Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI

Look what I dug up. November 2013. As far as I know the first proper macro write up of Bitcoin anyone had done, telling my GMI subscribers to buy it at $200. Everyone thought I'd lost it. A $200 internet coin, taken seriously in a macro letter. Wasn't mad though... just early. Thirteen years later and I'm still here, deeper in it than ever. What started as one early call has become the centre of how I think about the entire future. Crypto isn't a side bet anymore. It's one of the only things that outruns the debasement of your savings, and the smart contract networks are becoming the rails the whole exponential economy runs on. Here's the bit most people still haven't understood... Bitcoin and the smart contract networks aren't the same bet. They're not even the same kind of thing. One is where you store your wealth. The other is what the entire economy gets rebuilt on top of. That's what I've written up this week. The whole picture, thirteen years on.

For years I've written that the entire economy is heading on-chain, and that the smart contract networks are the only rails it can possibly run on. Here's the thing people still haven't understood. Billions of AI agents are about to come online, and they're going to transact constantly... paying each other for compute, data, services, at a scale and speed no human market has ever seen. The existing financial system physically cannot carry them. It’s too slow. And it looks like institutions are catching on. Just last week: Franklin Templeton called AI agents the “use case that finally drives blockchain adoption” Coinbase's agent-payment rails got adopted by Google and Amazon. Samsung put stablecoins in the Galaxy wallet. David Solomon went against the rest of Wall Street to back the Clarity Act. And this is just one week. The rails are being laid, the machine economy is coming to run on them, and most people are still whinging over the daily price movements. We're about to onboard billions of agents onto a financial system that didn't exist twenty years ago. This is fucking wild.

I try to see everything through the bigger picture. When every screen is red, the most useful thing I do is close the laptop and go for a walk in nature. It's how I hold my conviction when everything in me wants to panic. And I'll be honest with you, because pretending otherwise would be insulting. Crypto is painful right now. It is not the gift that keeps on giving that it once was, and all of us in it are feeling poorer and feeling like shit. I feel it too. But feeling bad and being wrong are not the same thing. Nothing in the actual mechanism has broken. The business cycle has already turned. Liquidity says crypto is running cold, not dead. And I still believe, deeply, that layer 1s are the place to be... Ethereum, Solana, Sui. I sat down and wrote my full thinking out today. My up to date thesis on crypto right now, why I'm still here, and where I think the real money gets made from here.

Bitcoin is 87% correlated to global liquidity. The NASDAQ is 97% correlated. Which tells you something most people never realise. These assets are not really trading on earnings, or news, or whatever the story of the week is. They’re tracking the amount of money in the system. Bitcoin just swings harder around that line, because on top of liquidity it is young, volatile, emotional, and still riding a network adoption curve. Sometimes it runs hot. Sometimes it runs cold. Right now it is running cold, so people think something is broken. Nothing is broken. It’s doing exactly what it always does. So here is the question. If these assets track liquidity this closely... what if t you could forecast liquidity itself? Well, actually, you can. As I lay out in my Everything Code framework, liquidity is driven by the debasement of currency, and debasement can be forecast years ahead, because the interest payments that drive it are already known today and they lead liquidity by around three years. Bonkers.

When the market gets boring and quiet and everyone turns bearish, I like to come back to the story of how I fucked it all up. And I fucked it up a lot of ways, because crypto is genuinely hard. People think the cycles just repeat. They don't. Every one has a different texture, a different context, and it is so easy to get it wrong. I got in back in 2013. Wrote the first ever macro piece on Bitcoin, and bought at $200, straight into a peak right before it slammed down and I felt like an idiot. But I had a thesis. And the mistake was never the thesis. It was letting the noise talk me out of it... selling, trading around it, being clever, when the only thing that ever worked was holding. That is the whole lesson, and it is the one that matters most at times like this. Crypto is one of the only real secular trends that lets you build wealth against the debasement of your salary. And as the Exponential Age accelerates, it matters more, not less. So when the market gets depressing, I do the same thing every time. I go back to the thesis, and I accumulate. Zoom out.

@GlyphOfHermes BTC has had numerous down 80% cycles but a secular bear market is unlikely at this stage but it will happen when adoption slows

@fitzyOG We've covered Bittensor ecosystem in depth if that's what you mean

Crypto wasn’t invented for the age we came from. When Satoshi launched Bitcoin, we thought we were building a hedge against banks. Digital gold, permissionless money for humans who couldn't access banks. All true. But the humans found it hard. Keys, custody, UX... none of it felt natural. Turns out we were building the base layer for something else entirely. Agents don't struggle with keys, and smart contracts are native to machines. Every UX problem we've spent years trying to solve was a problem because the users hadn't arrived yet. Now they have. The agentic economy needs money that moves at its speed, and crypto is the only system that does. Had the greatest time sitting down with @ErikVoorhees a few weeks ago to dig into where crypto fits in the agentic world. As ever, please enjoy!

