Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI

On Energy and AI: We are all aware of the urgent need for massive new energy infrastructure for data centres and other general needs. The grid is old and the supply is constrained. Investor capital is pouring into nuclear soluations, new gas plants and other opportunities and the bottleneck will be better solved in 5 years+ However, the need for the extra energy is URGENT and IMMEDIATE... The AI race is the most important technology race that will ever occur. It is not just about hyperscalers and their profits, but about the game of nations. There is only one energy solution that can hyperscale in 12 to 24 months and that is solar. China has shown this by adding more than the total amount of energy created by Solar elsewhere globally, in one year. The rise of solar in China is one of the great exponentials. China knows the game here. Everyone else has to play catch up. The Kardashev Scale is the correct way to think about this. The sun is 99.9% of the mass of the solar system and we are harnessing <1% of its energy that hits earth. 1 sq mile on the earths surface receives 2.5 gigawatts of solar energy. Yes, solar panel efficiency is low and usable daylight hours is restricted but the amount of solar panels required in relative terms of the surface size is small. Solar is not yet perfect as the supply of energy is intermittant (nights/bad weather etc) and efficiency is low (but rising as tech improves) but costs are collapsing exponentially, even taking into account panel replacements and no subsidies (it doesnt require them). Some of the issues are offset by batteries which currently solve for 4 hours of extra storage. Tesla's Megapacks are growing at 50% to 70% per year and other players are also scaling fast. Battery tech will only imporve from here too. Just the use of solar + batteries reduces demand on the exisiting grid by upto 65% (you only need to use the grid load for perdiods of time). This helps massively in this rapid scaling to avoid an overload of the grid. Solar + batteries also allows for localised, decentralised energy grids for specifc use - factories, datacenters, etc. The load on the grid will be reduced after 2 years or so when new localised gas plants are built to balance the loads. Gas plants are the cheapest, cleanest and fastest of the fossil fuel solutions but it takes longer to scale than solar and requires a lot of gas pipelines. Weirdly, solar seems to be politicised, but its going to become an economic imperative as nothing else can solve the needs of the massive data centers in the next 1 to 2 years, and no one can afford to be leftr behind in the race to AGI and beyond. AI is the most important technology humanity will ever develop as it replaces us as the apex intelligence on earth and is vastly more energy efficient than humans at compute/intellgence output. The core metric for the universe itself is: Intelligence per unit of energy For this to scale exponentially, AI will replace humans as the primary source of intelligence and the sun's energy is most of the energy on earth. Even oil is just biologically-stored sun energy with finite supply. In terms of investability, there are two opportunities that stand out as long-term plays: The Solar ETF TAN is down 84% from its high, has formed a perfect base on both the log chart and the regular chart. TSLA is the other obvious play as it dominates the large battery sector and batteries account for 10% of total revenues and are growing rapidly and will continue to do so. The Tesla chart is one of the best in the Exponential Age. Anyway, I know because solar is politicised that people will rush to fight in the comments but don't bother unless you can solve the urgent energy needs for AI in the next 1 to 2 years by any other method.... you can't. And yes, dear troll, we all understand that there are lithium, copper and other needs, and yes, there will be an investible bull market in those too (amongst other major commodities) as the business cycle and the Capex cycle heats up... and yes, there will be supply issues if you havent carefully planned/hedged. But you need to warm up to solar... its going to get hot. (Time horizon is now and for the next 5 years+).

@brianmcgrath Amazon, Google, NDX, MSFT etc all have same log charts and for longer and the slope never changed.

Yes but the hard thing is a few players will survive and they will create network effects beyond our comprehension so its rational for such high valuation at this stage, even if we have a capital destruction cycle at some point. The thing I'm mulling over is let's say 2 to 3 big AI/LLM players go bust. The compute/energy will go to the survivors and that hyper scales AI beyond what we know as the current LLM's today. The bet is whether LLM's can exponentially accelerate with RL or if the Labs create new neural networks which have more quantum elements via biological compute or other methods. Waaaay too early to know all these outcomes yet. Zuck understands this and will happily destroy 100's of billions of dollars to get to the next level of AI, because he can afford it and cant afford to lose. Same with Google. The game is the biggest ever played.

