Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI

@PartyOnG It is too.

Sui dominance is a function of its beta. It has a low free float, 70% locked up in staking and it's earlier stage, and therefore any $ of capital in, or out, leads to outside moves over time. Meanwhile the density of its network (TVL per active user) remains constant in up and down markets (a sign of network coherence), and higher than most of its peers. It still has a way to go but the sui:native team is shipping the future of finance and the agentic economy rails. See you at @SuiBasedcamp in Singapore!

Blockchains are the economic coordination substrate for all digital economic activity. Once you accept that, you have to accept that they’re vastly underpriced. Agents are going to do more of the buying, selling, negotiating and settling on our behalf, and its going to happen faster than anybody is ready for. This is the core of my Exponential Age framework, and my Everything Code framework is why it cant be stopped.  Agents are machines. A machine cant hold a share certificate or read a mortgage deed. It needs everything it touches to be a token it can read, hold and move in a fraction of a second. So everything gets tokenised... stocks, bonds, property, money, contracts, data, energy, the lot. Think about everything in the world that isnt a token today… All of that WILL become a token and get priced onchain. And all that value will settle on the L1. These are the infrastructure substrate, which is a different thing to the applications layer that sits on top of them, and a different thing to Bitcoin, which is the store of value layer.  At scale the L1s will run the whole global economy... and we wont even see it.

@aamodo

@Thabt0000

Funnily enough I wrote about this yesterday... BlackRock gets the rails right: - AI is machine native intelligence, crypto is machine native money - Agents cant use banks so they need blockchains - Stablecoins are the money they pay with - Compute becomes a tokenised asset class But they stop at money and compute. The machine economy needs far more than that... identity, contracts, attention, energy, information itself. All of it gets tokenised, and most of those asset classes dont exist yet. Everything will be a token. And I mean everything.

@litcapital Agreed. Its insanely good... It makes you realize what the actual point is in driving unless you're driving a vintage car on a windy road in beautiful mountains or whatever.

@molusol @solana I need eye bleach.

Meta now makes $2.9m of revenue per employee. In early 2023 it was $1.4m. Same company, same platforms, a headcount that has barely moved... and twice the revenue per head in three years. Ive been staring at that ratio all summer, for a different reason, and it keeps turning up in places it has no business being.. . Amazon's Revenue Per Employee went from $292k in 2021 to $498k now, compounding at about 12% a year on 1.5 million people. Nvidia did $1m three years ago and $5.1m last year, and if you run the latest guide against the headcount it's close to $10m per human. The correct obvious read is that is this AI productivity showing up. But revenue per employee is a bloody strange thing to get excited about at a broader macro level. It's a company metric at first glance. It shouldn't tell you anything about a blockchain or a city or a country... except it does. The number I use to judge a blockchain is value per active address. Cities have GDP per resident. Countries have per capita GDP too. Same instrument, pointed at a different network. Value divided by nodes. So why does one ratio read many different kinds of network? Because it was never a company metric. Its Metcalfe's Law as a valuation metric. If network value goes with n squared, then value per node goes with n... thats just the maths. A network where Metcalfe is real shows rising economic density, every node added makes the average node worth more. Flat or falling density on a rising node count means the connections arent carrying anything. And the density of revenue per employee (economic density) isn't random either. Amazon applies intelligence, Meta runs on it, Nvidia manufactures it. Half a million per head, three million, ten million. Density concentrates where the intelligence is produced and thins out as you move away from it. Next time someone shows you a network by its node count, ask for the other number...how valuable each node is... Read my new "Postcards from the Universal Code", free every month. Link below. https://t.co/7Jklr7QSPP

@nic_carter Yup. It's insanely good and you don't want to go back to bothering to drive on the day to day. Driving feels now like a waste of focus and mental energy.

We've got to the phase where the servicing of debt is everything and recessions or market collapse collapses are not allowed. The answer is to turn on the printing press via the central bank balance sheet or other measures of liquidity. We learned that in 2020 because an indebted system cannot allow the collateral to collapse, but yes, acceleration in liquidity usually requires stress but once you understand this, you understand that stress is the opportunity and not the risk, that's when you buy everything Essentially, the big left tail has been removed from markets. All they have to do is devalue the denominator and assets go up

Shorter terms, BTC has broken the downtrend vs NDX... and put in some perfect DeMark lows. (You can get those on Trading View - DeMark 9-13...I love DeMark). 2/

My view for a couple of months is that BTC outperforms the NDX going forwards as fiscal dominance and the need to refinance meets The Everything Code (the need for more liquidity to fund it). As rates broke higher, crypto rose sharply... there is signal in that... 1/

If you’re sweating short time horizons you’re fucking everything up. Crypto hasn't been through a cycle. A cycle needs liquidity to drive it, and what we got was liquidity being dampened while a massive bull market ran in something else. The actual driver hasn't changed. Central banks and the banking system have to keep financing interest payments by issuing money to offset the ageing population. That is The Everything Code. It’s been playing out like this for decades and it doesnt care about your quarter.  Own Nasdaq, own crypto, go to the beach.

