Official X account for Michael Burry, MD, called "Cassandra" by Warren Buffett. Now on Substack with the full story.
Dumb Signal has archived 1,637 posts
from Cassandra Unchained (@michaeljburry) and classified
19 as real trade calls β each priced the day it was
made and graded by direction-signed returns at 1D / 1W / 1M / 1Y, deletion-proof.
@pulte SPS - Please clarify the Liquidation Preference of the Senior Preferred. Yay or nay? It is all we as $FNMA and $FMCC shareholders ask. Clarity.
$FNMA$FMCC
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $FMCClong |
-1.8% | +9.0% | -8.2% | β | -34.6% |
| $FNMAlong |
-0.2% | +14.5% | -5.3% | β | -33.8% |
SPS SPS SPS SPS SPS SPS
Please? Clarity is all we as $FNMA and $FMCC shareholders ask. https://t.co/wxZyMOZAde
β Quoting @pulte
$FNMA$FMCC
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $FMCClong |
-1.8% | +9.0% | -8.2% | β | -34.6% |
| $FNMAlong |
-0.2% | +14.5% | -5.3% | β | -33.8% |
RT @pulte: Fannie & Freddie have extraordinarily strong liquidity right now, as reflected in the strength of the MBS market and mortgage spβ¦
$FNMA$FMCC
For my 55th birthday, I am sharing Part III of my Heretic's Guide to AI for free. The whole article is unlocked, no gimmicks. Enjoy!
The Hereticβs Guide to AIβs Stars Part III: Tracepalooza & the Bezzle https://t.co/04J9gjqDBa
$META $NVDA $ORCL $MSFT $QQQ #NASDAQ #SOXX
$META$NVDA$ORCL$MSFT$QQQ
A stock falls from 100 to 10. That's a 90% decline.
The investor buys in at 10 because it is indeed worth 30.
But it has fallen so much it has become detached from the underlying business and so falls to 5.. The value investor is down 50%.
Which isn't as bad as 90%, but is still 50 effing percent.
The value investor could have sold at 8, and limited the loss.
10 years later the stock is at $30. While said nvestor gies to medical school and finsihes residency to become a surgeon.
That's a six times return in 10 years. About 20% per year.
Wait, is it not only a triple?
No, because the investor could have sold at 5 like just about everyone else did, but did not.
What I describe here is almost exactly WBD. And it didn't take 10 years, because it usually doesn't.
$WBD
Ukraineβs Minister of Defense, a big fan of Alex Karp and $PLTR, said in an interview that they have now developed their own software that is βno worseβ than Palantir, and is increasingly used instead of Palantir. He did say they still use Palantir, but he volunteered this disclosure of their own software that is replacing Palantir.
$PLTR
The last time I owned a stock as hated as $LULU was $GME in 2019.
$LULU$GME
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $GMElong |
+2.1% | -0.1% | +4.7% | β | +13.1% |
| $LULUlong |
+2.9% | +4.0% | +3.7% | β | -15.8% |
[Abridged] Software & Payments Stocks Part II: Productivity Tools and Cybersecurity
Part 2 of a 6-Part Series Covering 50 Software & Payments Stocks, Full Analysis and Ranking abridged to 2400 words from 14,000 $ADBE $ADSK $U $PANW $CRWD $DOCU $ZS $INTU
https://t.co/VWfDsspzWL
$ADBE$ADSK$U$PANW$CRWD$DOCU$ZS$INTU
The Sunday Long Read or Listen
The Hereticβs Guide to AIβs Stars Part III
Nvidiaβs $182 billion Supply Chain Gamble
MetLife Selling Out for the AI Buildout
$662 Billion Off-Balance Sheet debt among $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN $ORCL $META
https://t.co/0QxhGcWDWl
$NVDA$MSFT$GOOG$AMZN$ORCL$META
There are good reasons for this Jim. It is all Fugazi. How to make tens of $billions worth of $NVDA GPUs disappear from balance sheets in 8-12 byzantine stepspvs. https://t.co/FOqrtdbLD8 https://t.co/p0U9CdX6bk
β Quoting @jimcramer
$NVDA
@jimcramer There are good reasons for this Jim. It is all Fugazi. How to make tens of $billions worth of $NVDA GPUs disappear from balance sheets in 8-12 byzantine stepspvs.
$NVDA
Free to anyone interested.
