Dumb Signal has archived 858 posts
from Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) and classified
29 as real trade calls — each priced the day it was
made and graded by direction-signed returns at 1D / 1W / 1M / 1Y, deletion-proof.
RT @crypto_banter: 🚨ETHENA IS A 5X FROM HERE!
@cryptomanran and @CryptoHayes discuss Ethena:
$ENA is down ~99% from its all-time high.
VC…
$ENA
RT @laurashin: Arthur Hayes is betting AI agents will need their own money.
His answer: $FLOP, a token built as a unit of compute, with no…
$FLOP
Holy $ETH, thank you Buffalo Bill Bessent for proving once again you ain't nothing but a money printing fiend.
Thank you for your service!
$ETH
@Sayadja1 @flop_labs Don’t worry , if all you do is create a wallet, get testnet $FLOP from the faucet, and spend it on inference, you will get mainnet tokens.
$FLOP
Some asked, "why are you doing an AI / crypto project when you think AI is a bubble that will burst?"
Very simple, the bubble is in debt issued to build data centers and stocks of unprofitable hyperscalers and frontier labs. Price is what you pay, value is what you get. I 100% believe in the agentic economy, and the compute overcapacity built with borrowed money bolsters my thesis for @flop_labs
I’m coming out of retirement to lead @flop_labs
$FLOP is food for your AI agent.
No presale
No VCs
100% fair launch
Let’s build the agentic economy’s currency together fam and get fucking rich!
More details to come, but expect a massive airdrop in Q4, genesis block Q1 27 https://t.co/ChnTAAFRUh
↗ Quoting @flop_labs
$FLOP
My essay "Yen-quake" walks readers through how Buffalo Bill Bessent plans to manipulate the dollar-yen exchange rate and turn the money printer back on.
"While a weak, weaker, and weakest yen propelled global asset markets higher over the past decade, like all good things for wealthy financial asset holders, it must end. The yen is the most undervalued currency globally, and it is a bone of contention for both major powers, the US and China, and critically, the ordinary Japanese voters. There are three ways to cut the yen Gordian knot, but the US Treasury and Japanese politicians prefer only one.
I will explain the mechanics of each method to strengthen the yen and then conclude with why the final one is the preferred option. Then I will talk about politically how to execute the third option. Finally, which is why you read my human slop, I will detail why Bitcoin and crypto will moon as dollar liquidity surges higher.
The three options:
1. The BOJ raises rates aggressively so that the dollar-yen interest rate differential, at least at the short end, evaporates.
2. The government cajoles domestic and public institutions like the GPIF to change their investment mandate to sell foreign and buy local assets.
3. [PREFERRED OPTION] The MOF repos its holdings of US treasuries to the Fed in exchange for dollars. Then sells dollars to purchase yen in the forex market.
Before I get into the details, degens should ask themselves why talk about the yen strengthening now. So many folks over the previous decades proclaimed now is the time that the yen must strengthen and unwind the global carry trade. Two weeks ago, the US and Japan’s monetary mandarins carried out a joint currency manipulation, euphemistically called an intervention. Collusion and conspiracy confer different nomenclature when you are a plebe versus the state. US Treasury secretary Buffalo Bill Bessent proclaimed he wants the Fed to raise the FIMA Repo Facility’s counterparty limit so that the MOF can use its massive stash of assets to defend the yen.[4] The MOF also proclaimed that it is working hand in hand with the Americans to slam dollar-yen lower.[5] The authorities are telling us they are on board with a change in global currency relations; therefore, we must listen."
Substack link to full essay on my bio.
$BTC
"Situationship" is my $BTC bull porn essay on how the AI bubble will burst, and why the money printer will go hyper brrrr and take us back to a rip roaring bull market.
