DUMB//SIGNAL

Serenity @aleabitoreddit

Only on X, don’t trust fake accs AI/Semi Supply Chains NFA DYOR, no paid promos; may trade/hold names disc, views my own. Sharing free AI chokepoint research

Dumb Signal has archived 1,509 posts from Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) and classified 153 as real trade calls — each priced the day it was made and graded by direction-signed returns at 1D / 1W / 1M / 1Y, deletion-proof.

1509 tweets stored · 1108 qualifying · all first mentions all trades

Recent trade calls

@aleabitoreddit @aleabitoreddit May 27, 2026 · 05:11 ET stock
@beauty_oe Yeah! This is the first time I’m seeing $SIVE listed on EU chips act 2. I think it’s very compelling.
$SIVE
@aleabitoreddit @aleabitoreddit May 27, 2026 · 05:05 ET stock trade position
Yeah would not be surprised to see $SIVE, $SOI, and $XFAB funding with EU Chips Act 2. Glad to all my longs there (aside from $IQE) listed on the blueprint, I didn’t see that earlier in my research! Looks like formal announcement got pushed back to next week though. https://t.co/2SdG4Gocql https://t.co/bnDNaTMnOz
↗ Quoting @lesantcho9306
$SIVE$SOI$XFAB$IQE
return1D1W1M1Ynow
$IQElong
$SIVElong
$SOIlong
$XFABlong
@aleabitoreddit @aleabitoreddit May 27, 2026 · 04:00 ET stock
@afgmantu Of course? Monopolies like $SOI don’t just disappear after they go up a few hundred percent
$SOI
@aleabitoreddit @aleabitoreddit May 27, 2026 · 03:53 ET stock 1st mention
@DisruptivePoltx Yeah they have close relationships with $IQE, $SOI and my other longs. Was familiar with a lot of the private photonics companies working with $XFAB so liked it a bit more.
$IQE$SOI$XFAB
@aleabitoreddit @aleabitoreddit May 27, 2026 · 03:35 ET stock
Yep, there’s a lot of interesting things going on with $XFAB in terms of European’s photonics ecosystem and existing gov funding. Basically power semi exposure, for primary revenue growth, and silicon photonics in EU ecosystem as extra. Regardless I like the idea of supporting and securing Western supply chains for AI.
$XFAB
@aleabitoreddit @aleabitoreddit May 27, 2026 · 03:29 ET stock 1st mention trade
$XFAB (photonics + power semis) is an interesting long idea at $1.28B MC, that I took positions in. Given EU CHIPS act 2 is today as the catalyst for European photonics players. > 800 VDC power semi exposure to $NVDA push through $NVTS + $POWI > Silicon Photonics / CPO exposure with $NVDA as evaluation stage for high volume manufacturing (optical transceivers/switches) > The only high-volume SiC foundry in the US. > One of the critical MEMS foundries > ~1.29 P/B, which was around what $SOI was sitting at when I went long. Depressed valuations due to legacy drag > ~6.5-8.5 fwd p/e 2028 personal est. > backstopped by Government: - EU CHIPS act, $128M Euros - US CHIPS act $50M PMT (department of commerce). With likely more coming (just signals critical importance to Western supply chains). So at a certain point with all the grants, they’re just getting the capex funded by the Governments. EU CHIPS act 2 is coming out this week, and I’m gonna go ahead and guess $XFAB might get included given they were before, and this package is specifically targeting photonics. ~$1.3B MC seems compelling to me if it can pull a Soitec reversal (low p/b, very high growth segments, auto legacy drag). As for the $NVDA silicon photonics relationships it’s under “photonixFAB”. Markets probably missed this silicon photonics relationship (like $TSEM when I went long) with Nvidia since XFab leads this… Just under a different name. For power semis, XFAB is named for SiC + $NVTS. In PCN-22181, $POWI explicitly names XFAB as its foundry.  Given its exposure to power semis and photonics as growth, low P/B, gov backstop (of course dyor, just sharing my personal thoughts) Thought it personally seemed compelling.
$XFAB$NVDA$NVTS$POWI$SOI$TSEM
return1D1W1M1Ynow
$NVDAlong +0.8%+1.0%-9.3%—+8.8%
$NVTSlong -1.3%+6.8%-40.1%—-58.0%
$POWIlong +0.2%-2.0%-8.4%—-40.0%
$TSEMlong -0.8%-3.6%-10.0%—-13.1%
$SOIlong
$XFABlong
@aleabitoreddit @aleabitoreddit May 27, 2026 · 02:59 ET stock 1st mention
@BgEdgelord $SIVE is fundamentally extremely compelling from CPO. And all the valuation drivers are $JBL 1.6T and CPO ramp from players like Ayar. Think those shorts turning into a long are just a cherry on top along the way.
$SIVE$JBL
@aleabitoreddit @aleabitoreddit May 27, 2026 · 02:48 ET stock 1st mention
I was wondering why there was an irrational amount of disinformation about $SIVE. Turns out short sellers have been running bot farm campaigns to spread disinformation. And likely through local news media too. Hope they get blown apart on their short positions now.
$SIVE

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