DUMB//SIGNAL

Arthur Hayes @CryptoHayes

Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder of BitMEX & CIO @Maelstromfund

Dumb Signal has archived 858 posts from Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) and classified 29 as real trade calls β€” each priced the day it was made and graded by direction-signed returns at 1D / 1W / 1M / 1Y, deletion-proof.

858 tweets stored Β· 150 qualifying Β· all first mentions all trades

Recent trade calls

@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Dec 19, 2025 Β· 15:05 ET stock
RT @Kylechasse: AI Mania Won't Stop @CryptoHayes says the US is fully financialized. The stock market is the economy. That means AI stoc…
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Dec 01, 2025 Β· 10:20 ET stock trade intent
Nibble nibble. $ZEC on sale.
$ZEC
return1D1W1M1Ynow
$ZEClong -9.0%+17.5%+48.2%β€”+310.9%
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Dec 01, 2025 Β· 00:45 ET stock
$BTC dumped cause BOJ put Dec rate hike in play. USDJPY 155-160 makes BOJ hawkish.
$BTC
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Nov 30, 2025 Β· 02:30 ET stock 1st mention
I think @keoneHD made a valid point that @MaelstromFund past / present portcos that we advise and/or invested have big locked token supplies. My advice to founders is always get to 100% vested for the team and investors asap , ideally immediately. Then one of two things happens: 1. The price nukes to close to zero, and stays there if there is no organic demand based on usage. 2. Or the price dips and recovers because there is organic usage. I hope we have done our job as investors to only back projects that generate organic usage and thus in the medium run we will make money, and if we failed at our job we deserve to lose all our money. Unfortunately, no founder has taken this advice so I can’t point to a successful outcome based on this theory. Maybe Monad can be the first to prove me right, and the amazing tech can generate the usage to challenge $ETH and $SOL.
$ETH$SOL
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Nov 29, 2025 Β· 21:57 ET stock
@keoneHD combine your amazing tech with amazing tokenomics. Unlock all the tokens and let the market send $MON to …
$MON
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Nov 29, 2025 Β· 21:34 ET stock
@MrOmodulus @ngocquang19877 This is an argument it get into with TradFi people. If you believe rates are going down buy the fastest horse, $BTC and gold, if you can stomach the vol.
$BTC
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Nov 29, 2025 Β· 19:40 ET stock
@keoneHD Unlock all the tokens right now, and then you will be different than all other supposedly $ETH killers that came before you. I dare you.
$ETH
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Nov 29, 2025 Β· 18:43 ET stock
The Tether folks are in the early innings of running a massive interest rate trade. How I read this audit is they think the Fed will cut rates which crushes their interest income. In response, they are buying gold and $BTC that should in theory moon as the price of money falls. A roughly 30% decline in the gold + $BTC position would wipe out their equity, and then USDT would be in theory insolvent. I'm sure some large holders and exchanges will demand a real-time view of their B/S so they can assess the solvency risk of Tether. Get out your popcorn, I expect the MSM to run wild with this, especially all the editors with TDS who want to shit on Lutnick and Cantor for backing this stablecoin.
$BTC
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Nov 29, 2025 Β· 18:09 ET stock 1st mention
RT @Lighter_xyz: Will Black Friday be green or red? Trade these new equity perps at 10X leverage to find out: $AAPL, $AMZN, $MSFT, $GOOG…
$AAPL$AMZN$MSFT$GOOG
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Nov 29, 2025 Β· 17:57 ET stock
I don’t know the first thing about your tech. I’m sure it’s good, everyone that speaks about you and your team say you guys are smart as fuck. But your tokenomics pretty much guarantee $MON will be Down Only. Tell your community how the chain will absorb the 90% of tokens without cratering. Tell your community about the amount of usage needed so that there is organic demand to buy the token from the early investors and team members who will sell it once it unlocks. There is nothing wrong with selling, your early supporters an team members deserve a good return for taking risk. Tell the community how you will maintain this price level with ~1% monthly inflation just due to staking rewards. Fucking educate me on that. I don’t give a fuck what your tech does, I’m a trader. Write me a wall of text about the flows and make me look like an idiot. Until then , $MON is a hot potato. It’s fun to scalp with but the general trajectory will be lower just due to supply and demand.
