Serenity @aleabitoreddit

Thanks, love reading the comments! Goldman Sachs raised Innolight PT to 2581 RMB. Roughly 163.6% upside from current valuations. But the largest thing is its 2026–2028 earnings est revision raised by a whopping 65%/108%/119%, based on: - Much higher silicon photonics module volumes - scale out, scale up, scale across volumes - 1.6T/3.2T lifting blended ASP + margins - increase in AI capex This is typically very material read through on the optical sector since: I tend to think of Innolight as a $TSM (semi capex) type read on how the photonics landscape is doing. Eg. Higher silicon photonics penetration means more TAM for cw lasers like $SIVE (cw) / SOI wafer demand for $SOI. ASP hikes for future gen is positive for the other optical markers too. Think my other takeaway outside the report was Innolight stating 800g demand was growing more significantly than expected from their transcript on the 12th. Which in turn signals more demand for names like $AAOI to $LITE next earnings. TLDR: GS gives high earnings projections during a time of massive corrections. Fundamentally, broader photonics ecosystem should be happy when it’s ER time.

$META in talks to lease compute to Anthropic in a $10B dollar deal. Seems like they saw how profitable $SPCX $45B compute deal was. But just goes to validate Neocloud business models like $NBIS, $IREN, and co if hyperscalers are copying their homework. Source: NYT

Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash. My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks. In the memory, photonics, robotics, and upstream semis, (on margin) which all tend to be higher beta than others. But reduced leverage recently from the crash. I see a lot of people making fun of the drop or AI names, saying it’s obvious that: - “AI is a bubble” - “memory/kospi is a bubble” - “photonics is a bubble” - “humanoids won’t get anywhere” - “neoclouds will get replaced by hyperscalers like Meta” And a bunch of retail + bots saying “sell everything, it’s never going to recover”. But I have conviction that all these themes are backed by structural revenue growth or technological shifts. And I’ve had similar drawdowns back when there admin threatened global tariffs, before markets pulled off a recovery. I personally have a longer horizon + higher tolerance for volatility than others, to see how this plays out. Especially considering a lot of retail view things on a week to week basis: no, my thesis isn’t wrong yet if I project revenue inflection in H2 2027 and it’s 2026 now. Anyway, feels bad short term just wanted to share anyway for transparency.

@johnoao CPO hasn’t scaled up yet. Lot of their earnings come from 2028 TAM for FAU. There’s just a lot of uncertainty recently due to CPO delay reports and $GLW glass bridge.

@LetsGoBflo17 I actually like $IREN fundamentally post Mirantis acquisition. Since it combines software orchestration with their existing secured GW capacity. But not hopping onboard personally unless they address executive stock based compensation and financing mechanics though.

Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash. From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue start of Q3 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC. Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly earnings… when it’s 2026? Same applies to my CPO sector exposure like $SIVE, an architecture shift led by $NVDA. If scale out volume ramps from H2 2026 into 2027, and scale up heavily volume ramps into 2028. Is it “over” that $0 -> $91B TAM expansion (per GS) hasn’t even hit yet? With robotics like Agility, is it over in 2026 if the listing hasn’t even happened yet and humanoids haven’t ramped? I personally think current market conditions are a reflection of liquidity and leverage, not individual fundamentals. It’s brutal for everyone to see KOSPI, TW, Nikkei, and AI, space, robotics sector stocks crash recently. Especially when there’s a lot of irrational behavior stemming from those leverage. In the end, we can’t tell you what stocks to buy, what timeframe you should sell, how to size your positions, or what you should do. Only share personal thoughts or research and track if they get validated over time. So it’s extremely important to build your own thesis, since everyone has unique risk tolerance or investing timeframes. And that usually leads to having higher conviction during crashes.

@babybluecream Yeah, my $EWY longs crashed quite a bit. I still think the operating income that SK Hynix and Samsung produces will catch up to the MC eventually, so I’m holding my memory positions. Regardless, not a fun time to watch Asian markets from Nikkei to Taiwan to Kospi drop so much.

Kim Sunwoo of Meritz Securities: "This Is Not the Time to Sell Samsung Electronics and $SKHY" They claim markets are excessively misunderstanding the situation with semis. And that DRAM shortage will intensify in the second half of this year. - H2 2026: "suppliers can fulfill only 75%–80% of DRAM demand". - 2027: "fulfillment is expected to fall into the 60% range." In the article, they attached market forecasts that show SK Hynix with a 2027 3.5x P/E and Samsung a 3.9x P/E. Think the $INTC CEO said it best around timeframes with his quote "no relief in memory supply or pricing until at least 2028". Especially after $MU 16 LTAs with favorable take or pay volume contracts... memory demand seems structural.

