Serenity @aleabitoreddit

$AMD reached out directly to hand me some special swag! Apparently they only made 30 of these bandanas? I love AMD and Lisa Su now.

I have this feeling that Lisa from $AMD likes AI. It’s cool getting to meet some of you at the event!

$INTC and $AMD to sign CPU LTAs with Chinese customers for AI DCs (Reuters). - Prices of some CPU products have risen more than 40% in China since the start of the year from sources. - Month-on-month increases topping 10% for some products CPUs were already a bottleneck, following CPU ratios due to AI inference... But the broader trend of LTAs seems to be appearing from: - Memory, with $MU, Samsung, $SNDK, and SK Hynix signing DRAM/NAND LTAs. - Photonics, with $LITE, $COHR signing EML LTAs. And recent Trendforce reports that $AMD and hyperscalers are now pursuing CW LTAs. And I'm sure there's many more from MLCCs to all the way to substrates. +1 for the bottleneck investors... hard to be a "bubble that pops" if you have take or pay demand spanning multiple years.

Just some notes from $TSLA transcripts: Elon Musk: "I think Optimus will be the biggest product ever" from Q2 earnings transcripts. Even from Q1, Elon Stated: "I think Optimus will be our biggest product. Not just Tesla's biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever. And I remain convinced of that conclusion". It's very rare to see such high conviction reiterated from Elon regarding humanoids both directionally and TAM-wise. In terms of upstream suppliers opportunities, Karn Budhiraj, VP of $TSLA supply chains stated: "We’re seeing the same level of investment going to memory and also new specific items like metal injection molded parts, flexible printed circuits, and all sorts of nonlinear technologies..." And that they had to build new supply chains from scratch. So would be interesting to look at for new supply chain supplier opportunities apart from the known ones. Just pulled older slides and it looks like capacity targets for Fremont are 1M and Giga Texas was 10M, so at scale, $TSLA seems to be the clear US leader. If you're looking at that S-Curve opportunity ramp. On a side note, Elon also gave a shoutout to $MU with likely reasonably priced LTAs, given his statement: "We really appreciate Micron making room for Tesla in the years to come and giving us actually a very significant allocation on reasonable terms given the pretty insane pricing of memory these days." (Just for structural memory demand). Elon also gave a shoutout to Panasonic which had invested many billions in increasing battery cell production (will need to do deeper DD into Panasonic after this), then Samsung and $TSM. Just takeaways from Tesla earnings TLDR: Elon tends to be directionally correct on where the future is heading, such as with EV or Space. He seems extremely bullish on humanoids.

Having an iota of reading comphrension helps a bit before commenting. AI Capex -> goes to upstream semis from memory, photonics, foundries, and others. These players are happy. $GOOGL itself is spending the money, so markets might not like that for them in specific. But it's positive to the players that receive that capital.

$GOOGL updates FY 2026 capex guidance: To $195B-$205B. Up from $180B-$190B. Google is also expected to significantly increase capex in 2027. This is perhaps the most bullish read through on upstream semis from a hyperscaler.

@4intheflames $GOOGL stock down a solid -.079%.

$GOOGL now has 950M monthly Gemini users and processes 22B API tokens/min. Compared to 750M back in February. Absurd growth adding 200 million more users in a few months. Kinda explains why they ran out of compute, then cut allocations to $META and others. Very unlikely AI capex will slow down given.

$GOOGL reported earnings today: EPS: $9.11 actual vs $2.91 expected - retail reactions to EPS blowout is kinda just accounting noise, since $SPCX, Anthropic, and others were likely large contributors. Revenue: $119.7B actual vs. $116.98B expected Google Cloud Revenue: $24.77B +82% Y/Y, vs. 63-65% expected ($22.2-$22.6B) - this is a very large beat and most material part so far. Cloud Operating Income: ~$8.81B, implying 35.6% margin vs. 32.9% Q1. Capex: $44.92B vs ~$44.15B (basically in line). So initial read through is Google Cloud accelerating growth with expanding margins is genuinely bullish for AI demand. Their former $180-$190B capex guidance is already extremely large, and as long as we get around these numbers in the earnings call + forward projections... Should be good to go for $LITE and the other optics/networking trade. (eg. last earnings, they said DC and networking would be ~40% of capex spend). Hyperscaler earnings transcripts are probably the most important thing to pay attention to with the AI capex trade. And that should be in 3 minutes.

