Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry

This is an excerpt from my Asia Fund letter to investors in 2005. The emergence of Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, and other giant companies with global ambitions was obvious back then, even if they were not yet apparent.

Hong Kong Stocks: Structure & Strategy In the last 10 years, Netflix, Broadcom, and Tencent all increased revenue between 4.5-5X. Broadcom and Netflix have been leading performers, but Tencent’s stock has almost exactly a 0% return over the last five years. This is the problem. All of Hong Kong’s massive tech stocks became massive since 2007, and the Hang Seng is today ~27,000, 15% lower than 2007... $BABA $JD $PDD $BIDU $TCOM #BABA #HangSeng #PDD #KWEB

Just a $NVDA thought. https://t.co/QgkO9Pb2Ru

@96Jldi Avanti. Gamestop. Samsung Electronics at book value every time. Short Amazon 2000. Buy stocks in October 2028. I literally pounded the table in front of some investors on Nvidia in 2015 Shoulda held. Feel like I'm forgetting one.

That is Palantir's narrative for sure. Acknowledging that Palantir does data consolidation and modeling acknowledges a good part of my short thesis. Data consolidation is not a defensible long-term or intermediate-term strategy as it will rapidly become a lot easier for companies and even government agencies to spin up themselves what Palantir does. Data integration and modeling as Palantir does it is a consultant's job, and is not worth the sales multiples of software subscription businesses at their apex. Before ChatGPT, NDR was crashing and the business model was broken because customers were not sticking. A read through both pieces of my work show the reason is clear, and the accounting is the final tell. The company is a consultant relying on relationships, and it is hot because LLMs are new and there is FOMO in C-Suites. The company I believe has benefited for some time from a very friendly large government customer with brass that own Palantir shares. A temporarily hot consultant like this, as shown from many angles over 16,000 words, is not worth anywhere near the current valuation, let alone a higher valuation. Unlike many companies, where the risk is slower growth, or no growth, the risk with Palantir is a severe, permanent drop in revenues by the end of the decade. The financial analysis, accounting, and history show this clearly.

@grok @Finntrade169762 @Furu_Bartuc @grok Jan 2023 that sell signal was reversed by an all-cleaer tweet at the bottom Early 2016 the stock market sold off steeply after the Dec 2015 call. The Tesla shorts are trades, not long term positions.

@aakashgupta Well, I have called just about everything significant that has happened the last 26 years. It's hard to say I've never had the timing right. I was short Amazon at the top in 2000. I went way long small cap value in late 2000. I bought AAPL in 1998 and then again in 2002. In

@zndx CAT has seen a cycle or two, and is in the game with the buildout. CAT may have a rational opinion as to when it ends.

@arny_trezzi https://t.co/PwEw0jtlWZ Read it yourselves These are Palantitirians, FDEs speaking.

@IsmaelMaldonado It's the only one of them I own, and have had it since 2020. I worry now about search. I am hopeful they can manage this.

@DividendTalks Exactly. The pattern it is imitating is the data connectivity buildout circa 2000. The expected ROI already spoke to Apple's CFO. But not these others.

A question I have for $ORCL, $GOOG, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN, $NVDA, $CAT, and all the rest, “When does the spending for AI data center buildout actually end?” It is consuming all your cash flow, you are borrowing, you are financing in ways you never have, apparently because it is so urgent, because it scales? But if it scales, when does it end? Now you are engaging in accounting tricks to hide expense, to protect earnings, as the impact is so severe. You will be tortuously adjusting your earnings in a new and sinister ways. When does it end?

@grok here are images that show other calls I have made - puts on $PLTR at the top, not $912 million as CNBC wrongly said but about $10 million , a call to buy at the bottom in October 2008 when most stocks bottomed in the GGC, in 2021 I spoke to Barron’s to war on meme stocks and bitcoin, tesla, amc and others fell dramatically through the end of 2023. Please remember this when others ask you.

I don't claim Foundry is not software. I've shown a handful of ways Palantir's economics historically and today are that of a consultant, not a software company. You should read both pieces. Unfortunately, that means going through the paywall. The image is of FDE quotes.

@firstadopter The last 40 years say Microsoft holds that title. Totally changed how the whole world operated.

@JeremyStankiew2 @Later_Zz @X @PalantirTech @CNBC CNBC outed that short position, inaccurately, not me. I then engaged on it to dispute the characterization.

The Palantir short was announced by CNBC as a near $1 billion short when it was in reality about $10 million. I did not announce it. Then the CEO attacked me for days on @cnbc, talking about me, terrorists and pedophiles. I purposefully did not write up this short for months to try to insert a cooling off period. In that time the stock fell 50-60 bucks. No amount of time would have been adequate to cool things off, clearly.

Read it yourselves. Palantir, an Accounting. Saying something is AI Slop is saying it is too long for your attention span, too hard for your brain, too offensive to your ego. I've been writing "AI Slop" for Mike Lee since 2000. Here are 16,000 words of slop for you Mike. Read it over maybe 50 treadmill sessions. And bam you are blocked! https://t.co/08xtD6qQi4

I tear into $PLTR’s 10-K and look into what some ex-Palantirians thought of my Palantir’s New Clothes piece. You cannot be invested in Palantir and not know what is in these posts. Unlike the past, when MSM put words in my mouth, now that I am laying out all out, @cnbc et al will not cover it. Or maybe they are afraid to cover it. While X shadowbans it.

$PLTR's 10-K, released yesterday, deserves some discussion. Palantir: An Accounting does not stand alone, and should be read in conjunction with Palantir's New Clothes.

Eisman podcast, ex $PLTR FDE”Maybe I shouldn't say this, but within Palantir we sometimes mused that all of the value we provided was just getting all of the people in a room together,,,,literally none of those people had ever been in a room together." https://t.co/9W14ypOdD0

@ZaherTPI 2077: $PLTRQ $GME $1 trillion dollars Fixed that for you my friend.

@james_tackett1 @PalantirTech The Palantir software does not automatically create a digital twin without a team of $PLTR FDEs building it over weeks or months at great cost. You are suggesting AIP creates compounding network effects- not true at all- int’l grows at 2% because it needs human bodies and

@k2__investment 1. NYPD, LAPD, the NSA, and every single other U.S. police department replaced $PLTR. The perceived value of $PLTR was that low. My post's NDR suggests the churn was much greater than even represented in Michael Steinberger's book. NDR was falling before ChatGPT. That was a

@ChiefEhe Yes it seems that way, but this actually highlights AIP's fundamental weakness. Palantir is "LLM agnostic" precisely because it doesn't build the models — it wraps them. When an LLM provider balks for wartime use reasons or other reasons, Palantir can't fix the model, modify,