Serenity @aleabitoreddit

@two3pro Trendforce also has a standalone piece for $SIVE capacity projections

$SIVE has its own piece in Digitimes btw, which is appreciated industry recognition outside of Sweden. I think Sivers 100M+ CW DFB laser capacity buildout forced the industry to revisit its models and generated considerably more coverage. BC it puts Sivers into T1 laser capacity convo w/ $COHR, Sumitomo, Furukawa, $AVGO, Landmark, and $LITE if it executes on its ramp. But outside of that, CIOE 2026 channel checks were really meaningful since the community found Sivers is working with Chinese pluggable players + setting up an office locally. I'm getting dejavu to the time I pointed out $SIVE + $JBL at OFC for their 1.6T LRO, but nobody believed the link until there was an actual press release. Anyway, proud to see this little company growing up

Just as a pep-talk statistic ahead of Fed decisions tomorrow. 50% of $NVDA employees are reportedly now worth over $25 Million. They didn’t get to that number paperhanding shares ahead of every macro scare or rate hike.

@FabioCHZ I also would cheer on a futuristic redesign. I think it’s more of a Waymo “friendly companion” type vibe focused on B2B commercialization rather than exciting retail.

@blkslymn I’m a fan of $CCXI since they’re targeting commercialization first with companies like $AMZN to $MELI. I think they could get a higher valuation from retail it looked like the terminator and can backflip.

$CCXI releases their Digit 5 next-generation humanoid. Thoughts? https://t.co/r0Gb05cnd5 https://t.co/skypt5ahP0

Some color on current memory environments for the $MU / $SKHY bros: "There is zero risk of memory prices dropping" per Team Group GM Gerry Chen. - Memory module makers have received notices warning of drastic cuts to their 2027 supply allocations. Some could receive 50% or less of their 2026 allocation. - Upstream manufacturers have reportedly sold out nearly all of their 2027–2028 capacity. - DDR5 supply, in particular, is projected to come in at less than 80% of previous expectations. - Chen expects prices to continue rising 20–30% quarter-over-quarter into 2027 (source Digitimes) - Chen's commentary on $MU is that even before their new MegaFab capacity comes online Q4 2027 at the earliest, orders for 2028 through 2029 are already fully booked. So that there's virtually no relief in sight to current shortages. Sharply lower allocations, fully booked capacity into 2029, and future price hikes doesn't quite sound like the AI buildout is slowing down.

I've seen comments from Jim Cramer today supporting hedge funds that short Leopold's "nonsense" $SNDK / $DRAM / SK Hynix type calls. As well Cramer calling $CRWD a "Must Buy". I'm not sure if Jim Cramer sees a $241B company labelled "Cybersecurity" and thinks of it as safe... while ignoring all their fundamentals. But with Crowdstrike, you have a ~145x FY2028 fwd P/E company, growing revenue 26% Y/Y. That Cramer thinks is a "must buy". And then you turn your eyes to the AI capex beneficiary theme that Leopold is long on. With names like $SKHY / Samsung in $DRAM... Both FY2027 ~2.8-3x fwd P/E off analyst projections. -> Samsung LTAs to 2031 (70% capacity) for durability... -> Minimum price floor + no price ceiling type contracts from SK Hynix. -> Memory shortage much tigher for the next year. -> DRAM/NAND % of hyperscaler capex goes higher (est. 68% per Trendforce) -> 2027 hyperscaler capex projections all hiked. Then with $SNDK, 50% FCF margins, 80% gross margin projections into 2030. Only Situational Awareness position I'm in disagreement with is $CRWV due to debt interest eating FCF, but I can make a similar bullish argument with $BE, $INTC, $AMD, and others. Not quite sure about short-term, but over the medium run: It's hard to not see Leopold's positions pulling an Inverse Cramer due to overwhelming fundamentals.

@Retardlnvestor I now own 2 whole shares of $IREN

$IREN CEO on Anthropic call for frontier slowdown: “Even if models never improved from here… just rolling out what they can already do would take more compute than the world can build for years” I agree, and current narrative is reminiscent of the $NVDA DeepSeek selloff or the $GOOGL TurboQuant scare. Guess what happened? These scares once or twice a year all turn out to be immaterial to the overall AI buildout. Especially when we have contracted demand all the way into the 2030’s now from advanced packaging to memory procurement.

@KhalidIshaq85 I mean $ESMT just did ~$111m net income of the month of July off a $2.5B MC. And it looks like their core product prices are going to get hiked a lot H2 from new Trendforce data. The selloff looks ridiculous to me, but feel free to make your own decision on this.

NOR flash “Severe Supply Shortage” with high density continued increases of 90-110% for H2. I wonder who sells both high density NOR and SLC NAND? *cough cough, $ESMT* For H1 hikes: NOR: +100–120% SLC NAND: +130–150% For H2 hikes: High-density NOR: 90-110% in H2 SLC NAND: ~70–75%. Obviously there’s others from Winbond / Macronix / Gigadevice, but my idea and position with ESMT is that it’s the largest beneficiary of the shortage relative to size. (they sell NOR: >256Mb) The moderate bearish part is: “For mid- and low-capacity products of 128Mb and below, additional capacity from Chinese suppliers is gradually coming online. Price increases for consumer-grade products are therefore expected to moderate” However, this update is overwhelmingly bullish for earnings of legacy memory players. Let the ASP hike games continue.