@gaetan_po Yeah, I’m testing some things right now for bot prevention. Also going to $AMD event tomorrow rather than full 2 days, will definitely be asking about $SIVE!

$AMD to invest $5B in Anthropic. Anthropic in turn will sign a 2 GW deal to buy AMD’s latest chips, worth tens of billions of dollars. Looks like they’re copying the $NVDA playbook with Anthropic last year.

$SIVE CEO buys 70K shares today. I don’t really comment much on insider buying/selling, since it’s not exactly a fundamental catalyst. But given the company’s future is dependent on the CEO’s vision + execution, from NASDAQ listing, M&A, to scaling: It’s extremely positive to have Vickram be completely aligned with the shareholders

Wow, a historic single day recovery. $SIVEF +30.89% $IQEF +28.6% $AEHR +26.53% $CIFR +17.82% $NBIS +17.3% $AAOI +15.6% $LPK +14.48% $AXTI +14.12% $MU +12.54% $SNDK +12.8% $SOI +11.1% $TSEM +10.39% $LITE +9.25% $INTC +8.22% $AMD +8.11% $MRVL +7.27%

@CarterChen18 Think $AMD was in talks of being a customer of $AAOI, from Rosenblatt channel checks. Could be an option, I'll ask around in the event.

It's slightly more nuanced. Basically, $AMD SF event is tomorrow, Wed/Thurs (July 22, 23). From Jefferies client note, AMD is expected to provide additional disclosures around their likely scale-up CPO roadmap + MI500. If they confirm CPO route, would positive thematically since it's not just $NVDA forcing the transition. As for $SIVE, we'll get a better read if they're directly in AMD supply chains. Since right now, it's possible to map it through $GFS (reportedly involved in AMD MI500 CPO work) or AYAR (which AMD invested in). But no formal confirmations. So if you're turning in: - CPO thematic positive: MI500 explicitly commits to CPO/optical UALink. - AMD gives details using Ayar Labs or GF SCALE for MI500 CPO: That would be extremely positive for $SIVE, given they're the upstream laser supplier / reference laser. Currently, Blayne Curtis from Jefferies expect AMD to work with $ALAB on UAL and $AVGO on ESUN... but juicy details are here: "We are looking for whether AMD commits to a CPO based scale up solution and who supplies the optical engine" We'll get a broader read through on the supply chain come Wednesday/Thursday, too early to tell today.

Memory names from Kioxia finished up a whopping +17.18%. Samsung up +6.15%. Optical networking from $SIVE, $LITE, and $AAOI are showing signs of recovery, all up 4%+. Neoclouds from $NBIS to $IREN all up 4%+ premarket. $INTC to $AMD to $MRVL all up 4%+. Does the Cramer effect work on the entire AI trade?

If you’re curious why $NBIS is up after hours. $NVDA disclosed it owns 9.3% beneficial ownership of Nebius via SEC filings. Not exactly too new since it dates back to Nvidia’s existing share position of 1.19M shares + $2B prefunded warrant of ~21M shares. But great for sentiment having Nvidia be a large shareholder of the Neocloud leader.

$IREN +19.69% after revising ARR target to $4B+ from new AI cloud contracts. Its customer base now includes Microsoft, Nvidia, Perplexity, and Figure. $HUT +10.45% off a 15Y $9.8B AI DC lease $CIFR +16.76% $CLSK +13.7% $WYFI +9.18% $NBIS and $CRWV are taking their time in the shower. But does look like Neoclouds/Colo players are sharply recovering following new catalysts, such as Kimi compute shortage news and new contracts.

