Serenity @aleabitoreddit

@MichaelMartocci Congrats, the SK Hynix + memory rise was goated. Yeah, I think the ability to stomach volatility is what separates investors from the rest.

@kapo52277 @neruda_de Agility is ~$3.9B premoney valuation, which is compelling to me as is. Not all SPACs work that way as seen with $BRUN, which is why I’m personally not waiting.

Let’s put it this way: Retail thinks a 30-60% drop is a “falling knife” where bagholders will never recover. And they end up panic selling after seeing swiggly line TAs and people comparing valuable chokepoints to memes. I see it as long term ownership over: - the next hyperscaler with $NBIS, projecting $7-9B ARR Q4 - 40% of the InP supply chain with $AXTI - leader of the next optical shift with $SIVE with CW DFB lasers - leader of US humanoids with $CCXI inside a future trillion dollar theme And so on… At cheaper valuations. While I might do things like lowering margin or hedging with my own portfolio, I’m personally not panicking when something drops if the thesis didn’t change. NFA and obviously depends on people’s investing timeframes: Since a crash would be life changing for people that depend on investing for rent or tuition. (Which is why I personally think others should do their own DD and choose longs in line with their own risk profile) But my personal goal is maximizing exposure to the next-gen supercycles before they hit. I think institutions think the same way as well, which is why there’s a lot of induced volatility along the way to maximize their exposure. If a thesis ends up correct, the valuation should be reflected in the long run.

@lucas_SPACs idk Spacemob hasn't been doing too well over the past year compared to bottleneck bros. I think it's mainly just opportunity cost, even if I like $ASTS long term.

For this type of mapping with $SIVE, it's a good idea look at their partners and their timelines. - $JBL confirmed via JPM fireside chat they have a relatively dramatic moat with their 1.6T LRO and are getting qualified done over next 1-4 months (2 months ago). So should be August 2026 to March 2027 timeframes for qual completion, then mass prod start with Sivers in pluggables. - $AEVA are targeting HVM prob q4 2026, $POET is starting off production H2 2026 but probably later in H1 should kick off more. O-Net, Ayar, $GFS and others are somewhere in 2027 I think and that's more along the lines of CPO timelines rather than $SIVE per say. Very confident in terms of execution, since $SIVE has a technical + qualification moat into many different hyperscaler supplier sources. And everyone is incentivized to produce as much as possible, with Sivers as the laser supplier. Not including likely names like $AAPL in 2028. How both the $SIVE CEO and $JBL stated it is: It's more about how much they can make rather than looking at competition (cause demand is so high + different chokepoints are bottlenecked). For me personally, it's just waiting for things to play out. The main area of interest is downstream IP acquisition for TAM expansion, so I think that opportunity pipeline undersells forward growth going forward.

Blue Origin reportedly raising $10B at a $130B valuation per NYT. Seems pretty positive for $RKLB, $ASTS, and other space names in terms of relative valuation anchoring. If SpaceX and Blue Origin is able to set such high valuations.

I mean I’m pretty confident memory and AI names recover just cause of the whopping amount of operating profit/growth they have. I don’t think there’s anything fundamentally wrong, especially after the Samsung earnings. Just a pretty wild deleveraging/margin cascade right now across the board with many things crashing 30-60% already. Short term option traders and 2.5x margin bros were probably wiped.

Basically: > major Chinese lidar player might be banned in West. > $OUST, $AEVA, and others benefit by filling in the vacuum > optical players players that power western lidar players like Aeva also benefit from increased revenue Not sure if this news really matters given everything is crashing though.

Hesai Technology, a Chinese lidar maker faces US national scrutiny over its expanded partnership with $NVDA and lidar sensors. For $OUST, $AEVA, and Western lidar bros, this is generally positive if competitors get regulated out. Since there were warnings that: Sensors could be disabled or exploited remotely, given Hesai firmware update disabled lidar units on February 29 (as evidence). By second order effect, this is also bullish for upstream laser suppliers too like $LITE and $SIVE that are used in western lidar players.

Just Bloomberg and $META doing damage control after crashing the market with Meta Compute framing: Spokesperson: "Meta is still hungry for even more computing power. It is still moving forward with plans for expensive new data centers and recently inked major computing deals with $CRVW, Google, $ORCL, and others." Just dropped that in with the Meta Muse announcement, and evenn threw in the "expensive" framing with DCs to signal capex. But little late given we're likely seeing a lot of margin liquidation cascades and heavy losses from media framing earlier.

Literally just Elon. - The guy + $SPCX is basically the only reason why US is in the lead with Space. - $TSLA led EV commercialization in US He's sometimes off with timeframes, but right directionally, so pretty sure he can make US robotics #1 again. I personally own $CCXI though since I think Agility currently has more pure play exposure for mass production/commercialization through US supply chains + $MELI/ $AMZN.

