Kuppy @hkuppy

Every time someone recommends I look at European equities, they should instead read a story like this and feel nauseous… It’s a lost cause until new leadership comes in. But to save Europe, they probably need to break it in the process. I’ll just buy the wreckage then… https://t.co/36dJmeKxgJ

@calvinfroedge He basically looted $DOLE while shareholders suffered. Not very honorable way to make money…

RT @hkuppy: I’m sort of conflicted here. I’ve been a “semi-permanent” Lukoil shareholder for half a decade now😩😩. So I’m rather annoyed the…

I’m sort of conflicted here. I’ve been a “semi-permanent” Lukoil shareholder for half a decade now😩😩. So I’m rather annoyed they keep droning my assets... On the other hand, I’m up to my eyeballs in US refiners and these attacks have sent the crack screaming…. Looking on the bright side, I guess I’m “hedged” by accident…😂😂

@ManchesterUtd81 @InvestInOnG I think they expand SRE to large refiners. Its insane that guys like $CLMT are adding $50c per gallon to gasoline so that they can then tallow into diesel.

RT @ClarkSquareCap: Korean shitco trading at a negative enterprise value, with real estate worth 2x it's market cap: "we are committed to r…

Really hope he’s bringing my $SBER dividends…🤞🤞 https://t.co/VjNdtNIyrA

@FishtownCap Indeed. And MPLX seems quite cheap too.

The amazing thing is that despite everyone bitching about Gulf Coast 3-2-1 prompt cracks in high $50s, refiners aren’t actually earning good returns currently. Add back $15 of RIN cost and they’re earning $40 cracks. Pull out $10 of refining + logistics cost and you have $30 margins. Subtract $3/bbl of maintenance cost and you’re at $27. Now use 90% yield and you’re at $24. Capacity costs ~$30,000 per bbl to build today (and takes 5-7 years). You get ~90% average up-time. So $24 margin X 330 days = $7,920 of margin per unit of refining capacity. It’s a 26.4% return on the $30,000 build cost before you have to finance your inventory, cover corporate SG&A and whatnot (just look at the idiotic special tax that $MPC agreed to yesterday in California). Call it a low/mid 20% annualized return for the highest cracks in a lifetime. These refiners aren’t over-earning by any stretch. Go look at the $MPC or $VLO indicator sheets on their websites. And these are the best run refiners in the world. Their returns on replacement cost so far this year are mid teens. Why is no one adding capacity?? Because until 6 months ago, returns on capital were single digits. The share prices are still well below replacement cost. Why add capacity when you can do buybacks at a lower cost per bbl of capacity?? Wake me when these things trade at 1.5x or 2x capacity ($45k -$60k per bbl of capacity) and then maybe supply comes. That’s still a long way away. So much of the industrial economy has under-earned for over a decades. There hasn’t been supply added because the market penalized supply. Then an event happens and the market realizes that supply was actually tight. You need more than 2 months at low/mid 20s annualized returns on capital before supply has a response. Some call this inflation. Others call this gross margin. Others call it a return to acceptable returns on capital. You need retained earnings for many quarters, followed by visibility on future cracks before supply has a response. When you can hedge 2035-2045 cracks at $60, then the supply comes. Until then, who the hell would finance a supply response?? For investors, go figure out who’s been under-earning for years. For policymakers, extending the Small Refiner Exemption to all refiners, and it will immediately reduce prices for consumers. A lot of the problems with diesel, are caused by idiotic policy decisions forcing guys to run biodiesel plants at a loss, subsidized by a handful of large refiners. For everyone else, just remember that a functioning economy means that everyone has to eventually earn their cost of capital…

I really like the new marketing pitch from $JOE If you buy a home from one of their developers, 2 blondes take you out hunting…🤭🤭

With 208m $SPCX shares short, probably a good day to remind everyone🤭 https://t.co/u6eam3ydKT

@RecoveryTrade @phil_hk @michaeljburry Great Eagle is quite cheap

@TgMacro Curious to see $NVDA raising $500b to fund their customers, and it’s red on the day. That’s a lot of guaranteed circular sales…

RT @hkuppy: The $JOE pumps will continue…🤭 Not too late to flee NYC for somewhere nice like the Panhandle… Florida official thanks 'Econo…

@jimmyfpe I assume the lines cross. Nothing wrong with ALCO either

The $JOE pumps will continue…🤭 Not too late to flee NYC for somewhere nice like the Panhandle… Florida official thanks 'Economic Developer of the Year' Mamdani with savage Times Square billboard https://t.co/bLt4OR3u8j

Toasting some pretty impressive $MPC earnings at Bouza vineyard, just outside of Montevideo. $17/shr and Q3 is gonna be better. Can they do $25/shr and keep it up for a few quarters?? Can’t believe I bought most at like 10x quarterly earnings… MCGA!! https://t.co/LoKFzkKW6V https://t.co/A2pUCMplpW

@therealkrupster @Mangan150 We own a lot of BYMA

RT @hkuppy: West Point is now teaching a class on how to surrender to an inferior enemy when Hyperliquid shows weekend QQQ in the red… They…

West Point is now teaching a class on how to surrender to an inferior enemy when Hyperliquid shows weekend QQQ in the red… They call it the Trump Doctrine🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

RT @BowTiedMara: Today, Pampa presented to the President and national government officials a US$2.7 billion investment to build the largest…

@pineconemacro UTI and LINC pulled back. I love this trade

RT @TylerHardt: @hkuppy $NVDA

I really hope they weren’t storing my $SBER dividends there…🤭 https://t.co/2CAuWIfZMV

@DeptOfDryWater They’re gonna yap about their cats on $RDDT🤭