Serenity @aleabitoreddit

Just in case people are wondering about my track record with European equities: $RPI: $280 -> $800 (agentic AI hardware demand thesis). $LPK: ~$6, thesis at $13 -> $24.2 (glass cores substrates close monopoly) $SOI: $44 -> $181 (silicon photonics, monopoly over substrates) $SIVE: $4 -> $71 (CPO, critical chokepoints over lasers). $IQE: $12 -> $47 (latent epiwafer capacity, information discovery around downstream photonics companies). $ALRIB: $5 -> $15 (duopoly, synthesis around quantum buyers with photonics growth verticals). And now $XFAB at $9. I’m not always right. But every single one of my European longs thesis have been validated so far by either earnings, investments (eg. $MTSI in IQE) or market returns.

I mean all my European longs from $SOI, $IQE, $RPI, $SIVE, $ALRIB followed this trend if we just look at chart. Long term they’ve all ended up directionally right, and now they’re all up hundreds of percent. I don’t control or trade volatility with $XFAB, but interested in being a part of their long term growth vectors with power semis/photonics.

There was a wave of negative news when I first went long on $SOI that caused unnecessary volatility. It’s now up 300%, turned out institutions bought up the float, after my thesis. Regardless of unintended volatility, my goal is to secure critical nodes critical to the US supply chains like $XFAB.

I genuinely think $XFAB is very compelling at $1.5B MC, despite recent volatility. Per NIST filings stated they were the only high volume SiC foundry in America. Making them extremely “critical infrastructure”… Verbatim from the US Gov. And they’re the first comprehensive pure play foundry for SiC/GaN. So it’s very compelling exposure as $NVDA pushes 800 VDC and as other power semi players from $NVTS and $WOLF are all re-rating hard. For long term photonics exposure: They were literally listed in CHIPS Act 2 blueprints… with $NOK / $NVDA evaluations right now. And production ramp up in 2027/volume production H1 2028 expected. So you have a company at $1.5B MC: Critical both on the power semis front to the US government. And critical to both photonics front to the EU government. Coming off of a legacy drag cycle with auto and others (similar to Soitec). I think I’d follow EU/US government signals for what’s critical infrastructure given expected dual continent subsidies… Over random media analysts trying to cause unnecessary volatility saying it’s a memestock with no fundamentals.

@x4tsr Yeah, well deserved victory lap that it’s now up hundreds of percent since European media kept shtting on my $SOI idea.

Oh look, $SOI is now up 4X+ since I went long. And another 15%+ after earnings. Despite media“analysts”claiming there was nothing new with Soitec. The fact they’re trying to reorganize the company to answer demand for SOI substrates for photonics. It’s a pretty positive read-through on what’s to come for the company in the next two years. Again with companies with forward growth opportunities, it’s about looking at the future… not past earnings, unlike what some Europeans might only care about.

@159Adir52550 CPO is largely h2 2027. $JBL already announced timelines for mass production on their 1.6T LRO using $SIVE so that’s material revenue coming in within 3-10m.

Ayar’s announcement today with Wiwynn is potentially very material for $SIVE regarding CPO -> rack scale deployments. As Wiwynn cloud clients include $AMZN, $META, $MSFT. And they’ve been in talks for $GOOGL TPU deployments. I think just for some reference architectures it’s around 512+ supernova light sourc a rack. So if $SIVE is the primary laser array supplier (which we expect, given Macom + Lumentum was removed from Ayar’s site). Even modest rack deployments would be very meaningful for revenue. This is just rack scale commercialization potential right now from $SIVE / Ayar / Wiwynn, which won’t show up in revenue financials yet.

Appreciate the more neutral coverage by Reuters and Bloomberg on $XFAB today. Although it would be nicer to focus more on the structural thesis presented… Around 800 vdc power semis $NVDA exposure + with ongoing $NVDA / $NOK evaluations for photonics. And around CHIPS Act semiconductor sovereignty as the near term catalyst. Rather than around volatility from novel information synthesis. I spend a lot of time looking at regulatory filings to find compelling things market missed you know…

@halldj00 $SIVE was high confidence laser supplier directly to Celestial. Celestial got bought by $MRVL. https://t.co/zc18YS8EwJ

People do valuation analysis wrong on names like Sivers or $AXTI. You won’t be able to model $SIVE revenue projections if they’re end up doing M&A + TAM expansioning down optical engines/ELS/optical transceiver stack. Right now it’s looking at all the hyperscaler supply chains they’re qualified into, and a venture style thesis on how they can capture more market share of overall CPO supercycle.

$MRVL earnings were a bullish indicator on the broader CPO theme (and $SIVE as the likely laser supplier). - “Scale-up interconnect represents one of the newest and most strategically important opportunities emerging in AI infrastructure.” CPO thematically go brrr - Confirmation Celestial was selected by T1 hyperscaler for scale up. I’ve found Celestial $AMZN warrants in the past)… so probably Amazon. - Scale-up optics revenue next year should be more than 2x prior ~$150M outlook with Celestial Forward revenue ramp expectations go brrr. - Celestial team plus $MRVL optics team was a “home run”. Marvell sees celestial as growth vector, upstream celestial suppliers go brr - $MRVL is now focused on bringing Celestial to high volume manufacturing. Volume ramp indicator If you don’t recall, there was OSINT mapping $SIVE directly to Celestial, not through $POET. So Celestial forward growth is a volume ramp indicator for Sivers lasers.