My guess is we’re close to market bottom on semis from $INTC to $LITE. A good indicator is if everyone on $RDDT blew up their portfolios to $0.

I’m not sure if you’re aware but the entire AI sector is dropping indiscriminately right now. A $1T company like Samsung is down -26% this month. $MRVL is down -31%. So higher beta names tend to move a lot more like $AAOI and $SIVE with their 50% drops. But recoveries tend to be a lot more volatile like $AEHR 50% single day gain after ER.

Morgan Stanley listed $SIVE as the three core CPO laser players alongside $LITE and $COHR in their note 3 days ago. Fidelity Research, JP Morgan and others have started to take active positions. They recently raised an oversubscribed institutional round at 57 SEK. This is all ahead of US NASDAQ listing. I personally see short term liquidity disconnects relative to forward revenue around now and I'm sure institutions are capitalizing on it.

I think people tend to forget that $LITE went from a $3B valuation to $60B+ in 2 years time from owning the EML chokepoint. This was before the 9x TAM expansion to ~$154B per GS by H2 2028. $SIVE has the opportunity to dominate the next CW chokepoint with 1.6T and CPO. And it's sitting at ~$1.1B now.

Lot of people were curious about $SIVE capacity volume ramp modeling through fab-light (Win Semi + others): Using 10% of Win's wafer capacity as a low-end allocation (65% yield assumption, $50-$75 ASP): Sivers would support $341-$512M worth of annual array revenue. Given upper end of managements 50-60%+ gross margin target, would be roughly: $205–307M of annual gross profit. Against Sivers current ~$1.1B MC, would be ~: 3.6–5.4× MC/gross profit if this capacity scenario plays out in 2028. And at 15% would be $307–461M in gross profit (2.4–3.6× MC/gross profit) Sivers CEO also replied that they're working with more fabs for capacity. And from an older deck, there looks to be more qualifications since 2024. So capacity targets might be larger than what's stated here as CPO takes off. I also expect to see revenue pipeline projections hiked in future quarters, as more qualification suppliers to into HVM. _ As for demand side, CW also happens to be very bottlenecked. Lumentum are buying CW off the open market due to EML obligations from their ER transcript. And $AMD are signing LTAs to secure CW capacity (from Trendforce). So when Sivers is ramping with $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, O-NET and others... Given the current constraints, it's highly likely any independent qualified capacity that comes online would be absorbed. And as a cherry on top, Morgan Stanley named $SIVE (~$1.1B) as one of the three leading CPO laser players . Alongside $55B+ players Coherent and Lumentum in their recent note for a reason... _ TLDR: Sivers only needs a low end allocation from Win to make substantial gross income relative to current valuations. I think the largest revenue upside that isn't modeled in if they TAM expansion with M&A after US NASDAQ listing. By copying the Lumentum playbook with Cloud Light to build out entire transceiver modules or with optical engines.

I personally think valuations are extremely stupid now on $AAOI and $SIVE. With AAOI you're doing $5.62B annualized revenue (probably higher), by midpoint next year. And it's a $8B MC. With Sivers, I would est. it's close to ~5 forward 2028 P/E off 10% win allocation, 65% yield, and $75 ASP.

Today, $MU announced it signed memory LTAs with $QCOM. Interesting reaction to see Micron proceeded to drop 5.37% right after. Doesn’t quite feel like there’s anything individually wrong with memory or AI names with all these structural agreements signed? More like the tail end of deleveraging / margin cascades.

@SVTrivo No leaks yet on what companies $AAPL is buying. Regardless, my guess is that they're trying to become more self-reliant after what happened with $GOOGL + $META and OpenAI. Which would signal AI capex hikes, which markets definitely aren't expecting from someone like Apple.

@michaelsikand DRAM 20%+ hike for next quarter, $SNDK LTAs with $META, $MU 16+ LTAs. Market: proceeds to sell off memory. 800G transceiver revision sharply upward? Lasers completely sold out into early 2029? Market: sells off photonics and laser companies.

@shopaholicdivas Maybe something like Sambanova or other inference companies is my guess. $AAPL is sitting on an absolute warchest right now.

