Serenity @aleabitoreddit
Only on X, don’t trust fake accs
AI/Semi Supply Chains
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Recent trade calls
@beauty_oe Yeah! This is the first time I’m seeing $SIVE listed on EU chips act 2.
I think it’s very compelling.
$SIVE
Yeah would not be surprised to see $SIVE, $SOI, and $XFAB funding with EU Chips Act 2.
Glad to all my longs there (aside from $IQE) listed on the blueprint, I didn’t see that earlier in my research!
Looks like formal announcement got pushed back to next week though. https://t.co/2SdG4Gocql https://t.co/bnDNaTMnOz
↗ Quoting @lesantcho9306
$SIVE$SOI$XFAB$IQE
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $IQElong |
| | | | |
| $SIVElong |
| | | | |
| $SOIlong |
| | | | |
| $XFABlong |
| | | | |
@afgmantu Of course? Monopolies like $SOI don’t just disappear after they go up a few hundred percent
$SOI
@DisruptivePoltx Yeah they have close relationships with $IQE, $SOI and my other longs.
Was familiar with a lot of the private photonics companies working with $XFAB so liked it a bit more.
$IQE$SOI$XFAB
Yep, there’s a lot of interesting things going on with $XFAB in terms of European’s photonics ecosystem and existing gov funding.
Basically power semi exposure, for primary revenue growth, and silicon photonics in EU ecosystem as extra.
Regardless I like the idea of supporting and securing Western supply chains for AI.
$XFAB
$XFAB (photonics + power semis) is an interesting long idea at $1.28B MC, that I took positions in.
Given EU CHIPS act 2 is today as the catalyst for European photonics players.
> 800 VDC power semi exposure to $NVDA push through $NVTS + $POWI
> Silicon Photonics / CPO exposure with $NVDA as evaluation stage for high volume manufacturing (optical transceivers/switches)
> The only high-volume SiC foundry in the US.
> One of the critical MEMS foundries
> ~1.29 P/B, which was around what $SOI was sitting at when I went long. Depressed valuations due to legacy drag
> ~6.5-8.5 fwd p/e 2028 personal est.
> backstopped by Government:
- EU CHIPS act, $128M Euros
- US CHIPS act $50M PMT (department of commerce).
With likely more coming (just signals critical importance to Western supply chains).
So at a certain point with all the grants, they’re just getting the capex funded by the Governments.
EU CHIPS act 2 is coming out this week, and I’m gonna go ahead and guess $XFAB might get included given they were before, and this package is specifically targeting photonics.
~$1.3B MC seems compelling to me if it can pull a Soitec reversal (low p/b, very high growth segments, auto legacy drag).
As for the $NVDA silicon photonics relationships it’s under “photonixFAB”.
Markets probably missed this silicon photonics relationship (like $TSEM when I went long) with Nvidia since XFab leads this… Just under a different name.
For power semis, XFAB is named for SiC + $NVTS. In PCN-22181, $POWI explicitly names XFAB as its foundry.
Given its exposure to power semis and photonics as growth, low P/B, gov backstop (of course dyor, just sharing my personal thoughts)
Thought it personally seemed compelling.
$XFAB$NVDA$NVTS$POWI$SOI$TSEM
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $NVDAlong |
+0.8% | +1.0% | -9.3% | — | +8.8% |
| $NVTSlong |
-1.3% | +6.8% | -40.1% | — | -58.0% |
| $POWIlong |
+0.2% | -2.0% | -8.4% | — | -40.0% |
| $TSEMlong |
-0.8% | -3.6% | -10.0% | — | -13.1% |
| $SOIlong |
| | | | |
| $XFABlong |
| | | | |
@BgEdgelord $SIVE is fundamentally extremely compelling from CPO.
And all the valuation drivers are $JBL 1.6T and CPO ramp from players like Ayar.
Think those shorts turning into a long are just a cherry on top along the way.
$SIVE$JBL
I was wondering why there was an irrational amount of disinformation about $SIVE.
Turns out short sellers have been running bot farm campaigns to spread disinformation.
And likely through local news media too.
Hope they get blown apart on their short positions now.
$SIVE