The constraint on the AI buildout was never money or demand. It's electricity. The physical world simply can't keep up with how fast intelligence is being asked for. So the hyperscalers may slow their chip buying for a while... not because they've lost faith but because the chips would be sitting in a warehouse waiting for power. That pause is exactly when Nvidia brings out the next generation. And we need more powerful chips endlessly, because the demand for intelligence isn't just growing exponentially, it's in a DOUBLE exponential. Same thing in Korean semis. It's the same story everywhere. I wrote the whole thing up this week... why the buildout cannot stop, and where it's all heading. Linked below.

This year the hyperscalers started spending more than their cash flow and issuing debt to cover the gap. That sounds like the beginning of the end... but it isn't.  They're borrowing because speed in this race is EVERYTHING. He who gets the most compute wins... They have to borrow or else they'd fall behind. They literally cannot stop.  The first one to blink loses the whole game, and they all know it. I wrote the whole thing up this week... why the buildout cannot stop, where the money comes from, and where it's all heading. Linked below.

What would happen if, say, OpenAI went bust? The doomers will say that's the minute the "bubble" pops. But Google or Microsoft would just buy all of their compute the next morning. Now they've got double the GPUs and they're further ahead than they were the day before. David made a great point in this clip... People keep confusing a financial event with the technology. If someone blows up, the infrastructure doesn't vanish, it just changes hands, and whoever ends up with it will have a lead nobody can close. A bankruptcy wouldn't slow the buildout... it would actually feed it. I've written the whole thing up today, on why the AI buildout cannot stop and where it's all heading. I'll link it below.

How do you value an L1? Well, take Ethereum for eg. Now imagine turning the switch off. All the stablecoins, DeFi, every L2, every NFT... everything built on it goes to zero L1s attract assets, capital and velocity because they are dense with intelligence. Ethereum has the most developers, its programmable, it has the whole ecosystem around it. Ive had the DCF argument so many times and its just nonsense... you're not valuing cash flows, you're valuing everything the chain secures. As we move into the Exponential age and the entire human economy plus a whole new agentic economy moves onchain, enormous value accrues in these base layers. It’s all so obvious…

Debasement drives everything. Nothing stops it until AI and robots replace population growth. Nasdaq has beaten the debasement rate by roughly 12% a year... a great asset to own, because tomorrow is always more digital than today. Bitcoin has beaten it by 89% a year. That's why crypto is the super massive black hole of asset allocation. It becomes the most powerful asset we've ever had. The greatest performing asset of all time. This is the crux of my Everything Code framework... why debt forces central banks to debase, why markets endlessly go higher, and why only tech and crypto beat it.

I still think this is the trade of the next 24 months...NDX vs NDX. Im long both but crypto has, and will, outperform over time, in my opinion... and a double DeMark confirmation on monthly and weekly helps...

The application layer might make you more money... if you pick right. But picking right is hard. The base layer is straightforward. Activity is concentrating on a handful of chains, and those chains are becoming the settlement layer for what comes next: billions of AI agents transacting at machine speed. You can't run that economy on banks and clearing houses that close at weekends. It'll run on the L1s. So you don't need to guess which app breaks out. Allocate to the rails the whole machine economy will run on, size to your appetite, and let the secular trend do the work. This is the crux of my Everything Code framework... the only things that beat the debasement of currency are the great secular trends, and this is the biggest one of all.

Valuing crypto has always meant guessing how many people would eventually come onchain.  We charted adoption curves, compared them to the internet, argued over when we'd hit a billion users…  But even the most active human has a limit. A full time trader executes a few times an hour, for maybe twelve hours a day because sleep and food and life still exist. Thats the ceiling of human paced activity and its what this entire asset class is priced on. But now, billions of agents are about to come onchain and agents have no ceiling. Circle's CEO is talking about tens of billions of them. Stripe is planning for a billion transactions per second. Visa, Mastercard, Coinbase, Klarna and Google are building agent payment rails right now. The total addressable market for crypto was never the number of humans. Its the number of economic actors, and we are about to find out what happens when that number grows by orders of magnitude and never sleeps. Activity we cant comprehend, and all of it flowing through the networks the agents run on. This is Reed's Law... value scaling not with the number of users but with the number of groups they can form. Agents dont just transact. They hire each other, form swarms, assemble into temporary companies for a single task and dissolve again a minute later. Every group is new value. Its an exponential built on top of an exponential, and nothing like it has ever existed.

The cycle has more runway than people think. Treasury policy, a weaker dollar, and liquidity are all pointing the same direction. I sat down with @AndreasSteno to talk about it... and why the AI and CapEx boom might still be chapter one. As ever, please enjoy!

Zcash is one hell of a chart... I'm still very long Sui, ETH and Sol too. Just kept adding all into the big sell offs and hold, comfy in spot and let the game play out over time. Patience in a secular trend almost always wins if you can manage your emotions.

This is a chart that I watch closely. Bitcoin got over two standard deviations oversold versus Nasdaq and is now sharply moving higher. Let's see but I think over time crypto should outperform the Nasdaq over time. Secular trends like this are super helpful in asset allocation