$MON
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Nov 27, 2025 Β· 04:11 ET stock trade
I'm out. Send this dogshit to ZERO! $MON 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭
$MON
return1D1W1M1Ynow
$MONshort +13.1%+32.0%+43.2%β€”+26.4%
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Nov 24, 2025 Β· 06:55 ET stock
Ser just some simple maths will tell you the only way $HYPE overcomes the uncertainty is massively growing rev. Even if the team pinky swears to not sell, there is nothing holding them to that. So you have to assume a >0% amount of daily sell pressure. The market is already discounting this bc, P/FDV fell 50% since the price ATH in July.
β†— Quoting @andyyy
$HYPE
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Nov 24, 2025 Β· 06:51 ET stock
@ThePhunky1 who gives a fuck. $btc rallied from 16k to 100k and rates were much higher due to RRP delince. qty of credit is more important than the price. we could hit ath with fed funds at 10% if the fed did unlimited qe at the same time.
$BTC
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Nov 24, 2025 Β· 06:10 ET stock trade intent
minor improvements in $ liq: - fed qt stops dec 1, this wed will prob be last fall in b/s - us banks increased lending in nov we chop below $90k, maybe one more stab down into low $80k's but i think $80k holds. might start nibbling, but leave the bazooka until the new year
$BTC
return1D1W1M1Ynow
$BTClong -1.1%-2.2%-0.8%β€”-5.1%
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Nov 21, 2025 Β· 08:52 ET stock
$BTC undershooting decline in $ liq. Bottom is near, but be patient before blowing your load. Wait for US stonks to puke as well. We are playing for more money printing, and for that we need AI tech stocks to crater.
$BTC
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Nov 19, 2025 Β· 17:25 ET stock trade position
What’s your hedge? Mine is $ZEC.
$ZEC
return1D1W1M1Ynow
$ZEClong -2.2%-21.7%-33.9%β€”+110.7%
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Nov 15, 2025 Β· 21:58 ET stock
I want for Xmas is $ZEC This week's 10 ZEC meme contest give away, is please make a meme about what you want for Xmas from Black Santa. https://t.co/WQkluaeECn
$ZEC
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Nov 14, 2025 Β· 20:52 ET stock 1st mention trade
This chart is just so stronk I aped more. $ZEC > $XRP
$ZEC$XRP
return1D1W1M1Ynow
$XRPlong -0.7%-12.6%-14.9%β€”-33.3%
$ZEClong +4.7%-22.1%-38.0%β€”+112.7%
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Nov 05, 2025 Β· 06:38 ET stock
RT @brianman1: Free shit it good for bitcoin @CryptoHayes @Scaramucci @SALTConference
$BTC
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Nov 05, 2025 Β· 03:39 ET stock
Team Red got smoked today by Team Blue in the US. Time for Trump & Bessent to run the printer back turbo in 2026 to hand out goodies so Team Red doesn’t lose big in Nov β€˜26. I hope ur long $BTC and $ZEC.
$BTC$ZEC
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Nov 05, 2025 Β· 02:26 ET stock
$BTC (yellow) -5%, $ liq (white) -8% since US debt ceiling raised in July. TGA build up sucked $ out of the system. When US gov shutdown ends, TGA will fall +ve for $ liq, and $BTC will rise ... and $ZEC will go up MOAR!
$BTC$ZEC
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Nov 04, 2025 Β· 10:47 ET stock
RT @coinbureau: πŸŽ™οΈCB PODCASTπŸŽ™οΈ @nicrypto chats to @CryptoHayes. They dive into why the 4-year Bitcoin cycle is dead, how $BTC could still…
$BTC
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Nov 04, 2025 Β· 01:43 ET stock 1st mention trade
Please understand the risks you are taking when using leverage and debt in defi. You should never be liquidated. With that said, thanks for the low entry on some more $WILD tokens. Can't wait for the Open World launch in Dec. https://t.co/ZbsVWFfgOE
β†— Quoting @real_n3o
$WILD
return1D1W1M1Ynow
$WILDlong +2.8%-6.3%-22.5%β€”-31.3%
@CryptoHayes @CryptoHayes Oct 31, 2025 Β· 06:23 ET stock trade position
Recently when people in #crypto ask how I am, I just say $ZEC.
$ZEC
return1D1W1M1Ynow
$ZEClong +1.7%+60.6%+5.9%β€”+250.1%

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