"The question of internal framing is the key variable that determines whether AI is a bubble. But before we understand the bubbliciousness of AI, the better question to ask is in what kind of businesses are we investing, or in relationship terms, “What are we”? The dichotomy, at least to my Luddite brain, is the distinction between what investors believe AI CAPEX represents: is it technology or real estate? The zeitgeist is that this multi-trillion dollar build out is “technology” and must receive insane growth multiples by the market. But I believe AI CAPEX is just another boring real estate play. However, in this instance, what’s inside the data center is compute that creates silicon-based lifeforms that will aid human civilizational development in the most profound way since the railroads.
The distinction between real estate and compute is important because the recently post-pubescent hedge fund bro, the bank, the private credit fund, and ultimately the government believes funding the building of a data center and power plant is like lending to Apple, instead of lending to Lehman Brothers. The bursting of the AI bubble will occur because financial intermediaries, tacitly supported by the US and Chinese governments, will over build data centers and everything that goes into providing the substrate to house chips that train AI models and conduct inference. Therefore, the AI bubble is a credit story like 2008 and not an earnings story like 2000.[1]"
Link to my substack and the full article on my bio.
$BTC
RT @MaelstromFund: Maelstrom is pleased to announce that Tadge Dryja (https://t.co/lFQwuGh2pc) is the 6th recipient of the Maelstrom Bitcoi…
$BTC
RT @thinkingcrypto: 🚨 CLARITY Act Has NO Bearing On Bitcoin's Price! |
Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, shares his…
$BTC
RT @Estszy: $SYN
Has a nice retest. If your willing to gamble a little to ride the @CryptoHayes wave. Now might be a decent time to enter.…
$SYN
One Dollar $SYN is within reach, tell me why I'm wrong ...
$SYN
Keep hatin'
$SYN which way will it go?
$SYN
RT @FloodCapital: GM @elonmusk did you know anyone in the world with a crypto wallet can trade options right now on $SPCX, expiries that do…
$SPCX
@CryptoHayes
Jun 28, 2026 · 20:26 ET
stock
1st mention
trade
intent
I still want to be long the Hyperliquid ecosystem but I need some asymmetry. It’s time for an options dex to properly take on Deribit. Hypercall, owned by $SYN, is that challenger. Let’s see if they can cook.
$HYPE$SYN
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $HYPElong |
-2.7% | +5.6% | -19.3% | — | +36.4% |
| $SYNlong |
+10.1% | -26.6% | -74.2% | — | -69.2% |
RT @lukasruppert: there is no 28.8M CARDS unlock - tokenomist data is WRONG
there will be a regular pre-seed unlock, which has been happen…
$CARDS
RT @CoinDesk: NEW: @CryptoHayes rejects claims he dumped on followers when he sold his $HYPE position, and emphasized that he's simply shar…
$HYPE
RT @ThematicMarkets: @CryptoHayes explains how the color of your passport shapes your views on Bitcoin.
Watch the full discussion here: ht…
$BTC
RT @CoinDesk: Is CARDS one of the most undervalued protocol in crypto right now?
@CryptoHayes thinks so, and he's making it his highest co…
$CARDS
The ticker is $CARDS degens. The thesis is solid. The price will be pamping!
Yachtzee bitches 😘😘😘😘😘😘😘 https://t.co/yPeEOBHBus
↗ Quoting @MaelstromFund
$CARDS
RT @Bankless: INTERVIEW: @CryptoHayes - The AI Crash That Could Send bitcoin:native to $1M
Arthur thinks the AI trade is sucking the oxyg…
$BTC
RT @CoinDesk: @CryptoHayes joins @jennsanasie on Markets Outlook to respond to the HYPE selloff drama, break down the new Fed chair's first…
$HYPE
@blknoiz06 It’s a shitcoin in your hood of solana , one of the youngins is going to drop some alpha on Friday
$SOL
RT @RealAllinCrypto: Join us with @CryptoHayes, Co-Founder of BitMEX & CIO at @Maelstromfund, as we speak about the AI bubble, Bitcoin’s we…
$BTC
Happy Friday the $SPCX IPO edition. Can Barron von Elon save the market?
$SPCX