$AAPL looks to acquire AI chip companies for running AI (Source: The Information) Right now, $MSFT, $META, Amazon, Google are carrying AI capex spend. But what if Apple joined the others after M&A? A possible scenario is that they revise capex largely upward for their own AI buildout. Since they probably witnessed Google cutting off Meta from compute constraints... or what happens when you partner with OpenAI for LLMs. Then learned how important it is to have your own infrastructure. This scenario would be quite bullish thematically from optical networking to foundries and something markets would not expect? We'll see what happens.

I don't see any fundamentally wrong. There's probably going to be large corrections from time to time flush out margin/leverage before things move higher. And this month seems like that time of year? $POET confirmed your big optical giants like $LITE, $COHR are completely sold out for the next 2 years, and likely into 2029 for photonics. Innolight confirmed 800g transceiver upward revisions 3 days ago, so that should be positive for $AAOI and the others. Samsung became the most profitable company in the world, and continues to project DRAM hikes for future quarters. $MU signed 16+ LTAs showing memory demand is structural... $META + hyperscaler capex plans are on the higher end of projections. I wouldn't conflate short term price movements with longer term trends. And as seen with $AEHR, recoveries tend to be extremely fast (eg. 1M of corrections wiped out overnight).

$NVDA CEO, Jensen Huang in Tokyo today said: "The reports are not true. Vera Rubin is already in production. Giant amounts of production incoming" As a flat denial to the accusation that their AI servers would be delayed. Jensen appears to be using the Umbrella term for Rubin Ultra/Kyber, then pointed to current gen ramp. Regardless, lot of damage has been done already to Nvidia supply chains stock prices, after the multiple delay reports. Even if Nvidia refuted them by clarifying Kyber change was an architecture optimization, not impacting timelines. It's a very dangerous and growing trend for folks to post overreaching broader claims from technical nuances to grow viewcount... Especially if they get Jensen has to respond. In the end, I'm trusting $NVDA on timelines since they probably have the greatest visibility into their own supply chain.

Well, looks like SLC NAND is forcasted to rise up 120-170% for H2 2026 per Trendforce. There's $MU (21%), Kioxia (20%) as largest share, but clearer beneficiaries appears to be: 1. Winbond (2344): ~15% of the SLC NAND market 2. Macronix (2337): ~11% market share 3. SkyHigh Memory via Puya Semi: ~14% market share Given Micron at $1T and others are a bit large relative to SLC NAND TAM. (source: Q1 2026 Winbond presentation/Trendforce).

It's nuanced, $AEHR implications was more toward broader silicon photonics related ramp. Which could include 800g/1.6T pluggables, or CPO. If they directly named CPO, Msscorps would be a very clean readthrough. It just got hit really hard recently from that delay claim (even after $NVDA refuted it), since it's it's upside seems tied to CPO yields in specific. So it's positive, just uncertain.

@RiversSmith3 Bro I just came out from surgery, unfortunately I'm not able to listen to $AEHR earnings call while bleeding out thx.

$AEHR back up +36.4% today off earnings! 2027 guide: $130-$150m (160-200% growth) from 2026 revenue. Sees opportunity to guide higher (assumes no memory revenue or little to none from newly benchmarked AI customer). Q4 bookings: $60.7M, effective backlog is $100.6M. - Lead AI processor wafer-level burn-in customer is significantly ramping their products. - Engaged with additional AI processor customers who are evaluating wafer-level burn-in. - Benchmark customer, which was a “major supplier of AI accelerators, CPUs and network processors” “exceeded their expectations. From management: The potential revenue opportunity from one of these devices is "significant to Aehr". So another benchmark win for potential HVM in the future. - Wafer level burn-in benchmark with a "global leader in NAND flash completed". Now evaluating a development agreement for HBM/NAND Seems like $SNDK since there was HBF related discussions from last quarter I think. - "Our package level burn-in business for AI processors also gained momentum over the year … from our lead hyperscale customer for Sonoma systems" - Silicon photonics customer already ramping, newer networking customers has forecast additional systems Basically the amount of global semi companies that map to $AEHR is pretty ridiculous across silicon photonics, memory, AI processors, and others. I don’t quite think that $130-$150m guidance is representative of actualized revenue for 2027 if these hyperscalers/semi companies convert to HVM. Typically with these types of qualification into HVM players, markets don’t really judge it by current quarter, but what’s to come. And it looks very positive so far in terms of reactions... $116 -> $60 -> $94 all in the span of a month is pretty insane volatility tho, so good to know what you're holding.