I think it needs explaining that although I see an elongated cycle it doesn't mean my analysis is right. The breadth and depth of macro/crypto analytics framework I've added since 2021 is massive and I'm happy with the probabilities currently but things can change... At GMI we have done tremendous amounts of work on this all at the nexus of crypto and macro in The Everything Code. It comprised of over 4,000 charts (serious). However, I am not a guru. We all need to take lifestyle chips off the table to secure our own future.. I can't dictate that. In RV too we will do our best to help as many people as possible, But we are not, and will not be, perfect. This is your choice alone. Not mine. Only you can actually protect your own future and thus limit regret if the market reverses or even it explodes higher. I'm guessing I'll take 25% to 30% off into year end but I don't know yet. It's based on my own circumstances, not yours and its based on my p&l and not yours. Also don't forget that your risk profile is different to mine... I can afford to take outrageously concentrated risks like having 80%+ of my liquid stack in Sui. But based on my work I think Sui it outperforms most others majors. I am not a maximalist and my portfolio can and will change but I will let you know if my analysis changes. My job for myself is to maximise profits with best risk adjust returns. For most, just buy BTC, ETH and SOL My job for myself is to max profits with best risk adjust returns I think are available. The Banana Zone won't fix your shitty asset allocation. If you have had a decent portfolio you will already be up 5x to 10x from the low. If you are newer, don't chase gains, time in the market is vital, you should make money this cycle but here is more to play for over time, You have 5 years or so to Unfuck your Future. Please don't fuck it up. This will be my pinned tweet so you can refer to it. Just let it all play out and take profits on the way. Good luck. My work suggests the next 6 to 9 months can change all our lives but don't bet on it exclusively. If you want to reduce risk and also play for higher prices consider selling some and buying longer dated calls in due course, where you can only lose your premium (as I did in 2021 with ETH and only risked 5% for a potential leg higher which failed). I appreciate your attention in this matter.

RT @Dan1_1111: Perfect buying call some months ago by @RaoulGMI -> RKLB Rocket Lab at 5.50usd nearly 10x with an ATH today at 54usd - just…

Network effects and Metcalfe's Law have always been something that I'm very curious about... And once you crack that, you understand what drives value and price in this Exponential Age... I think the way that Solana has been building network value with their new Seeker phone is v clever! So, I sat down with Emmett Hollyer, General Manager of @solanamobile, to dive deep into their roadmap and why they're betting big on mobile... As ever, please enjoy!

RT @RealVision: Amazon and Walmart are exploring stablecoins. Visa and Mastercard are building onchain. 🤔 What are you waiting for? In t…

@JSeyff @CanaryFunds I havent seen a list of all the crypto ETF's awaiting approval and the timelines. Have you guys put one together recently... may have missed it?

@kdean Here is the original version, updated. We always said it wouldn't continue to exact mirror but contextually should be correct...we've had decent size gaps the other way around in the past too and they ended up resolving by BTC catching up to M2

@PratikKala @cburniske Literally every point of this is wrong .. wallets exploding, stablecoins exploding, BTC on sui exploding and devs exploding

@cburniske My general thesis for the full cycle Is ETH outperforms BTC. SOL outperforms ETH and SUI outperforms SOL due to where they all are on the network adoption curve

@JKoczkodon @RipBullWinkle Then dont assume the worst...the only thing I am connected to is Sui which Im on the board of but still switched most of my entire liquids net worth into

Journey Man's July recap in case you missed it... 00:20 Drinks with Raoul (round 17) 02:00 Charles Cascarilla from @Paxos 05:06 @jvisserlabs 10:30 @fejau_inc + @BittelJulien 18:23 Sandy Kaul from @FTI_US 20:55 @bretttejpaul from @CoinbaseInsto enjoy!

@coinbase @CoinbaseInsto and while you're at it, go to my YT channel and subscribe for more... https://t.co/DxDjjLYYmJ

Fascinated by @coinbase's bigger picture... My good friend Brett Tejpaul, Head of @CoinbaseInsto, joins me on the Journey Man to give us a peek behind one of the largest players in the space. As ever, I hope you find it useful...enjoy!

your weekly crypto setup… https://t.co/HTV6b3me3r

RT @BittelJulien: This ETH chart doesn’t whisper a bullish setup – it shouts. Time to pay attention…

@jeffzhang02 They will build on SOL too but ETH will be dominant for them.

@farokh I'd add Sui to your list gus ser

@sergitosergito The last time in phase 1, BTC doubled and Sui 5x'd

Hi ... need a favour... Can anyone by chance introduce me to @juliahartz the CEO of @eventbrite pls? Thanks!

RT @BittelJulien: Here’s a snapshot from our June GMI report: Robinhood’s now up a staggering 240% off the lows – and the calls we added ba…

@howardlindzon Did you hold on to your very early stage $HOOD investment? It was epic even to IPO stage

RT @BittelJulien: The $COIN calls alone that we added for @RealVision Pro Macro subs in late April are now up over 600%. Macro + Liquidity…

@10XRetrograde @coinbase Same. Well done however!