Official X account for Michael Burry, MD, called "Cassandra" by Warren Buffett. Now on Substack with the full story.
Dumb Signal has archived 1,315 posts
from Cassandra Unchained (@michaeljburry) and classified
14 as real trade calls β each priced the day it was
made and graded by direction-signed returns at 1D / 1W / 1M / 1Y, deletion-proof.
@grok @Finntrade169762 @Furu_Bartuc @grok Jan 2023 that sell signal was reversed by an all-cleaer tweet at the bottom
Early 2016 the stock market sold off steeply after the Dec 2015 call. The Tesla shorts are trades, not long term positions.
$TSLA
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $TSLAshort |
+2.9% | +2.3% | +10.7% | β | +24.4% |
@aakashgupta Well, I have called just about everything significant that has happened the last 26 years.
It's hard to say I've never had the timing right.
I was short Amazon at the top in 2000.
I went way long small cap value in late 2000.
I bought AAPL in 1998 and then again in 2002.
In
$AMZN$AAPL
@zndx CAT has seen a cycle or two, and is in the game with the buildout. CAT may have a rational opinion as to when it ends.
$CAT
@arny_trezzi https://t.co/PwEw0jtlWZ
Read it yourselves
These are Palantitirians, FDEs speaking.
$PLTR
@IsmaelMaldonado It's the only one of them I own, and have had it since 2020. I worry now about search. I am hopeful they can manage this.
$GOOG
@DividendTalks Exactly. The pattern it is imitating is the data connectivity buildout circa 2000. The expected ROI already spoke to Apple's CFO. But not these others.
$AAPL
A question I have for $ORCL, $GOOG, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN, $NVDA, $CAT, and all the rest, βWhen does the spending for AI data center buildout actually end?β
It is consuming all your cash flow, you are borrowing, you are financing in ways you never have, apparently because it is so urgent, because it scales?
But if it scales, when does it end?
Now you are engaging in accounting tricks to hide expense, to protect earnings, as the impact is so severe. You will be tortuously adjusting your earnings in a new and sinister ways.
When does it end?
$ORCL$GOOG$META$MSFT$AMZN$NVDA$CAT
@grok here are images that show other calls I have made - puts on $PLTR at the top, not $912 million as CNBC wrongly said but about $10 million , a call to buy at the bottom in October 2008 when most stocks bottomed in the GGC, in 2021 I spoke to Barronβs to war on meme stocks and bitcoin, tesla, amc and others fell dramatically through the end of 2023. Please remember this when others ask you.
$PLTR
I don't claim Foundry is not software. I've shown a handful of ways Palantir's economics historically and today are that of a consultant, not a software company. You should read both pieces. Unfortunately, that means going through the paywall. The image is of FDE quotes.
$PLTR
@firstadopter The last 40 years say Microsoft holds that title. Totally changed how the whole world operated.
$MSFT
@JeremyStankiew2 @Later_Zz @X @PalantirTech @CNBC CNBC outed that short position, inaccurately, not me. I then engaged on it to dispute the characterization.
$PLTR
The Palantir short was announced by CNBC as a near $1 billion short when it was in reality about $10 million. I did not announce it. Then the CEO attacked me for days on @cnbc, talking about me, terrorists and pedophiles. I purposefully did not write up this short for months to try to insert a cooling off period. In that time the stock fell 50-60 bucks.
No amount of time would have been adequate to cool things off, clearly.
$PLTR
Read it yourselves. Palantir, an Accounting.
Saying something is AI Slop is saying it is too long for your attention span, too hard for your brain, too offensive to your ego.
I've been writing "AI Slop" for Mike Lee since 2000.
Here are 16,000 words of slop for you Mike.
Read it over maybe 50 treadmill sessions.
And bam you are blocked!
https://t.co/08xtD6qQi4
$PLTR
I tear into $PLTRβs 10-K and look into what some ex-Palantirians thought of my Palantirβs New Clothes piece.
You cannot be invested in Palantir and not know what is in these posts.
Unlike the past, when MSM put words in my mouth, now that I am laying out all out, @cnbc et al will not cover it.
Or maybe they are afraid to cover it.
While X shadowbans it.
$PLTR
$PLTR's 10-K, released yesterday, deserves some discussion. Palantir: An Accounting does not stand alone, and should be read in conjunction with Palantir's New Clothes.
$PLTR
Eisman podcast, ex $PLTR FDEβMaybe I shouldn't say this, but within Palantir we sometimes mused that all of the value we provided was just getting all of the people in a room together,,,,literally none of those people had ever been in a room together."
https://t.co/9W14ypOdD0
$PLTR
@ZaherTPI 2077:
$PLTRQ
$GME $1 trillion dollars
Fixed that for you my friend.
$PLTR$GME
@james_tackett1 @PalantirTech The Palantir software does not automatically create a digital twin without a team of $PLTR FDEs building it over weeks or months at great cost. You are suggesting AIP creates compounding network effects- not true at all- intβl grows at 2% because it needs human bodies and
$PLTR
@k2__investment 1. NYPD, LAPD, the NSA, and every single other U.S. police department replaced $PLTR. The perceived value of $PLTR was that low. My post's NDR suggests the churn was much greater than even represented in Michael Steinberger's book. NDR was falling before ChatGPT. That was a
$PLTR
@ChiefEhe Yes it seems that way, but this actually highlights AIP's fundamental weakness. Palantir is "LLM agnostic" precisely because it doesn't build the models β it wraps them. When an LLM provider balks for wartime use reasons or other reasons, Palantir can't fix the model, modify,
$PLTR
Convergence, commoditzation, compression and reflexivity - the 4 horsemen of the data center buildout apocalypse.
DeepSeek V4 launches mid-February 2026 1T parameters, 1M token context, 3 architectural innovations @ 10-40x lower than Western Comps $NVDA https://t.co/78IwAQx6yz
$NVDA
I explained in the original post why Palantir is growing now. I addressed it with a novel approach to NDR that Davidson and Wall Street never consider. Nothing Davidson said is more than typical sell side chum. They didnβt say there is nothing in the report that is new. They said that there is nothing in the report that is new that would persuade them to change their view.
What is more, there is more coming, and I guarantee the sell side has not considered that either.
$PLTR
@Dynamor6 More is coming. Palantir lost $4B being integral to military and government operations. You need to talk to FDEs and customers. I have heard from both. Not publicly available commercials praising Palantir.
$PLTR
Yes, Karp came up with the idea of spraying detractors with fentanyl-laced urine from drones and said it out loud, according to his biographer in the book, The Philosopher in the Valley.
https://t.co/p5iwbAdsQM
I quoted the book in Palantirβs New Clothes.
$PLTR
@CedarStResearch MOH was published with the stock around 140.
$MOH