DUMB//SIGNAL

Arthur Hayes @CryptoHayes

Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder of BitMEX & CIO @Maelstromfund

Dumb Signal has archived 669 posts from Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) and classified 28 as real trade calls β€” each priced the day it was made and graded by direction-signed returns at 1D / 1W / 1M / 1Y, deletion-proof.

669 tweets stored Β· 117 qualifying Β· all first mentions all trades

Recent trade calls

@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Feb 11, 2026 Β· 20:20 ET stock
RT @reisnertobias: Hyperliquid vs. Coinbase
$COIN
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Feb 10, 2026 Β· 00:23 ET stock 1st mention
RT @artemis: BREAKING: Hyperliquid is quietly outgrowing Coinbase. Trading Volume (Notional): β€’ Coinbase: $1.4T β€’ Hyperliquid: $2.6T Tha…
$COIN
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Feb 07, 2026 Β· 20:08 ET stock
@mikealfred I’m in the process of collecting all outstanding IBIT structured notes and will build a vol surface for our internal trading purposes. When we flag an interesting tigger point we will take positions against it and tell you guys about it after.
$IBIT
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Feb 06, 2026 Β· 23:38 ET stock 1st mention
$BTC dump probably due to dealer hedging off the back of $IBIT structured products. I will be compiling a complete list of all issued notes by the banks to better understand trigger points that could cause rapid price rises and falls. As the game changes, u must as well.
$BTC$IBIT
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Feb 05, 2026 Β· 01:13 ET stock
Maybe I should have looked for the black swan given the $BTC moves today.
$BTC
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Feb 03, 2026 Β· 15:08 ET stock
If I told you I'm shorting $RIVER hoping it goes to zero, would all you degens go long so as to liquidate me bc I'm the Jim Cramer of crypto?
$RIVER
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Feb 02, 2026 Β· 23:38 ET stock
RT @TheBitcoinConf: WE'RE EXCITED TO ANNOUNCE CO-FOUNDER OF BITMEX & CIO OF MAELSTROM ARTHUR HAYES AS A BITCOIN 2026 SPEAKER πŸ”₯ ”BITCOIN WI…
$BTC
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Jan 26, 2026 Β· 18:23 ET stock
What should I do if $RIVER hits $100 by the beginning of next week?
$RIVER
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Jan 25, 2026 Β· 15:57 ET stock
$BTC needs some of that $RIVER energy.
$BTC$RIVER
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Jan 13, 2026 Β· 20:48 ET stock
$3350 Metaplanet LFG I stand with SANAE!
$3350
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Jan 13, 2026 Β· 16:17 ET stock 1st mention trade position
My essay "Frowny Cloud" will drop tomorrow. My key degen trade for this first quarter is LONG: $MSTR and $3350 (Metaplanet) as levered plays on $BTC getting its groove back.
$MSTR$3350$BTC
return1D1W1M1Ynow
$BTClong +1.5%-7.3%-30.6%β€”-34.2%
$MSTRlong +3.7%-7.4%-28.9%β€”-46.1%
$3350long
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Jan 06, 2026 Β· 15:36 ET stock
Degens, message your CEX relationship manager and tell them to list $RIVER! @cz_binance @benbybit stop being a bunch of bitches list $RIVER!
$RIVER
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Dec 31, 2025 Β· 01:09 ET stock 1st mention
$ liq likely bottomed in Nov and is inching higher. It’s time for crypto to pump up the jam.
$LIQ
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Dec 30, 2025 Β· 16:47 ET stock
@EliBenSasson You wouldn’t be saying that if it was you that was buried in an avalanche and your partner didn’t have their beacon and shovel ready to dig you out. That’s like buying $ZEC and not shielding it. What’s the fucking point then …
$ZEC
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Dec 30, 2025 Β· 00:42 ET stock 1st mention
RT @vnovakovski: The ticker is $LIT. https://t.co/1Ckqexgdg0
$LIT
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Dec 29, 2025 Β· 23:51 ET stock
I travelled to the top of a volcano and found a grave site of $ZEC bears.
$ZEC
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Dec 19, 2025 Β· 15:05 ET stock
RT @Kylechasse: AI Mania Won't Stop @CryptoHayes says the US is fully financialized. The stock market is the economy. That means AI stoc…
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Dec 01, 2025 Β· 10:20 ET stock trade intent
Nibble nibble. $ZEC on sale.
$ZEC
return1D1W1M1Ynow
$ZEClong -9.0%+17.5%+48.2%β€”+34.3%
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Dec 01, 2025 Β· 00:45 ET stock
$BTC dumped cause BOJ put Dec rate hike in play. USDJPY 155-160 makes BOJ hawkish.
$BTC
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Nov 30, 2025 Β· 02:30 ET stock 1st mention
I think @keoneHD made a valid point that @MaelstromFund past / present portcos that we advise and/or invested have big locked token supplies. My advice to founders is always get to 100% vested for the team and investors asap , ideally immediately. Then one of two things happens: 1. The price nukes to close to zero, and stays there if there is no organic demand based on usage. 2. Or the price dips and recovers because there is organic usage. I hope we have done our job as investors to only back projects that generate organic usage and thus in the medium run we will make money, and if we failed at our job we deserve to lose all our money. Unfortunately, no founder has taken this advice so I can’t point to a successful outcome based on this theory. Maybe Monad can be the first to prove me right, and the amazing tech can generate the usage to challenge $ETH and $SOL.
$ETH$SOL
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Nov 29, 2025 Β· 21:57 ET stock
@keoneHD combine your amazing tech with amazing tokenomics. Unlock all the tokens and let the market send $MON to …
$MON
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Nov 29, 2025 Β· 21:34 ET stock
@MrOmodulus @ngocquang19877 This is an argument it get into with TradFi people. If you believe rates are going down buy the fastest horse, $BTC and gold, if you can stomach the vol.
$BTC
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Nov 29, 2025 Β· 19:40 ET stock
@keoneHD Unlock all the tokens right now, and then you will be different than all other supposedly $ETH killers that came before you. I dare you.
$ETH
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Nov 29, 2025 Β· 18:43 ET stock
The Tether folks are in the early innings of running a massive interest rate trade. How I read this audit is they think the Fed will cut rates which crushes their interest income. In response, they are buying gold and $BTC that should in theory moon as the price of money falls. A roughly 30% decline in the gold + $BTC position would wipe out their equity, and then USDT would be in theory insolvent. I'm sure some large holders and exchanges will demand a real-time view of their B/S so they can assess the solvency risk of Tether. Get out your popcorn, I expect the MSM to run wild with this, especially all the editors with TDS who want to shit on Lutnick and Cantor for backing this stablecoin.
$BTC

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