DUMB//SIGNAL

Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI

Founder/CEO Global Macro Investor, @RealVision. Figuring things out at the nexus of Macro, Web3 & the Exponential Age. Not a guru.

Dumb Signal has archived 5,066 posts from Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) and classified 18 as real trade calls โ€” each priced the day it was made and graded by direction-signed returns at 1D / 1W / 1M / 1Y, deletion-proof.

5066 tweets stored ยท 77 qualifying ยท all first mentions all trades

Recent trade calls

@RaoulGMI @RaoulGMI Feb 02, 2026 ยท 13:59 ET stock 1st mention
Extraordinary post if you are interested in Sui and DEEP. What has been built and the vision is unique and big. https://t.co/nUe1bKzUfA
โ†— Quoting @EmanAbio
$SUI$DEEP
@RaoulGMI @RaoulGMI Jan 29, 2026 ยท 09:24 ET stock
Also the gap in BTC vs GMI Global Total Liquidity barely registers but we saw similar in 2015 and 2020. There is nothing abnormal about this current disconnect. Liquidity is rising. All you require is patience and the market should catch up in time.
$BTC
@RaoulGMI @RaoulGMI Jan 26, 2026 ยท 09:46 ET stock
Zoom out and you can barely see the recent gold outperformance over BTC... Remember this is a LOG chart so the moves look less dramatic (I know X loves drama however). From the 2022 peak gold is down -47% vs BTC and from the 2019 peak, gold is down -85% versus BTC.
$BTC
@RaoulGMI @RaoulGMI Jan 07, 2026 ยท 20:01 ET stock
@eyezenhour @SuiNetwork @matteodotsui @0xd34th Matteo is who @EmanAbio actually reports to but it's not public knowledge.
$SUI
@RaoulGMI @RaoulGMI Dec 03, 2025 ยท 23:34 ET stock
@noel_moore @_The_Prophet__ Tesla obviously
$TSLA
@RaoulGMI @RaoulGMI Nov 30, 2025 ยท 14:00 ET stock
@JC_ParetsX I'm quite partial to the monthly log chart of Tesla also same for ETH or Total2ES
$TSLA$ETH
@RaoulGMI @RaoulGMI Nov 28, 2025 ยท 22:44 ET stock 1st mention
The key question is going to be how many L1's are optimal and what configuration of L1 capabilities will prevail. My guess is 5 or 6 with clear leaders and core challengers. The L1 trade is the cleanest as you can use Metcalfes Law approximation models to value them vs DCF models. Network adoption models tend to outperform. Some of the applications later will outperform but it's harder to bet on. My proxy for Metcalfes Law that gives the best correlation is total value transacted per active user. This can be normalized to give like for like comps and then weighted for where they are on the adoption curve. It works well. Using ETH as the base smart contract L1, SOL is still cheap, SUI is super cheap vs SOL, as is NEAR ( no position). An easier way to estimate it, with still high correlation, is stable coin value transacted per active user. Active user are those that transact in stables, DeFi, dex's etc not just buy or sell
$ETH$SOL$SUI$NEAR
@RaoulGMI @RaoulGMI Nov 27, 2025 ยท 19:41 ET stock
If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, it is probably a duck...Crypto is clearly a Metcalfe's Law network model, just like Google, Amazing, Meta, Tesla etc.. almost by definition and using cash flows misses the entire valuation of a network....I would argue we are around 2017 GOOGL in BTC and earlier in ETH.
$GOOGL$AMZN$META$TSLA
@RaoulGMI @RaoulGMI Nov 23, 2025 ยท 17:46 ET stock
@CurationMostly @vladtenev @vladtenev this is the obvious answer. They have 40m+ users to integrate into the HOOD platform.
$HOOD
@RaoulGMI @RaoulGMI Nov 21, 2025 ยท 08:36 ET stock
Utterly brutal crypto markets with relentless, rapid positions unwinding and rumours swirling after 10/10 of impaired market maker balance sheets leading to less liquidity and someone blowing up. It reminds me a lot of 2021 when in a 4 week period Bitcoin fell 56%, ETH -62% and SOL fell -68%. It then sharply reversed and exploded to new highs. That sell off was as baffling as this one. With the macro backdrop still so positive it is hard to think that we won't see something similar here (a sharp recovery) but massive downside volatility like this is not easy for anyone and not certainly something I expected to see at this stage, but it is also not out of the normal. Back in 2019 to 2020 we had a -72% sell off (in a bull market but the sell off was exacerbated by Covid). Back in 2016 to 2017 we had 7 sell offs of over 30% in BTC. Alts always do worse of those periods too (see chart) The current price action is showing no signs of letting up yet even though we are massively oversold, but having lived through huge rapid de-rsking events before in many markets, this too shall pass. My strategy is to add into these sell offs but Im ok with large swings in P&L in a long-term multi-year trend as I've explained many times, but everyone circumstances and time horizons are different. Good luck out there, its ugly and made harder by the lack of actual negative news outside of price. Try to get away from your screens if you can and get into nature to destress.