Some updates on bottleneck timelines: - ABF substrates: 1 year / eg. Ajinomoto (2802) for ABF film, Ibiden, Unimicron, Nan Ya PCB, etc make the substrates - HDI Boards: Over 6 months / Victory Giant (300476), Zhen Ding (4958), Unimicron, Compeq (2313), Meiko (6787) - Multilayer boards: ~6 months / Victory Giant, WUS (002463), $TTMI, Gold Circuit Electronics (2368), - CCL: Over 6 months (severe shortages of materials) / Elite Material (2383), Shengyi (600183), TUC (6274), ITEQ (6213), Nan Ya Plastics (1303), Resonac (4004) Mitsui Kinzoku (5706) / HVLP copper foil. Nittobo / glass fiber/cloth - MLCCs, chip resistors, tantalum capacitors, aluminum electrolytic capacitors: 15-20 weeks to 1 year+ MLCC: Murata (6981), Samsung Electro-Mechanics, TDK (6762), Taiyo Yuden (6976), Yageo (2327), Walsin (2492) Chip Resistors: Yageo, Walsin, KOA (6999), Rohm (6963) and $VSH Tantalum capacitors: Kyocera/AVX, Yageo/KEMET, $VSH again Aluminum electrolytic capacitors: Nippon Chemi-Con (6997) Nichicon (6996) | Timelines sourced from Digitimes, did the honors of adding in related companies. But it's slightly more nuanced since MLCCs and others mix. in commodity types vs. AI DCs. Regardless, just some helpful mapping.

@syl_52 I'm not posting anything actionable here. Just giving people a heads up on about ADR timeline conversion for SK Hynix on the 29th. And that it's likely premiums might converge if institutions decide to arbitrage.

- Sk Hynix mainly traded in Korea - $SKHY lists in the US with limited shares, ~2.5% of the float (this is called ADR) - Even though SK Hynix are the same company, the shares trade independently. - Sk Hynix US traded at a 20-50% premium to SK Hynix Korean listing due to limited supply, but lot of US demand. -> ADRs allow for conversion between Korea Shares to US Shares, and conversion will start on the 29th - If you convert 22.5% of the Korean supply to the US, that 20-50% premium is likely to go down eg. If there's limited mangos, and someone pays $3 for mangos. You buy the same mango for $1. You keep buying those $1 mangos and selling for $3 until the mangos pricing converge. That's called arbitrage and what likely traders would do.

For anyone watching the 25%+ premium in $SKHY versus SK Hynix's Korean shares: The ADRs and local shares become convertible on July 29. Should open the door for arbitrage and likely compress the ADR premium. Maybe lifting Korean shares or pressuring US shares. 2.5% currently is the US ADR stock, so an additional 22.5% can be converted.

If $AAOI are projecting $1.4B a quarter q3 2027 ($471m/month), which is $5.6B revenue annualized, (targeting 40%+ gaap gross margins). And they’re a $8B MC… Or if personal $SIVE CW Win capacity projections are around ~$400m midpoint array revenue off 60% gross margins. And that’s a $1B MC. Just applying a low 20 fwd p/e might rerate optical names considerably. Even with other names like $LITE, they’re completely sold out for the next 2 years, and having that sort of demand visibility… Is not a bubble. Europeans tend to use TTM to value companies while optical names are 2027-2028 growth stories.

The nice thing about X is seeing cultural differences: I get a bunch of sidelined European accounts up 2% YTD off bank saving interest. Coming out of hibernation, and saying all along that investing in $AAOI for photonics or Samsung for memory is considered gambling. And celebrating when everything AI from $MRVL to $NBIS to $INTC finally had a crash after a few hundred percent rally. Think it’s mainly a lack of understanding of technological shifts mixed with capital preservation culture vs. growth.

@waynexonline $AAOI themselves gave a $471m / month estimate starting H2 2027. If 800g gets revised up sharply across the board, that number might get hiked.