How is the US so far behind? Xinhua: China's output of humanoids are expected to hit 100,000+ this year. Even Morgan Stanley originally projected 14,000 for 2026... Really need Elon's $TSLA, $CCXI (Agility), Apptronik, and Figure to catchup. And for more US Gov. subsidies to pour into upstream supply chains + rare earths. Cause this disparity between US vs. China mass production is getting ridiculous... But it almost feels like the start of Russia/US Space race Sputnik Moment for robotics?

Imagine every single time you post. You have a TA bro posting a chart about: - b-but my $IREN ABC trend says it's going to $125 through the $6B ATM. - or if something drops, someone quote posts you saying "Should have listened to my $40 paywalled XYZ charts" Or if I post a new name they draw random swiggly lines any direction to convince people to sell, then try to sell a course on top of that that. They end up wrong, but just silently ignores that fact when they draw a new swiggly line the next day to sell if they're right.

@EUlmsten wow the mythical golden egg dragon candle was spotted over the $SIVEF chart. Something big is coming...

This is the average visual TA bro, takes a 50% 50% coinflip: If it goes the other way, they say "ABC Pattern Invalidated", should have known... If they get the coinflip right, they promote their $40/month chart. -> People drawing swiggly lines over KOSPI mean nothing where it heads. When it's primarily Samsung/SK Hynix and forward operating income growth from DRAM/NAND. -> The swiggly drawing over $SIVE, $AEHR, and others mean nothing. When it's primarily hyperscaler suppliers, thematic premiums, and volume ramp orders determining valuations. Then if something randomly goes from $1 to $60 like $AXTI, they claim they spotted it with their "Golden Egg Dragon Candle", while ignoring anything with InP substrate and otpical demand. There's rare times like these where it's a massive sector drop all together. But now the TA bros are showing up everywhere saying here's a $40 course on how they predicted it with swiggly lines.

@WLinvestment This might be news to you, but swiggly lines on a chart is not fundamentals. And has nothing to do with operating income growth that Samsung/Sk Hynix make

I personally think so. It feels like markets started selling off after that misleading Bloomberg $META compute article, and a couple of SemiAnalysis bear posts on $NVDA supply chains. Since algos + headline interpretation of “Meta excess compute” was cutting capex + dropping out of AI race. Combine that with excess leverage and here we are. Probably just takes an earnings call and few Trump tweets to get back to normal… But after some names already dropped 40-60% feels like it should bottom soon. Reversals the other way are pretty violent too.

$SIVE is probably my favorite stocks right now, not concerned about short term drops. - You have the laser supplier to $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, and many other hyperscaler suppliers. - NASDAQ listing planned in the next few quarters - Followed by M&A goals for TAM expansion. And it's literally trading less than $POET for some reason. All while CW lasers are extremely bottlenecked to the point $LITE can't make enough. Then they got a considerable amount of oversubscribed funding for fabless laser ramp recently. Comfortable long for me, probably one of the stocks that way overshot selloff imo.

@jd_tradez Samsung: becomes most profitable company in the world today at a $1.3T valuation. retail: "The AI trade is over"

Just putting it out there: If everything crashes together from $NBIS, $MRVL, $INTC, $SNDK, $AMD, $SIVE, $MU, $LITE, and others... Which are all down -4% to -10%+ today so far. Probably doesn't have anything to do with individual fundamentals. Indiscriminate selloffs from things like cascading margin liquidations, usually provide compelling opportunities if the underlying improves.

Raymond James initiated coverage of $SPCX with “Strong Buy”. Giving it a $800 PT, valuing SpaceX at a ~$10T valuation. No words. Jokes about “institutional” notes for retail write themselves.

Be Samsung at $1.24T: > market: we don’t think you can keep hiking memory prices > proceeds to hikes dram by 20% > releases earnings > most profitable company in the world beating $NVDA and $AAPL > operating profits growing 1803% Y/Y market: sells off Samsung -7%

One of the dumbest thematic selloffs I’ve seen to to date off: - $META compute news that’s not new - CPO delay report 1, that got refuted by $NVDA - CPO delay report 2, that got refuted by $NVDA High confidence, institutions will end up going long on the same names they’re bearposting after retail capitulates.

@platochi Yeah, $NBIS also had a painful like 5 months of chopping after they projected something crazy like $7B ARR by Q4 2026 earnings. Makes you doubt sometimes

@TW_trades_ Was losing my mind over $RDDT's blowout quarter, just to see chopping for the longest time. But glad it played out well.