$BTC$ETH$SOL
@RaoulGMI @RaoulGMI Nov 19, 2025 ยท 21:23 ET stock 1st mention
@iwazaruh @GBrewer17 The real money is actually to be made in owning the gold. See NVDA for details. Late investors use the picks and shovels argument. BTW I missed NVDA but got SMH
$NVDA$SMH
@RaoulGMI @RaoulGMI Nov 19, 2025 ยท 19:16 ET stock
@2000Chip2000 From when we bought SOl between $8 and $30... rode it all the way up, swtiched in to Sui, rode that up? No, I thought not. Its all recorded so your peanut throwing is meaningless.
$SOL$SUI
@RaoulGMI @RaoulGMI Nov 16, 2025 ยท 20:20 ET stock
Ok, if you honestly think everyone's calls are going to be right, you are not a serious person. Also, I bought ETH calls at the end of the last cycle and lost 5% after 11x gains and no, I never owned or promoted Luna. One clip was taken out of context because they cut the end of it
$ETH
@RaoulGMI @RaoulGMI Nov 16, 2025 ยท 20:08 ET stock
I know many of you are scared, worried you fucked it up and think you'll never make it. You need to follow the DFTU rules. You need to extend your time horizon and levels of patience. You are clearly not doing that. Every correction is an existential drama to you. That is a sign you are fucking it up. I've been doing this since I first bought BTC at $200. I've gone through two big drawdowns (-85% and -70%). I've had 95% drawdowns in ETH and SOL. I've sold too early too. It all works out over time if you have the right asset allocation. Remember - when BTC goes down 30%, quality alts go down 60%+. It's normal. BTC normally has 5+ 35% corrections. OTHERS in the last two bull markets saw a couple corrections of 80% and still hit new highs in the index. It doesn't mean your alts will however. You also can't rent someone's conviction on X and hope to win. You can't trade frequently and hope to win (you'll get nailed by taxes too). You can't blame someone else for your mistakes. They are yours alone. You may think the cycle is over. Well if it is, just keep DCA'ing into weakness and your future self with thank you. It takes time to play out and one cycle is not the game. It's not too late to Unfuck your future. All the people bitching on the timeline ... YOU ARE NOT SERIOUS PEOPLE. Please don't fuck this up. I'm looking directly at you...this is the greatest performing asset class of all time, over time. The market gives zero fucks about your time horizon.
$BTC$ETH$SOL
@RaoulGMI @RaoulGMI Nov 02, 2025 ยท 18:29 ET stock 1st mention
@Tyler_Neville_ Maybe Buffet is raising cash to pass the business on to his successor with optimal optionality
$BRK.B
@RaoulGMI @RaoulGMI Nov 02, 2025 ยท 18:12 ET stock
@batsoupyum My view is that ETH and other crypto have been sideways for a while. As ETH rallied, we had liquidity to buy jpegs from profits but now we are all tapped out until ETH or others rally.
$ETH
@RaoulGMI @RaoulGMI Oct 31, 2025 ยท 16:00 ET stock
@TWWM70 @SuiNetwork @orkhan Love this!
$SUI
@RaoulGMI @RaoulGMI Oct 30, 2025 ยท 21:01 ET stock trade
@IndigoKalika I have never sold a token and bought a big chunk more at $2.60 last week. That you for your attention to this matter.
@RaoulGMI @RaoulGMI Oct 30, 2025 ยท 20:55 ET stock 1st mention
Meanwhile Total3ES. Text book wedge.
$TOTAL3
@RaoulGMI @RaoulGMI Oct 30, 2025 ยท 20:55 ET stock
Meanwhile BTC...Just looking mighty fine
$BTC
@RaoulGMI @RaoulGMI Oct 30, 2025 ยท 20:55 ET stock
Meanwhile ETH...Textbook wedge.
$ETH
@RaoulGMI @RaoulGMI Oct 30, 2025 ยท 20:55 ET stock
Meanwhile Solana...Text book wedge.
$SOL
@RaoulGMI @RaoulGMI Oct 30, 2025 ยท 20:55 ET stock
OMG - We aRe AlL GoInG to DIE!!!! I HaD One chanCE tO UnfuCk My FUtuRe! IT's OveR! Meanwhile... Sui. Textbook wedge. (Yes I use "wedge" for all flags, pennants, triangles and all that jazz, dear troll) 1/
$SUI
@RaoulGMI @RaoulGMI Oct 30, 2025 ยท 13:20 ET stock
@RealVision @CryptoWithKris @goldmembrrr Watching
@RaoulGMI @RaoulGMI Oct 24, 2025 ยท 20:26 ET stock
@DeepthroughtX @MajorDuffles They are pioneering large scale battery and solar with Tesla
$TSLA

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