Man Ray: are you long Samsung? Patrick: Yup. Man Ray: Samsung has memory LTAs extending to 2031? Patrick: Yup. Man Ray: And it’s trading at ~2.8× 2027E P/E? Patrick: Yup. Man Ray: So you’re buying Samsung? Patrick: No, I’m selling on a 4% drop because X said memory will crash from AI slowdown

I assign essentially 0% probability that Anthropic or OpenAI will slow down frontier development in any meaningful way. And that majority of the "regulation" they try making is regulatory capture to slow down competition. 1. Anthropic/OpenAI will not willingly hand over their lead to Gemini, xAI, Meta, or another frontier lab. -> Elon will want a slowdown to catch up with OpenAI. -> OpenAI will want a regulatory framework to slow down xAI + competition. Every lab has an incentive to support rules that constrain competitors more than they constrain itself 2. The US is not going to meaningfully slow frontier AI development while China continues advancing. (as seen with Trump's post today about rejecting AI slowdown). It would be probably the most flagrant national security risk if China leapfrogged the US in capability. Especially when both sides have called frontier AI capabilities "cyber nuclear weapons" 3. China will not slow down frontier AI development. That is a given. It will be theater if any of these parties agrees so publicly, because behind the scenes: -> They'll likely keep on progressing, whether it's OpenAI, the US Government, or China. If they wanted to slow down, they could have done so themselves at any point in time: Yet everyone is still fighting over the scarce resources to run AI as seen with memory procurement from Samsung going all the way to 2031. Or the $NVDA / $AVGO supply constrained 70-100%+ Y/Y growth protections. So I suggest people unfollow the clowns on X that predict AI stocks from $NVDA to $TSM to $MU will crash for engagement. All this does is cause retail to panic short term and hand over the keys to the kingdom over to others.

Tech people in real life: I have shares in “ $TSLA, $GOOGL, $SPCX. “ People on my X feed/comments: - Leveraged Micron, Sk Hynix calls all the way from $1M to $28M down to $4M - calls on short dated tanker freight futures because $AXTI 3000% 1Y returns wasn’t enough. - Long $PLTR short $LULU because inverse Burry indicators - Long Swedish high beta CW laser suppliers for CPO because it reminds them of $NVDA bottlenecking EML - “AI is going to end human civilization” so this is a signal for longer AI capex duration + trade wars so long $EQR cause tungsten. Gap between finance X and normal finance/tech people is also insane. I can’t help but feel proud that I’m partly to blame.

It’s the weekend but surprised I missed this from $ORCL earnings. Implications for $NBIS to $IREN are pretty positive since: Oracle said all GPU capacity for renewal were resold +20% premium above previous contracts. Majority of the equipment was 4Y+ and older… So another L for the Burry’s rapid GPU depreciation thesis. And W for $NVDA and the Neocloud party.

@Itachidata I mean… short dated tanker freight futures outperformed $AXTI and all my ideas. So my main takeaway is that there’s always more obscure things I can learn

What's the next $BWET if you guys have ideas? Need more weird ideas like short dated tanker freight future ETFs... I didn't know this existed until last week. https://t.co/kguL6svZNj https://t.co/R5E7pmARDw

Looks like Situational Awareness is back: Sources say Leopold bought options in $AMD, $BE, $CRWV, and $DRAM. And was active in other stocks such as $SKHY, and $SNDK. Little surprising since option IV across the board is quite high.

@haydeninvestsX That’s just an example of short sellers using tens of accounts from old crypto marketing campaigns. To spread disinformation about a company. Different than farming engagement

Of course! All it takes is a surprise announcement like “Sivers powers Innolight” like they did with $JBL or $GFS. Since we narrowed down the pluggable players working with Sivers to China as a geography from channel checks + potentially larger scale. Could be anytime or never, who knows.

Haha I feel bad for the guy at the $SIVE booth. Genuinely thanks everyone for helping crowd source channel checks, really appreciate it! Think the most interesting update overall from Innolight channel checks was explicit confirmation that lasers across 70mW-200mW power range have seen ASP going up. Sivers also disclosed they raised prices. That should support gross margin expansion for laser suppliers in future quarters as higher pricing flows through.

Memory is a lot simpler since they're already in a supercycle, and we have LTA + capex visibility on a lot of the companies. I treat photonics as the next memory supercycle for 2027-2028, and it's earlier on. But seeing all the shortages with CW/EML even before the major ramp makes me more excited. There's a lot more alpha to be discovered in terms of determining what companies are higher beta to CPO/NPO, etc. such as Foci for FAUs/ Sivers for CW DFBs given not as much economic participation in previous cycles like pluggables for 800G.

@Allstarsv16 who do you think posted the original thesis on $IQE https://t.co/4pb3DcDWku

Yep, I'm personally high conviction on the AI trade (especially photonics/memory) despite macro. - $NVDA gave forecasts for $1.3T hyperscaler capex ($100B+ above BofA analyst expectations) - $SPCX Wells Fargo forecasts are ~$263B for 2027. - $127B spend in 2027 for Anthropic/OpenAI model training + inference from internal investor documents (WSJ). - Even the Pentagon (US gov) is looking to fund the AI buildout, with $5B potentially into Fluidstack. What sectors do I think capex flows hit the hardest? Photonics + Memory. Trendforce for example est. DRAM and NAND to be 68% of hyperscaler capex in 2027. So when all that memory procurement spend hits the balance sheets of $MU, $SNDK, Samsung, $SKHY with 70-80%+ margins. I don't think these companies care about short term macro scares. And when your leading memory companies are all allocating capacity for DDR5/HBM or high end memory, with little visibility on legacy memory supply coming online. What does that say about the durability of ESMT/Etron/Winbond and others? And when your optical content/GPU goes up for rubin ultra + $META / $GOOGL TPU v9, etc. Alongside TAM eg. $131.4 billion (+81% revision) for 2027 optical module forecasts. Who benefits from supplying all that lasers during a shortage other than $LITE / $SIVE / $AAOI / $COHR? I think the overwhelming fundamentals + growth of some of the AI sector companies will outperform macro.