Dumb Signal has archived 669 posts
from Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) and classified
28 as real trade calls β each priced the day it was
made and graded by direction-signed returns at 1D / 1W / 1M / 1Y, deletion-proof.
RT @reisnertobias: Hyperliquid vs. Coinbase
$COIN
RT @artemis: BREAKING: Hyperliquid is quietly outgrowing Coinbase.
Trading Volume (Notional):
β’ Coinbase: $1.4T
β’ Hyperliquid: $2.6T
Thaβ¦
$COIN
@mikealfred Iβm in the process of collecting all outstanding IBIT structured notes and will build a vol surface for our internal trading purposes. When we flag an interesting tigger point we will take positions against it and tell you guys about it after.
$IBIT
$BTC dump probably due to dealer hedging off the back of $IBIT structured products. I will be compiling a complete list of all issued notes by the banks to better understand trigger points that could cause rapid price rises and falls. As the game changes, u must as well.
$BTC$IBIT
Maybe I should have looked for the black swan given the $BTC moves today.
$BTC
If I told you I'm shorting $RIVER hoping it goes to zero, would all you degens go long so as to liquidate me bc I'm the Jim Cramer of crypto?
$RIVER
RT @TheBitcoinConf: WE'RE EXCITED TO ANNOUNCE CO-FOUNDER OF BITMEX & CIO OF MAELSTROM ARTHUR HAYES AS A BITCOIN 2026 SPEAKER π₯
βBITCOIN WIβ¦
$BTC
What should I do if $RIVER hits $100 by the beginning of next week?
$RIVER
$BTC needs some of that $RIVER energy.
$BTC$RIVER
$3350 Metaplanet LFG
I stand with SANAE!
$3350
@CryptoHayes
Jan 13, 2026 Β· 16:17 ET
stock
1st mention
trade
position
My essay "Frowny Cloud" will drop tomorrow. My key degen trade for this first quarter is LONG: $MSTR and $3350 (Metaplanet) as levered plays on $BTC getting its groove back.
$MSTR$3350$BTC
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $BTClong |
+1.5% | -7.3% | -30.6% | β | -34.2% |
| $MSTRlong |
+3.7% | -7.4% | -28.9% | β | -46.1% |
| $3350long |
| | | | |
Degens, message your CEX relationship manager and tell them to list $RIVER!
@cz_binance @benbybit stop being a bunch of bitches list $RIVER!
$RIVER
Pamp it
$WILD https://t.co/BjYSiAsKO0
β Quoting @real_n3o
$WILD
$ liq likely bottomed in Nov and is inching higher. Itβs time for crypto to pump up the jam.
$LIQ
@EliBenSasson You wouldnβt be saying that if it was you that was buried in an avalanche and your partner didnβt have their beacon and shovel ready to dig you out.
Thatβs like buying $ZEC and not shielding it. Whatβs the fucking point then β¦
$ZEC
RT @vnovakovski: The ticker is $LIT.
https://t.co/1Ckqexgdg0
$LIT
I travelled to the top of a volcano and found a grave site of $ZEC bears.
$ZEC
RT @Kylechasse: AI Mania Won't Stop
@CryptoHayes says the US is fully financialized.
The stock market is the economy.
That means AI stocβ¦
Nibble nibble.
$ZEC on sale.
$ZEC
| return | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | now |
| $ZEClong |
-9.0% | +17.5% | +48.2% | β | +34.3% |
$BTC dumped cause BOJ put Dec rate hike in play. USDJPY 155-160 makes BOJ hawkish.
$BTC
I think @keoneHD made a valid point that @MaelstromFund past / present portcos that we advise and/or invested have big locked token supplies. My advice to founders is always get to 100% vested for the team and investors asap , ideally immediately.
Then one of two things happens:
1. The price nukes to close to zero, and stays there if there is no organic demand based on usage.
2. Or the price dips and recovers because there is organic usage.
I hope we have done our job as investors to only back projects that generate organic usage and thus in the medium run we will make money, and if we failed at our job we deserve to lose all our money.
Unfortunately, no founder has taken this advice so I canβt point to a successful outcome based on this theory. Maybe Monad can be the first to prove me right, and the amazing tech can generate the usage to challenge $ETH and $SOL.
$ETH$SOL
@keoneHD combine your amazing tech with amazing tokenomics. Unlock all the tokens and let the market send $MON to β¦
$MON
@MrOmodulus @ngocquang19877 This is an argument it get into with TradFi people. If you believe rates are going down buy the fastest horse, $BTC and gold, if you can stomach the vol.
$BTC
@keoneHD Unlock all the tokens right now, and then you will be different than all other supposedly $ETH killers that came before you. I dare you.
$ETH
The Tether folks are in the early innings of running a massive interest rate trade. How I read this audit is they think the Fed will cut rates which crushes their interest income. In response, they are buying gold and $BTC that should in theory moon as the price of money falls.
A roughly 30% decline in the gold + $BTC position would wipe out their equity, and then USDT would be in theory insolvent. I'm sure some large holders and exchanges will demand a real-time view of their B/S so they can assess the solvency risk of Tether. Get out your popcorn, I expect the MSM to run wild with this, especially all the editors with TDS who want to shit on Lutnick and Cantor for backing this stablecoin.
$BTC