements with Neoclouds to buy their GPUs. But as seen with $MSFT and having OpenAI be a major part of the backlog, it did correct off the information, so "bubbles" like that do pop despite the overall markets increasing. Definitely don't see a bubble in upstream semiconductors from $LITE to Sk Hynix though since the amount of profit they get from the buildout would likely be insane to make up for capex decreasing. OpenAI was actually my biggest fear from contagion, eg. $CRWV, $CBRS and others, but they just raised a lot. So think it will be fine for another 1 1/2 years of capex, especially if they IPO this year. I also don't think we'll get massive Fed tightening despite "predictions" since this will trigger a contagion since many of these players rely heavily on debt. And although the Fed is independent, don't think Trump would have supported someone who is against his administration goals. As for semiconductor valuations going up every day like $AMD or $MU, there's probably going to be some corrections here and there. Everything going up together is kinda unhealthy. Can't time the capex peak but just from $AVGO and other projections, it just keeps accelerating exponentially into 2028. Especially as everyone is starting to sign multi year agreements as well. OpenAI contagion / hyperscaler capex decreasing / fed tightening was what I'm looking out for, and no blaring signs of any of those yet. So I think the music will keep playing for this year at the bare minimum.

@88magalhaes Lmfao actually $SPCX uses $NBIS now. Did not think of that angle. Don’t think it’s anything newly material though for Nebius, just a fun connection.

Woah, $SPCX acquired Cursor for $60B. I did not think it was worth that much… Maybe network effect or data for improving models became invaluable? I’m sure Elon has a plan in mind, the Twitter acquisition paid extreme dividends.

Still holding Foci/Nextronics. There was a CPO bear post from an analyst that said there would be delays (which $NVDA denied), which caused CPO related stocks to crash. Personally think Foci will end up a bottleneck for $TSM COUPE / $NVDA and Nextronics to be a beneficiary of optical components relative to MC in $NVDA supply chains. We'll see how this plays out.

@hoarderresearch yep, trying my best! Always a fun time to get anonymous threats of violence when i post about $IREN excessive ATMs from time to time.

Yeah... I'm not quite sure why everyone likes just throwing personal accusations. Like "scam" or "memestock" every time I post a thesis. Like when I bought $AXTI (still holding shares btw): - spent the time mapping the InP substrate supply chain - found analyst sources around market share - tracked high purity indium pricing on SMM - modeled game theory around bottleneck hikes/supply shocks. - tracked Gov publications like seizure of optical companies or export controls Then just posted the idea for free, cause it's a hobby. Everyone just threw out personal insults as it went up in price... Just for Reuters to confirm it 7M later that InP substrates can halt the AI buildout. I'm just sharing ideas out for free, could always be wrong, and they usually take some time to play out. But would prefer instead if folks/media played devil's advocate on the thesis side like export controls or ASP pricing power... Over just making up narratives or personal accusations like "memestock" or "foreign institutional team" when they lack the technical depth to understand AI supply chains.

@beauty_oe Yep, I would not be surprised if $AMD signed LTAs with $SIVE given the new Trendforce report that they're going around trying to secure CW laser capacity.

@schwabdeeznuts Yeah my $EWY leaps are up a similar amount, but I did 2028 dates. Pretty insane gains on the South Korean index!

I did say $MU looked like the next $NVDA. Now we're at a $1.23T MC. Started talking more about Samsung Electronics/Sk Hynix back in 2025. Put more concentration into the memory theme like $SNDK and others, Jan of this year. And I'm glad my prediction with Micron + memory is playing out well! Hope people had fun with $EWY longs too, those are up a lot.

@aletir99 When has US investors ever cared about what people in Sweden think? I still think $SIVE has the potential to be the next $75B $LITE if they follow the same M&A route after NASDAQ Listing.

@aistruder CPO hasn't ramped up yet so very early. Shunsin should actually benefit the fastest though given H2 scale out with Foxconn. Win Semi is great regardless but benefits from photonics vertical. Foci/Msscorps are more h2 2027. $AXTI took like 5-7 months to fully play out.

@yangqisniper $AXTI was a fun one. Actually every single one of my photonics ideas last year went up triple % digits. Got the entire theme + supply chain right!

@cchronobreakk I don't need to open any new US stock position when all my ideas from memory to photonics like $AAOI are still playing out?

Fun throwback to random ideas back in 2025. Back then, $AAOI was $2B MC, $LITE was a $26B MC, $AXTI was $500M Now: - AAOI is $15.37B - Lumentum is $74.47B - AXT is $7.24B Was working off less information back then, given it was an early theme. Obviously nuances with ASIC programs might have been missed as more details came out. But directionally, glad thematically my ideas turned out correct. Feels like dejavu seeing current $3B MC optical longs like $SIVE.