Part IV of the Hereticβs Guide to AIβ Stars is coming along nicely. In light of the news today about Apolloβs $38 billion debt raise for $GOOG TPUs (not $NVDA GPUs) for Anthropic, I have decided to pre-release one visual from Part IV. Enjoy.
$GOOG$NVDA
AI Demand, Offshore Financing & Compression Too
The Hereticβs Guide to AIβs Stars Part III
In either case, this is a set up on the down low for a wicked bullwhip.
$NVDA $MSFT $META $NOW $WDAY $PLTR $AMZN $APO $MET $ORCL
https://t.co/0QxhGcWDWl
$NVDA$MSFT$META$NOW$WDAY$PLTR$AMZN$APO$MET$ORCL
New Short Thoughts - Patterns, NVIDIA's Settled State, and Hong Kong Crackdown
There is another angle that I did not discuss in Part III, and it directly addresses current misinformation on demand, the highly leveraged financing of the buildout, and both the mechanism and timing for the AI narrative to come to Jesus. I spent most of this weekend expanding this thesis from the cutting room floor of The Hereticβs Guide Part III, and I cannot wait to share it with you.
$NVDA
Credit, where credit is due.
"The public swipes Palantir executives are taking at the quality of work coming from the AI labs these days reflect a concern increasingly familiar to the American worker: Palantir is at risk of being replaced, or at least rendered less necessary,
$PLTR
Great commentary yet again from BTIGβs Jonathan Krinsky
β’Party Like It's 1999. In 1999, the best performing Nasdaq 100 stock was Qualcomm (QCOM, not rated), up 2600%. The best rolling 52-wk return for QCOM during the entire dot-com bubble was 2600%, so SNDK is beating that by 1300bps. Interestingly, the second-best stock in 1999 was SNDK up 581%.
β’More Extreme. If we look at the top 10 performing NDX stocks in 1999, they were up an average of 559%. The top 10 in the year leading up to 3/24/00 were up an average of 622%. The top 10 NDX names over the last year are up an average of 784%, beating both the dot-com periods..
$QCOM$SNDK
New Trading Post today. Palantir, Hong Kong, SOXX, Australia, etc
https://t.co/ZjU2nRBnKk
$PLTR$SOXX
This Ryan Cohen interview on eBay is a good one.
Interview starts at 1:33:33
https://t.co/ozkjkXILhm
$EBAY
$PLTR at $137 and with that $350+ billion fully diluted market cap you can still buy Northrop Grumman $NOC, General Dynamics $GD and Lockheed Martin $LMT, and have enough left over for L3Harris $LHX.
Or you could buy every single one of my 38 GameStop $GME acquisition alternatives PLUS Lockheed Martin.
$PLTR$NOC$GD$LMT$LHX$GME
GameStop Makes Its Play
$56 Billion for eBay, Makes Perfect Sense
https://t.co/Wk6q9MqqCn
$GME $EBAY
$GME$EBAY
It is not too late @ryancohen
$GME , a list of alternatives from February 2nd:
$NXST 6.3B
$SAM 2.3B
$SFM 6.9B
$W 14B
$BRKR 7B
$MOH 10B
$BIRK 7B
$SFM 6.9B
$SLM 5.5B
$NAVI 1B
$FMCC 4.8B
$FNMA 9.7B
$DOM LN 1B
$FND 7.4B
$POOL 9.5B
$KNSL 9.2B
$NEU 6.3B
$FTDR 4.3B
$DOM 14B
$OSIS
$GME$NXST$SAM$SFM$W$BRKR$MOH$BIRK$SLM$NAVI$FMCC$FNMA$DOM$FND$POOL$KNSL$NEU$FTDR$OSIS
My thoughts on $GME play for $eBay, with an analytic comparison to my February hypothetical.
https://t.co/gxLQM7ZfTK
$GME$EBAY
$GME and $EBAY. Makes perfect sense.
$GME$EBAY
Dwarkesh nailed it. Jensen squirmed and obfuscated. This was shocking to me. Every $NVDA bull needs to watch this with an unbiased eye.. https://t.co/GpLVdP74g1
β Quoting @dwarkesh_sp
$NVDA
Open Letter on Housing, Fannie & Freddie
@realDonaldTrump @pulte @SecScottBessent @FHFA @USTreasury $fnma $FMCC
We studied housing square footage per capita adequacy, and found that there is no problem there. The US in fact has more residential square footage per capita than
$FNMA$FMCC