Look who joined team $NBIS. 5.6% is a pretty massive stake, maybe he realized by now it’s miles better than the dumpster fire that is $IREN. That being said: Nebius is now up ~3x since I went long last year. Weebius has plot armor.

Bro media… how is $XFAB a meme stock? Can you not repeat the same mistake with $RPI this time? They’re literally getting CHIPS ACT funding from the EU because of how critical they are. And have $NVDA / $NOK evaluating their SiPH side of things, while they traded at a low ~1.28 P/B. This just reminded me of $SOI low p/b but high growth verticals out of legacy segment drag. $XFAB was literally mentioned for CHIPS ACT 2 next week in the blueprints… Which focuses around photonics. The main revenue ramp was around power semis with $NVDA pushing 800 vdc. So $NVTS, $POWI, $WOLF and everyone have been taking off recently. Markets just missed $XFAB, because they’re a lesser known foundry in power semis…But US Dpt. Of commerce pointed them out as the only high volume SiC foundry in the US 2Y ago. I just happened to point out the connections. Just because you don’t understand something, don’t just go call it a “meme stock” with price detached from fundamentals.

They’re stupid? $JBL announced demand > supply for their 1.6T LRO and this signals mass production on $SIVE lasers. Ayar raised $500m for volume ramp and dropped $LITE and $MTSI for $SIVE as primary. $AMD went with $GFS and have a high chance cw of using sivers for their CPO program. Sivers also signaled M&A which expands TAM a ton downstream

@ivobuild $SIVE is in Wiwynn supply chains through Ayar, not Winway. It’s also partnered with Win Semi. They sound the same but all different companies

Idk… I mean everyone called $AXTI a scam and now it’s up thousands of percent? Everyone called $AAOI management a scam and now that’s up 7x too. Institutions went out and criticized my $SOI long as well at $44 and now it’s $170… after they bought the float… Not sure if it’s short selling or trying to accumulate the float.

I actually got every single one of these predictions right > InP substrate bottleneck > laser bottleneck, and markets rewarding $AAOI with laser fabs for it. But it did take markets 6 months to realize how important $AXTI was. As well as for the bottleneck to start showing up in the epiwafer companies like landmark. All the modeling with AXT was with former contracts made, not after $SNDK style ASP hikes.

@MalteAnkan20 $XFAB is more tethered to power semis growth. With silicon photonics upside optionality depending on how $NVDA / $NOK evaluations go

Back when $AAOI was ~$20-30 when I went long: I thought $AMZN and $MSFT were qualifying specific optical transceivers for their ASIC programs. Turns out it’s more interchangeable/mass producible. Regardless, glad my thesis on $LITE, $AAOI, Innolight, $COHR, $AXTI played out so well. Keep in mind: everyone on X was saying “scam management” with $AAOI back at $20-30… Or “scam company” with $AXTI at $12. FUD was pretty extreme. Feels like dejavu again… going long on the next CPO architectural shift like $SIVE or Foci? And getting the same comments. We’ll see if my CPO longs play out the same way like Shunsin does with Innolight or $SIVE does with $LITE. Either way all of those are now up hundreds to thousands of percent.

@maxmay2024 People are free to do whatever they want! I personally just find $SIVE to be the most compelling CPO exposure at current prices. Not everyone shares the same conviction though.

You’re basically going from basically 0 to $81B CPO TAM next 2 years (GS note) And 10Xing the overall TAM to ~$141B? (off the top of my head). It’s more about how much these optical players can produce, not really about demand. From a fundamentals standpoint I think they’re entirely justified.

Interesting photonics selloff today on no news? $LITE down -4.95% $AAOI down -4.85% $SIVE down -14.8% $SOI down -5.73% $AXTI down -8.13% $IQE down -12.13% I think it’s probably the most compelling theme going forward (even more than power semis). Just tends to be very volatile on the way up. Surprised about $AAOI though given there’s some institutional notes apparently about long term $AMD or $NVDA agreements. (Rosenblatt). Maybe $600m ATM caps some near term upside. $SIVE as well, given EU Chips Act 2 is next week around photonics, and they’re listed on the blueprint. Same with MSCI/NASDAQ omx inflow next week. I’ve been personally adding to positions since I have high conviction in the photonics theme (CPO especially) given TAM expansion overall next 2 years.

Yeah I get a lot of requests to manage institutional capital, eg. 8 figures ready lot of times. It’s primarily capital appreciation for already wealthy folks though. At a certain point, you don’t need more money? I guess unless there’s a certain cause you want to address. I just want to help regular retail investors at this point after seeing them get shafted by bs institutional reports like $INTC $35 PTs and paywall subscriptions that I see are bs 99% of the time. And of course help dog shelters on the side.

Yep, I model financials around every stock I post, I don’t post breakdowns a lot of time to make it more digestible for retail investors to read w/o jargon. You can see my old $RPI revenue estimates modeling, I got that spot on. Same with $MU gross margin estimates before earnings, spot on. I’ve modeled $AAOI capacity ramp x ASP, from projections to derive MC estimates. A lot of the bottleneck names like $AXTI it’s impossible to model $SNDK style ASP so it’s more of an estimate on how much they can hike + how important they are.