RT @RealVision: 10 questions. 10 members. $1,000 each in ethereum:0xa0b86991c6218b36c1d19d4a2e9eb0ce3606eb48. @RaoulGMI picks them live on…

RT @DMattin: Everyone is talking about the AI rally. And even though many are excited, most of them are underestimating what's happening by…

Well we kind of knew that people wanted a lot of Mac Minis for Openclaw... but this is wild. A product that didnt sell amazingly now is the hottest Apple product... all because of AI. However,r Apple is still not actually doing anything about AI integration... equally wild. https://t.co/HLMHUmvY0m

The macro backdrop is shifting. L1 valuations need a rethink. AI agents are eating VC attention. And the Iran War has knock-on effects most people haven't mapped yet. I sat down with @Jamie1Coutts to work through all of it. As ever, please enjoy!

I started by trying to understand markets. Thirty years later I've ended up somewhere closer to life, the universe and everything. The same four rules keep showing up... Along the way I've written three frameworks that have shaped how a lot of people see the world. The Everything Code is what I found when I went looking for what actually drives markets. A debt rollover cycle, managed by liquidity, debasing the currency at roughly 8% a year. That debasement is monetary entropy. Capital routes around it, into whatever can compound faster than the entropy degrades it. Technology and crypto sit at the top of that flow because they are the intelligence layer of the economy. Markets are monetary energy routing toward the highest output of intelligence. The only assets that outperform debasement over extended periods are tech and crypto. The Exponential Age is the realisation that technology has become the substrate. Compute, networks, energy and intelligence are compounding faster than any institution we built was designed to handle, and the gap between the two is the defining tension of our time. The Economic Singularity is where this is heading. Somewhere in the next decade the curve of intelligence per unit of energy turns fully exponential, and the rules every economy we know was built on stop applying. For a long time I thought of these as three separate ideas. Looking at them now, they are three views of the same thing at different altitudes. And underneath all three, the same four rules keep showing up. Efficiency of Intelligence - The universe rewards whatever does more with less. Every system that survives is better at turning energy into information than the system it replaced. There has never been an exception. Compression - Intelligence is the act of representing a vast reality in a much smaller form without losing what matters. Brains do it. Theories do it. Prices do it. AI does it. They are not analogous. They are the same operation. Coherence - Complex systems hold together because their parts synchronise faster than the noise around them. Markets, brains, civilisations, ecosystems. When the synchronisation fails, what looks like collapse is desynchronisation made visible. Selection - Patterns that copy themselves faster than their rivals dominate the medium they live in. Genes did this in biology. Ideas do it in culture. Memecoins do it in markets. Truth is not part of the selection criteria. Replication is. It always has been. What the four rules produce, when they operate together, is networks. The same topology shows up everywhere. The cosmic web. The human brain. Mycelium beneath a forest. The internet. Financial markets. Blockchains. Across fourteen orders of magnitude, the universe keeps building the same shape. That shape is what the four laws look like when you can see them. The Everything Code is what these four rules look like in markets. The Exponential Age is what they look like running through technology. The Economic Singularity is where they are taking us. Three angles, one picture. Underneath all of it, energy is the constant. Consciousness is the substrate. The four rules are the dynamics through which one becomes the other. All of this is one corner of what I call The Universal Code. The same four rules apply to everything else and I mean EVERYTHING... they are universal in the true sense of the word.

The institutions are breaking faster than they can adapt. I sat down with @PeterDiamandis and @salimismail to unpack what happens with AI, crypto, and exponential tech outrun the systems but for a different era. As ever, please enjoy!

@angusshillingto Buy SMH and chill

RT @JamesEastonUK: How did I stay so calm with so much volatility & everyone saying it’s over? Because I have an iron clad framework, I ma…

RT @RealVision: $TSLA just touched long-term ascending support at $346. This level has printed ‘Buy’ three times over the past two years.…

@abhishekf96 @RobinhoodApp I've seen this before somewhere...

@YeedimanMichael I have 2 (X Plaid and Y Performance) but no FSD in Cayman

@Kylechasse Turo

Tesla FSD is nothing short of magic. Just rented a Cybertruck, picked it up at the airport and it drove us directly to the Airbnb. None of the stress of a new city, new roads, new car. Had it for 5 days and never drove myself. It drove perfectly. So easy and liberating

@brianmcgrath Yeah, TSLA, Coinbase for sure... Circle too. Maybe Robinhood. TAN and RKLB will keep going too

Universal Law 1 - The GMI Universal Code suggests that all systems in the Universe evolve towards maximising intelligence per unit of energy (I/E). NVDIA is one of the purest example of this law in action, which is why it attracts so much capital > more efficient intelligence.

@Rhyd0n @DTAPCAP Circular and Coinbase also have weekly 9's and daily 9's and 13's

Excited to help @xMoney_com bring regulated stablecoin payment rails to Europe and beyond.. https://t.co/552GqNp49w